Push the dollar or be back!Powell dare not say ...

25 years ago, the founder of the American Tiger Fund, the founder of the Asian financial crisis, Julian Robertson has recently died at the age of 90. This made people recall how a century ago, how to push the entire world to the abyss.

In the 1980s, while the then Fed Chairman Paul Walke violently raised interest rates to increase the dollar, Tiger Fund assets soared from $ 8.8 million to $ 22 billion in 20 years. In that Asian financial crisis, the World Bank estimates that more than 100 million middle classes in Asia have become poor.

Before the outbreak of the Asian financial crisis, the Fed has always used contraction as the tone of monetary policy. Federal fund interest rates increased from 3.25%in February 1994 to 6%in February 1995. In December 1994, the collapse of the pizza in Mexico triggered the Latin American financial crisis. After the collapse of the Thai baht in 1997, Asian currencies such as Lingji and Han won in Malaysia fell one after another. A large number of speculative funds have exited, and this chain crisis comes to an end.

Although Robertson, who has entered the history for the tiger, has entered history, the Fed's austerous currency policy has strongly pushed the US dollar performance.

The US dollar accounts for about 90%of global foreign exchange transactions, and the daily transaction volume before the new crown pneumonia is about $ 6 trillion. The continuous strengthening of the dollar is a bad news for most emerging market countries. In the past half century, whenever the US monetary policy has tightened, the US dollar will strengthen, the US dollar asset yields have risen, and the capital of emerging market countries fled, and the financial and economic crisis will follow. When Washington and Wall Street use the US dollar hegemony against emerging markets, most of the poor countries actually have to nose in the United States, and this time is no exception.

The US dollar has performed strongly since 2022, surpassing other security assets such as gold and US Treasury bonds, but tortured emerging market currencies and yen euro together. Since the dollar has strengthened, 36 kinds of currencies in the world have depreciated at least one -tenth of this year, and Sri Lanku and Argentine Peso have depreciated more than 20%. In Europe, the hedge fund betting on currency trend will then target the currency of the China -Europe countries. Hungarian Forest, Polish Zrooti, ​​and Czech Cexian exchange rates have declined. If the European natural gas supply is interrupted this year, these currencies will be the first to face its impact. The investment portfolio manager is selling Fulin and Zerot as a bet on the European potential energy crisis.

Currency devaluation will exacerbate inflation, and the price of countries that have been deeply affected by energy and food prices have risen. This problem is even more serious for emerging market countries that use US dollars to trade foreign commodities. At present, the yen and the won of the Korean Mall have depreciated sharply on the US dollar, which will put tremendous pressure on the Southeast Asian currency that has not been adjusted. For those countries in Southeast Asia, which are "two ends outside", the prices of high energy and raw materials have faced them in crisis.

The debt issue is even more fatal, and Yin Jian is not far in this regard. During the last sharp tightening, Walker controlled out of inflation by increasing interest rates. From mid -1980 to early 1985, the value of the US dollar soared by 77%compared to other currencies. Because developing countries are difficult to issue a long -term and fixed interest rate bonds, they have to borrow US dollar bonds, so when they encounter the US interest rate hikes and the US dollar strengthening, international investors sell emerging market assets. This selling is contagious. : When Mexican's assets are sold, the entire Latin American countries cannot be spared. As the cost of repaying debts became unsustainable, Mexico and other countries became victims of strong dollars at the time.

In the past half a century, when the US dollar stronger, not only the currency of emerging markets has been impacted, but it is also difficult for developed countries to be spared. British pounds and Italy have been destroyed, and even Swiss francs, which have basically maintained the US dollar with the US dollar, have fallen to 1: 0.4.

The Federal Reserve President Powell discussed the international role of the US dollar this summer, "The US dollar is widely used worldwide, which may bring financial stability topics." Essence What Powell dare not say is that it is difficult for the United States to be spared.

The dollar has not defeated all currencies this year. Russia and Ukraine's conflict has accelerated energy and food prices, which is a good news for currencies in countries such as Anshla, the main grain export country Uruguay. Of course, the price of high oil and natural gas has also made the exchange rate of Russian ruble under capital controls surprisingly good.

The strong dollar is strongly inhibiting global trade growth. The US dollar is the main currency to issue invoices and settlement for global trade. Due to the decline in the purchasing power of non -dollar currencies when the US dollar stronger, the US dollar has made the world more poorer, and trade participation has decreased.

At that time, the Tiger Fund, which had a strong US dollar, detonated the Asian financial crisis, trained many small tiger funds. Four months before the death of Old Robson this year, when the signs of the strong US dollar were revealed again, his proud student, the American hedge fund Archegos Capital Management, Bill Huang, was charged with extortion, securities fraud, and telecommunications. Crimson was arrested. In March 2021, he had unable to add a deposit to liquidate all assets, which led to the evaporation of the market value of relevant stocks 33 billion US dollars, becoming "the largest single -day loss in human history." This collapse caused trading opponents, including Credit Suisse, Morgan Stanley and Nomura Holdings to suffer huge losses. Compared with the stagnation of the 1970s, the risk of stagnation of the global economy is still not small. , And Powell, in fact, just keeps a night of overwhelming on a ship that was broken by him. When the strong dollar was staring at the abyss, the abyss was looking back at the Fed coldly.

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