Daily discussion of gold | Gold price strong attack, rebound or reversed?

Guest: Liu Zhongshan, a researcher at Beijing Golden Economic Development Research Center

This week's international gold price opened at $ 1874/ounce, up to a maximum of $ 1879/ounce, and the lowest exploration to $ 1804/ounce.

In terms of news, the Federal Reserve raised the benchmark interest rate of 75 basis points, the largest among 1994, and further increased the tightening of monetary policy. The United States has recently grown strong employment growth, and the unemployment rate has maintained low, which has continued to provide support for the market market. The Fed will continue to reduce the holdings of US Treasury bonds, institutional bonds and institutions mortgage loans to support securities. The US dollar index hit a 20 -year high, but the Federal Reserve raising a sharp interest rate hike has not suppressed the trend of gold prices again. The next strong rebound.

The geopolitical situation has caused global food and coal prices to surge and exacerbate global inflation pressure. At present, the repeated conflict will still support gold prices.

Crude oil prices have a linkage effect on gold, affected by the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike, international oil prices have reached a two -week low, and global crude oil supply is tightly limited to the short -term decline in crude oil prices. However, it is important to be vigilant that the global economic recovery process is still complicated. At present, the rise of commodities lacks the actual demand for the real economy. The slowdown of the global economic recovery and the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate hikes will cause new pressure on crude oil prices. At present, the market crude oil is strong. At present, the price of crude oil is close to the limits of various countries.

Judging from the gold ETF position, ETF has a total position of 1063.94 tons, an additional position of 3.48 tons on June 11, and a position reduction of 4.93 tons on June 15. This week, the cumulative position reduction is 1.45 tons.

Taken together, the strength of the US dollar and the Federal Reserve's expected interest rate hikes make gold prices facing downward pressure, and the geographical situation is currently stuck. Crude oil has recently reduced the probability of short -term rising in the short -term rising crude recovery and uncertain economic recovery, but the main line of the market is still focusing on the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes. The short -term profit rebound and the gold price of the gold price rebounded strongly. But overall, the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate hike continued to put on the price of gold, so even if it rebounded, it was not easy to be too optimistic.

At the perspective of the operation level, fundamental gold is facing the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes. In terms of technological trends, the gold price daily line has a rebound, and it is still in a short trend. ETF continues to reduce positions on gold prices, and the overall pressure is more obvious. Therefore, from the perspective of operating, it is expected that the gold price operating range will be US $ 1,800/ounce next week. Focus on the support level of $ 1800/ounce, and will accelerate downward after effective breakdown. The short -term operation is mainly short -term short -term, strict stop loss. The above suggestions are for reference only.

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