Global high -temperature "baking" asking energy investment

The cover of the 16th issue of 2022 "China Economic Weekly"

"China Economic Weekly" reporter Li Yonghua

In August, the continuous high temperature was baked, and the rain was scarce. The Leshan Great Buddhas at the intersection of the Dadu River, Qingyi River and the Sanjiang River in Leshan City, Sichuan Province exposed all their true bodies. Two years ago, the water volume was abundant and the water level rose, and the Leshan Great Buddha "washing his feet" attracted many tourists to go.

The Management Committee of Leshan Great Buddha Scenic Area stated that at 12:00 on August 18, 2020, the water level of the Leshan Grand Buddha's Foot Platform was 364.73 meters. At 12:00 on August 18, 2022, this number was only 354.20 meters. It is 1.69 meters lower than 10.53 meters lower than the same day two years ago.

At the same time, the local power company, Leshan Electric Power (600644.SH), ushered in four daily limits in 6 trading days, with a range of nearly 50%.

This seems to be a metaphor for energy investment under global high temperature this year. The world needs to respond to energy response to the extreme climate that may be normalized.

Erlangshan Mountain, Luding County, Ganzi Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture, Sichuan Province, and the national power grid transmission high -voltage iron tower line.

The highest extreme temperature, minimum rainfall, maximum power load superimposed

In August, it was originally a flood season in the Yangtze River and the peak of hydropower power generation. However, this year Ledshan had to limit electricity.

On August 15th, GCL Technology (03800.HK) said that the Leshan base encountered electricity restrictions, and the production capacity of the local silicon enterprises in Ruo Leshan was completely discontinued, and it would be expected to affect the output of 9,000 tons of silicon materials in a single month.

On August 17, Shangwei (603333.SH), the main product of wire and cable, publicly stated that Leshan's local power industry department implemented limited charge measures for the company.

On August 20, Tongwei (600438.SH) said that the company cooperated with the requirements of government departments to allow electricity to be in the people and adjust the load in an orderly manner.

Leshan is a photovoltaic town in Sichuan, and Sichuan is the province of my country's photovoltaic industry. GCM Technology, Tongwei, Tianhe Guang Energy (688599.SH), Jingke Energy (688223.SH) and other industry giants have deployed a lot of capacity in Leshan.

Local statistics show that in the first quarter of this year, the output value of Leshan photovoltaic industry achieved an output value of 11.827 billion yuan, an increase of 348.19%; the cumulative output of silicon materials was more than 30,000 tons, an increase of 224.34%, accounting for 16%and 19%of the global and national output, respectively.

Why do photovoltaic companies tie Leshan? Many people in the industry have pointed out that polysilicon production requires a large amount of electricity, and the cost of electricity accounts for about 30%. Sichuan is mainly hydropower and cheap hydropower, which can bring more obvious production cost advantages.

Sichuan indeed lives up to the name of hydropower provinces. At the end of 2021, Sichuan hydropower accounted for 81.6%of the province's power generation, which was higher than 67 percentage points in the country. Hydropower installed capacity and annual power generation ranked first in the country.

However, it was the abundant water and electricity in the past year that this year has led Sichuan to encounter extremely rare power supply tests.

On August 21, the Office of the Energy Supply Guarantee Emergency Command Leading Group of Sichuan Province issued a notice issued a first -level emergency response to the first -level emergency response to the energy supply guarantee in Sichuan Province at 00:00 on the same day. This is the highest level of emergency response.

According to the notice of the Office of the Emergency Command Command Leading Group in Sichuan Province, the first -level emergency response was issued. The main factors were the highest extreme temperature in the same period since July, at least the same period of rainfall in history, and the highest power load overlay in the same period of history. In severe situations, high temperature disasters are parallel with drought, and the contradiction between power supply and demand is extremely prominent.

Global is hot. Xinhua News Agency reported that while high temperature drought leads to a significant increase in power demand, it has a serious impact on power production and exacerbated the dilemma of electricity in Europe.

Hydropower is the second largest source of electricity in France, but data released by French Power Corporation shows that since January of this year, the Rhina Valley, the Alps and the blue coastal areas, which account for more than 70 % of the national hydropower installed capacity, have decreased by hydropower. 60%.

From January to May this year, Italian hydropower volume decreased by 40 % compared with the same period last year.

On August 23, 2022, local time, the Lake-PONCON Lake of Wubaya, the Alps in France, had fallen by 14 meters due to drought, and a tourist walked through the floating bridge of boarding the ship.

On August 11, 2022, local time, Duisburg, Germany, droughts led to a decline in the water level and the Rhine River bed was exposed.

Hydropower, nuclear power, and thermal power are tight, and European electricity prices have soared

Water deficiency not only reduces European hydropower power generation, but also causes chain reactions. Nuclear power and thermal power also ushered in the test.

According to the analysis of the Guiyuan Securities Report, the aggressive heat wave pushing the power consumption demand once again challenged the fragile energy structure of Europe. On the one hand, the decline in water levels affects the supply of hydropower and nuclear power in Europe; on the other hand, the additional summer cooling consumption is pushing the extra summer cooling consumption, causing interference to the rhythm of natural gas replenishment in various countries.

The Rhine and Danube are important shipping rivers in many European countries. However, the current water level of the Rhine has dropped below the minimum water level since 1970, and it continues to decline. Quite a lot of river sections have dried up to key water level lines (40 cm and below).

The depth of water is not enough, and ships with large coal and diesel cargo cannot be navigable, while the Rhine carries one -third of the coal capacity of Germany.

A spokesman for Steag Group, an eight coal -fired power plants in Germany, said that coal inventory is still sufficient, but if the water level continues to decline, "may lead to certain performance restrictions on our system." Nuclear power is the largest source of electricity in France, accounting for about 70%of the country's total power generation. The operation of nuclear power plants seems unswervingly affected by high temperature, but in fact nuclear power plants need a large amount of river water for cooling, so the drought brought by high temperatures also threatened the operation of the French nuclear power plant. According to the latest report of French Power Transporting Network Company, French nuclear power generation in June was 20.1 Taiwa time (1 Tai Watt time was 1 billion kWh), which was far lower than 27.7 Taiwa time in the same period last year.

Data show that in the first seven months of Europe this year, nuclear energy power generation decreased by 12%.

The electricity price soared. Xinhua News Agency reported that on August 16, the electric wholesale price of Germany in the fourth quarter had exceeded 650 euros/Smowa (once the electricity was equivalent to 4.46 yuan). However, the price was less than 100 euros a year ago, only 40 euros two years ago.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its monthly "Petroleum Market Report" that the hot summer temperature and soaring natural gas prices have promoted the rise in oil. The highest level.

High energy prices threatened German manufacturing. The German Federal Bureau of Statistics disclosed that its July producer price index (PPI) increased by 37.2%year -on -year, a record high since the statistics began in 1949, and soaring energy prices was the main reason for PPI to rise.

According to the analysis of the Yangtze River Futures, the energy crisis currently facing Europe has had an impact on industrial manufacturing. A major zinc smelting factory NYSTAR was forced to close due to high energy costs.

The Institute of Economic Research, a well -known think tank in Germany, issued a report saying that due to high energy prices, the business environment of the German chemical industry has deteriorated significantly in the past 12 months. Data show that the business expectations of the German chemical industry are expected to fall to 44.4 points in July 2022, and the value of this value is still 11.8 points in the same period last year.

China resolutely keeps the bottom line of not pulling the gate

According to the analysis of the Guiyuan Securities Report, as a whole, the disturbance of high temperature for inflation and industrial production is short -term and structural. Overseas, especially European energy inflation, is more prominent than domestic contradictions. The influence of production restrictions is highly probable compared to last year.

High temperature challenges, the amount of water and electricity power generation decreases, and the role of coal in the "cockpit stone" of coal in energy and stable supply is even more prominent.

The National Energy Administration stated that recently, due to the continuous high temperature weather, the use of electricity loads has repeatedly reached high high, and the peak summer is at a critical stage. Coal deposit stability is at a high level of history. From August 1st to 17th, the national coal production was 210 million tons, with an average daily output of 12.33 million tons, an increase of 19.4%year -on -year. The average daily supply of power supply plants in the country is 8 million tons of coal, and the coal deposits of power plants are stabilized by more than 170 million tons. It has strongly supported the stable and stable hair of coal electrical units, and provided solid and reliable guarantee for economic development and people's livelihood capacity.

From January to July, the national coal output was 2.56 billion tons, an increase of 11.5%year -on -year, an increase of 260 million tons. Among the 23 provinces and regions, 18 provinces and regions have increased production. Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, and Xinjiang, including four key coal -producing provinces and regions, totaling a total of 240 million tons, accounting for 91%of the country's increase in output, and fully played the main role of the major coal production province (district).

The relevant person in charge of the National Energy Administration said that at present, our nationwide coal inventory is sufficient, and the level of electric coal inventory has reached the best level of history. We will resolutely keep the bottom line of not pulling the gate and resolutely ensure that people's livelihood electricity is used.

Although the energy structure mainly based on coal has not changed, it is worth noting that the proportion of coal consumption in my country has decreased from 65.8%in 2014 to 56%in 2021, with an average annual decrease of 1.4 percentage points. Essence The proportion of clean energy consumption increased from 16.9%to 25.5%, accounting for more than 60%of the increase in energy consumption.

Containment of climate warming, continuously promoting energy green low -carbon transformation

The global extreme high -temperature weather alert human beings.

Wu Lin, a senior engineer of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, believes that the frequent high -temperature weather at the present is essentially the evil results brought by the excessive standard of human emissions.

To curb climate warming, and vigorously develop non -chemical energy such as photovoltaic, wind power, and hydropower has become the consensus of countries around the world.

Zhang Jianhua, director of the National Energy Administration, said that in order to achieve the goals of carbon peaks and carbon neutrality and achieve a long -term energy security and reliable supply, the overall idea of ​​my country's energy development is to continue to promote the low energy green green low under the prerequisite of ensuring energy security. Carbon transformation. The trend of energy development in my country is that the total amount of fossil energy consumption should be gradually decreased. Wind power and photovoltaic are the fastest -growing renewable energy sources, accounting for a large proportion of new energy supply. Wind power and photovoltaic are an important main energy for energy green transformation and low -carbon transformation.

Looking at the world's great powers, China is undoubtedly developing the country with the fastest progress and the most significant results in clean energy. In 2021, renewable energy power generation installed over 1.1 billion kilowatts, accounting for 45.8%of the total installed capacity. In 2021, my country's renewable energy power generation reached 2.49 trillion kWh, accounting for 29.9%of the power consumption of the whole society. Zhang Jianhua said that under the situation of tight energy supply last year and restarted coal power in many European countries, the development of non -chemical energy energy in my country has not decreased, and the proportion of total energy consumption has increased by 0.7 percentage points, from 15.9%to 16.6%. It has maintained an average annual growth rate since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China. From now to 2030, we expect that the proportion of non -stone energy consumption will continue to grow at an average of 1 percentage points per year. Peak's goals.

The United States is ambitious. On August 16, local time, the largest climate bill in the United States, the "Aflation Act of 2022", officially took effect. The legislative appropriation is $ 369 billion for climate change and clean energy, and it clarifies long -term tax credits for wind energy and photovoltaic projects.

It is estimated that by 2030, this legislation will reduce the amount of greenhouse gas emissions in the United States by about 30%to 40%compared with 2005.

Nevertheless, many people in the United States have criticized this bill to truly implement heavy obstacles. For example, import clauses such as tariffs in the bill are pushing the cost of solar panels.

On March 28 this year, the US Department of Commerce announced that it will further investigate the behavior of Chinese photovoltaic component manufacturers in order to avoid anti -dumping and anti -subsidy tariffs, and transfer part of its manufacturing business to Southeast Asia. In August, the US Department of Commerce also claimed to conduct tariffs on tariffs on Southeast Asian solar panel component manufacturers.

The US Solar Industry Trade Organization believes that the survey itself will immediately hinder the development of solar projects and damage the progress of the United States in dealing with climate change.

Even though the $ 369 billion will be implemented in the next 10 years, the unprecedented scale of the United States is still slightly inferior to China and the European Union.

In 2020, the European Union approved the European Green Agreement, which responded to climate change. It is planned to be 30%of the 2 trillion euros budget from 2021 to 2027, which is about 600 billion euros (parallel 610 billion US dollars) for cope. climate change.

According to data compiled by the Energy Research Agency Bloomberg NEF, in 2021, China invested US $ 297.5 billion in energy transformation, the EU invested $ 155.7 billion, and the United States was $ 119.7 billion.

After the autumn, this year's high temperature will end. However, in response to the new balance of the climate, the world urgently needs to pay more practical actions and must accelerate the pace.

Chen Lijuan, chief forecast at the National Climate Center, said: "Global warming is a frequent climate background in the high temperature heat wave event in the northern hemisphere. At present, the international academic community generally believes that the climate will enter a significant change in the future, and it is called a new balance in the world. It means that with the warming of the climate, extreme events that have broken records may become often ever -occurring events. "

In the Paris Agreement signed in 2015, countries agreed that "before the end of this century, the earth must be controlled within 2 ° C and further control the earth's heating up within 1.5 ° C."

However, in the next five years, the average annual growth rate of global clean energy investment was only 2%. The good news was that since 2020, this growth rate has increased to 12%.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that global energy investment will reach $ 2.4 trillion in 2022, of which $ 1.4 trillion in clean energy investment.

Although the incremental increase is significant, the International Energy Agency (IEA) still pointed out that the current investment is still far lower than the amount required by the climate -driven assumptions. Maintain the level within 2 degrees Celsius; to maintain 1.5 degrees Celsius, the investment must be increased by more than 3 times.

(This article published in "China Economic Weekly" 2022, No. 16)

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