Futures gold ushered in five consecutive declines, and spot gold transactions doubled

21st Century Business Herald reporter Ye Mai Sui Guangzhou report

Due to the Fed's eagle, the price of real gold has plummeted. As of 19:30 Beijing time, the lowest fell to $ 1699.91/ounce. As the spot price fell, the price of gold futures fell five consecutive consecutive times. At the same time, the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR, also had the longest reduction. Since June 17, there are only two trading days. However, with the decline of gold prices, the real gold transaction ushered in a "good day", and the gold spot transactions of many shopping malls doubled year -on -year.

Gold ETF ushered in the longest position reduction period

The Fed of the Eagle was released, and gold was suppressed. The gold futures delivered by the New York Commodity Futures Exchange in December fell $ 10.10, closing at $ 1726.20 per ounce. Dow Jones market data shows that the most active contract price has fallen 3.1%this month and fell for the fifth consecutive month. This is the longest monthly decline since the six months ended in September 2018.

Gold spot has also been adjusted. At present, the minimum gold spot has fallen to nearly $ 1699.91/ounce, and the support of $ 1700/ounce is broken.

"The Fed’ s interest rate hike has a suppression of precious metals. The Federal Reserve ’s interest rate hike increases the cost of holding precious metals, and makes the US dollar strong and crack down on precious metals. At present, the market is expected to continue to raise interest rates in September. It is very large. Today, CME "Fed Observation" shows that the probability of 75 basis points in September is 72%. Moreover, Powell's latest speech at the Jackson Hall conference was interpreted by the market as a full pigeon, some other Federal Reserve Officials' recent remarks are also even more eagle. In this case, precious metals have fallen to decline. "Tang Linmin, a senior researcher at China International Futures Co., Ltd., told reporters of the 21st Century Business Herald.

Regarding the next trend, Tang Linmin believes that it mainly depends on the Fed's conference in September, what changes in the US employment and inflation data, especially inflation data. If the inflation does not have obvious downlink expectations, the Fed may not change the 75 basis points in September, and the precious metals will always be weak to the Fed Conference. If the data such as inflation in the United States have changed drastically, such as the sharp decline in inflation, the Fed may slow down the pace of interest rate hikes, then precious metals may boost. So now it should be mainly waiting for American data and track market expectations. There is also a special impact, such as the situation in Russia and Ukraine, the sharp deterioration of the Russian conflict, etc. At that time, the trend of precious metals may be different.

With the weakening of gold, the holding of the Gold ETF has also opened the longest reduction. Since June 17, the largest gold ETF -SPDR position in the world is in a net outflow. There was a net inflow of 2 trading days, of which 3.18 tons of net inflows on August 19 and a net inflow of 0.58 tons on July 29. At present, SPDR's positioning volume is 973.37 tons, a decrease of 9.5%compared to 1075.54 tons on June 17.

"At this time, watching may be a better strategy. It is in a state of stuck and it may be flipped at any time. At present, the first stage of testing 1700 US dollars/ounce has been broken, and it may continue to visit." Rong said.

Gold sales of physical gold

As the price of gold has fallen, physical gold spot transactions have begun to increase. Dabei, located in Luohu District, Shenzhen, has gathered dozens of jewelry markets. There is a word circulating in the golden jewelry industry, "World Jewelry looks at China, Chinese jewelry looks at Shenzhen, Shenzhen jewelry watches water shell". Public information shows that about 7,000 gold jewelry industry corporations of the golden jewelry industry account for about 50%of the domestic gold jewelry wholesale market share.

As the price of gold fell, water shells sold gold jewelry malls, and the gate of the door. "The market is particularly prosperous in the near future. It may be because the Mid -Autumn Festival, National Day, and the Spring Festival are all the peaks of marriage, so there are many customers who consume in the near future. Now the gold is almost 380 yuan/gram, which is 70 yuan compared to 450 yuan/gram in March. If a 100 grams of jewelry, you can save 7,000 yuan, which is a small number. "Sales staff at a gold shop in Shuibei said.

"2021 China Gold Jewelry Consumption White Paper" shows that the main consumption of gold jewelry has become younger. At present, the age of the main consumer groups of Golden Store is concentrated between 25-50 years old, of which the total consumption of consumption in groups between the ages of 25 and 35 years will be about 75%. Banner.

Zhu Zhigang, vice president and chief analyst of the Guangdong Gold Association, told reporters from the 21st Century Business Herald that the amount of physical transactions has doubled since July. In addition to the decline in gold prices, major banks have paid major banks since this year. Restrictions on gold leverage are also one of the main reasons. "After all, gold is a shelter, and there are a lot of fans in the market. After the bank calls to stop leverage, many investors have turned to physical transactions. Compared with the larger transaction volume, a single transaction amount is also Apricop. "

The person in charge of a department store in Guangzhou also said that July and August were originally consumer off -season, but with the blessing of traditional festivals such as Qixi Festival and Mid -Autumn Festival, the transaction volume of investment gold bars and jewelry gold increased by 190%year -on -year.

- END -