Climbing and passing the "new" growth consumer goods manufacturing industry performed well

China Business Daily (Reporter Peng Tingting text/picture) On August 31, the National Bureau of Statistics and China Logistics and Procurement Federation released PMI (China Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index). In August, the manufacturing PMI rose to 49.4%. Among the 21 industries surveyed, 12 industries PMI increased from July, and most of the industries have improved. Among them, the PMI of consumer goods manufacturing in August increased by 0.9 percentage points from July, and has risen for 4 consecutive months.

The analysis believes that benefiting from the stable growth policy and the slowing cost pressure, the manufacturing PMI in August increased by 0.4 percentage points from July. The foundation of restoration development needs to be further consolidated.

Recent market demand has been accelerated. The picture shows consumers buying goods in a shopping center in Daxing District, Beijing.

Consumer product manufacturing maintains growth momentum

With the implementation of various consumer policies and measures, both ends of the supply and demand of consumer goods manufacturing have maintained a stable and rapid growth momentum. Data show that the PMI of consumer goods manufacturing is 52.3%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from July, and has risen for 4 consecutive months. The production index and the new order index were 54.1%and 54.9%, respectively, an increase of 1.9 and 1.5 percentage points from July, and all operated more than 52%for three consecutive months.

"The new order index has risen more obvious, or it reflects the series of stable economic policy effects since August. From the point of view, the new export orders have risen by 0.7 percentage points to 48.1%, and the import recovery is 0.9 percentage points to 47.8%, inside and outside There are signs of synchronization and stability. "Wen Bin, chief economist of China Minsheng Bank, told a reporter from China Business Daily.

According to the analysis of the analyst of the China Logistics Information Center, from the perspective of the operation of the segmented industry, the agricultural and sideline food processing industry, the refined tea manufacturing industry of food, wine, and beverage have accelerated, and the situation of the textile and clothing industry has also improved. Essence Wu Chaoming, deputy dean of the Caixin Research Institute, told the China Business Daily reporter that this is also related to factors such as Mid -Autumn Festival. Recent market demand has accelerated release, and many companies are actively preparing stocks.

The recovery of the service industry has slowed down. In August, affected by factors such as the epidemic and high temperature weather, the business activity index of the service industry fell to 51.9%, which was 0.9 percentage points from July, which was still higher than the critical point. From the perspective of the industry, accommodation, catering, telecommunications, radio and television and satellite transmission services, monetary financial services and other industries such as business activities are all higher than 55%, and the total business of related industries has maintained a rapid increase. At the same time, the business activities index of real estate, leasing and business services, and residential services continue to be located in the contraction range, and the industry's market activity declines.

New kinetic energy accumulation to cultivate new consumption at the time

There are also equipment manufacturing and high -tech manufacturing industries. In August, the PMI of the equipment manufacturing and high -tech manufacturing industry was 50.9%and 50.6%, respectively, below July 0.3 and 0.9 percentage points, which was still higher than the critical point. The industry remained expanded, but the pace slowed down.

Among high -tech enterprises, manufacturing related enterprises play a key role in innovation. Data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology showed that the added value of manufacturing above the designated size in the first half of this year increased by 2.8%year -on -year. The value -added of manufacturing accounted for 28.8%of GDP, an increase of 1.4 percentage points from 2021, and the proportion of manufacturing GDP increased significantly.

In addition, it is worth noting that my country's new economy and new format market entities are also growing rapidly. According to statistics from the General Administration of Market Supervision, as of the end of June this year, there were 23.398 million economic enterprises such as "new technology, new industries, new formats, and new models" registered in the country, accounting for 46.4%of the total enterprise, which was compared to 2021, which was compared to 2021, which was compared to 2021. The end of the year increased by 0.5 percentage points. Digital core industry enterprises set up 604,000 new households in the first half of the year, an increase of 20%year -on -year.

New consumer formats and new models are constantly emerging, and they are also accelerating the release of new consumer demand. Data from JD.com show that during the "6 · 18" period this year, 11.57 million green consumer -related products were bought by consumers. The total turnover increased by 24%year -on -year, and the number of users participating in green consumption increased by 33%year -on -year. Among them, nearly 6 million energy -saving water -saving products include more than 5.19 million household appliances, more than 320,000 home improvement building materials products, and more than 490,000 kitchenware products.

The consumption popularity is continuously increasing, and the cultivation of new consumption hotspots is right. "Promoting consumption policies can better fit with the direction of industrial upgrading, and the deep integration of policy escort overlay new technology and the real economy will create new opportunities for high -quality industrial development, consumer upgrades, and inject new momentum. Green home appliances, sports and health, etc. Consumption needs still need to be further stimulated and released. "Feng Mohan, a macroeconomic researcher in Beijing Fushengde Consultation, told China Business Daily.

Stable economic policy is expected to consolidate the foundation of market recovery

Since mid -August, a series of stable growth policies have been introduced. In terms of monetary policy, the central bank lowered the midterm loan convenience (MLF) and open market operating interest rate (OMO) interest rates each on August 15, exceeding market expectations. Later, LPR was guided by LPR. Among them, one -year downgrade 5 basis points, 5 -year -old more than 15 basis points, and the support for medium- and long -term loans such as real estate mortgage increased.

In terms of fiscal policy, the executive meeting of the State Council held on August 24 announced that: First, the 300 billion yuan policy development financial instruments have fallen to the project, and then increased by more than 300 billion yuan; the second is to use more than 5,000 according to law. The deposit limit of the special debt of 100 million yuan is issued by the end of October. "It can increase effective investment and consumption, but also helps to respond to insufficient loan demand." Wen Bin believes that "Generally speaking, these policies are expected to form joint efforts, and then promote credit expansion and ironing economic fluctuations. , Keep your economy in a reasonable range. "

In addition, from the market expectations, in August, the business activity expectation index was 57.6%, which was lower than July 1.2 percentage points. It was still in a high boom range. Among them, retail, railway transportation, postal, Internet software and information technology services The expected index is more than 60%of the high -level boom range, and the company's expectations are more optimistic.

"It is expected that the manufacturing PMI is expected to rise to around 50%in the next few months." Wu Chaoming analyzed that the first is that the impact of the tension on the industrial production chain on industrial production will weaken as the epidemic prevention and control situation is good, but supply and demand will be supplying, but supply and demand The recovery of both ends will inevitably be repeatedly disturbed by the epidemic. The third is that the energy insurance supply policy is expected to stabilize the production of manufacturing and alleviate the pressure of midstream and downstream; fourth, the policy of stabilizing the property market is strong, and the real estate market expects and downward trends are expected to improve margin.

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