The central bank meeting overnight, and a new round of big moves have been on the road!

Zhigu Trends (ID: ZGTRed) | Shi Yanfeng

There is no doubt that "steady economy" has reached a critical moment. At this moment, the "stable property market" also seemed to be deep.

Since August, the policy of stabilizing the property market has become more dense. On the 22nd, the LPR was not symmetrical, and the benchmark interest rate of the property market was reduced by 10 basis points. On the night of the 22nd, the central bank held a meeting overnight to deploy the next stage of monetary credit. "One city and one strategy" allows local policies to stimulate housing demand more independently.

According to statistics, since 2022, there have been more than 100 cities across the country to relax and control policies, and the policy frequency is about 400 times, all for the "stable property market."

At present, the real estate industry is developing in a good direction. The proportion of residents 'down payment and mortgage interest rate has declined, and most areas have also relaxed purchase restrictions. The demand side of residents' purchase of houses has been opened; in the context of "guarantee delivery", developers have also relaxed, and financing scale has increased significantly. Developer confidence is also slowly recovering ...

However, due to the previous influence, the transcript of the real estate industry in the first half of the year is generally not good -looking.

According to data from the central finger, the average sales value of the top 100 housing companies in the first half of the year was 35.64 billion yuan, a year -on -year decrease of 48.6%. According to the statistics of the Kerry Real Estate Research Center, the sales of the top 100 housing companies in the first half of the year fell 51%year -on -year. There are only 9 housing companies with sales of 100 billion yuan. Compared with 19 in the first half of 2021, the number of 100 billion housing companies has decreased by 10.

Under the overall pressure of the industry, Country Garden's transcripts can still be attributed to the "stable" category in this big test.

On August 30, Country Garden released data from the 2022 mid -term performance report showed that the company's sales amount of equity contracts was about 185.1 billion yuan, and the sales area of ​​equity contracts was about 23.48 million square meters.

The importance of real estate to the national economy is beyond words. This importance will not change in the short term. In the future, regardless of the central government, local, regardless of supply, or demand, it will continue to introduce the policy of stabilizing the property market, which is also the chassis of the economy.

Mo Bin, President of Country Garden, revealed that although the length of market confidence recovery is still uncertain, but has confidence in the future market, Country Garden has made the budget from June of this year to June next year. stage.

New type of urbanization construction starts

Chinese real estate enters a new stage

The market is warming up, and the pressure of developers will continue to be alleviated. These are foreseeable things in the short term.

It's just that real estate is not a short and fast industry, but an industry that is heavy assets and needs to cross the cycle. Therefore, housing companies need to have vision and wisdom in order to see the day and cross the cycle.

In the long run, China is entering the new type of urbanization, and the logic of the real estate industry has changed. Corresponding developers will also face new challenges and opportunities.

Compared with developed countries, the process of urbanization in China has started late, develops rapidly, and has an unusually obvious scope. China is entering the new type of urbanization, which is the urbanization version 2.0, showing several distinctive characteristics.

First of all, the starting point of new urbanization is high, but there is still room for further improvement.

At present, the level of urbanization in China has reached 64.7%, which is significantly higher than 56%. But compared with developed countries such as Europe, America, Japan, and South Korea, we still have about 20%of the room for improvement.

This means that although we enter the tail stage of urbanization and bid farewell to the period of high -speed growth, the future growth space is still considerable.

To put it more straightforward, there are still 200 million people in the future. This is the incremental space in the real estate market.

Secondly, after the early urbanization development, China has initially formed several urban agglomeration and urban circle. At the stage of new urbanization, these urban agglomerations and urban areas will continue to expand.

In recent decades, the rapid economic development, China has developed from an agricultural country to a powerful industrial country. In the process, the population continued to move from rural to cities, from the central and western regions to the eastern industrial city, laying the prototype of urban agglomeration and urban circle.

The development of industrial development needs to gather effects, and the development of the service industry needs to gather more. In the middle and late stages of the urbanization process, the demand for scale effects is stronger, and the population will gather more to large cities, urban areas, and urban agglomerations.

At present, the economic scale of Beishang, Guangzhou and Shenzhen accounts for 2.5-4%of the overall economy. Compared with other cities in China, this level is quite high. But this proportion is too small compared to international metropolises such as London and Tokyo.

The scale of London and Tokyo accounted for 20%of the country, and New York's economic scale accounted for 10%. Therefore, China's urban agglomeration and urban circle will continue to expand. This is the law of development and international experience.

Finally, it should be noted that, unlike other countries, there are obvious scope of urbanization in China. At the stage of new urbanization, the traces of planning will be more obvious.

One obvious feature is the balanced development of large and small cities.

Looking at a data, the urbanization rate of resident population in 2021 has reached 64.72%, but the urbanization rate of the household registration population is only 46.7%, and the difference between the two is as high as 18%.

According to the seventh census data, the total flow of rural population in the country in 2020 was 286 million, accounting for 76.3%of all the flowing population in my country. Remove a small part of the migrant population in the township, and the total population scale of the countryside from the countryside in 2020 was 272 million. What's the meaning? The household registration system has seriously hindered the further improvement of my country's urbanization level.

In order to solve this problem, since 2019, documents have been promoted every year to comprehensively cancel the restrictions on settlement of small and medium -sized cities, and comprehensively relax the restrictions on the settlement of large cities. Except for a few cities such as Beijing, other cities have basically liberalized restrictions.

In the "Fourteenth Five -Year Plan" New Urbanization Implementation Plan issued by the National Development and Reform Commission in 2022, there is one of the urbanization construction with county seats as an important carrier. This is an important signal.

In the early days of urbanization, the county economy had performed well. But later the development of large cities was extremely rapid, and the county economy was forgotten. Today, when urbanization is 1.0, it is about to start 2.0, and the county economy is an intriguing signal.

The real estate industry needs to think about this trend. Do not ignore the development of small and medium -sized cities. Those third- and fourth -tier cities with rapid economic growth, large population inflows, and prospects still have room for development in the real estate market.

Therefore, there is no need to be pessimistic about the future of Chinese urbanization; there is no need to sigh for the future of China's real estate, and the incremental space and the stock space are quite large.

There are opportunities for each era in each era.

How to cross the cycle of developers and win the future

China's urbanization has entered the 2.0 stage, and the corresponding Chinese real estate also needs to face a new situation. Although the growth rate will decrease compared to the past, the growth space is still huge.

Yang Guoqiang, the founder of Country Garden and the chairman of the board of directors of the group, has repeatedly said that China's new urbanization still has a long way to go, and people who pursue a better life will always be on the road.

Mo Bin, President of Country Garden, also stated at the 2021 performance conference that "China's urbanization level still has a lot of room for improvement. During the" 14th Five -Year Plan ', the process of urbanization will be advanced at high speed, which contains countless new markets that contain countless new markets And the new model. "

For developers, how can we cross the cycle and win the future?

Only in the cold winter can we get a big harvest next fall. At present, the real estate industry is still under pressure, and the financial management capabilities in the transformation are still related to survival.

Looking back at the mines, it may not be lost to the times or policies, but that the walls of the small walls have been missed, and the financial management of the company has problems.

After the issuance of the "three red lines" policy of financing, the biggest problem facing housing companies is fund management.

In contrast, Country Garden's financial management ability has always been remarkable. It can not only achieve positive returns, but also recover funds, further optimize the leveraged structure, and ensure the abundant cash flow.

According to the data of Country Garden's financial report, the shareholders of Country Garden should account for about 4.91 billion yuan in net profit in the first half of the year, and the net operating cash flow was about 5.3 billion yuan. As of the end of June, Country Garden's total loan balance further dropped to 293.68 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.6 percentage points from the end of last year. The requirements of 100%"continue to maintain a lower area in the industry. In addition, Country Garden can use a cash balance of 147.98 billion yuan, with abundant funds on the account.

Country Garden Group Management in the 2022 mid -term performance conference

The Country Garden Interim Report shows that the company's sales cash rebate of equity property in the first half of the year was about 170.29 billion yuan, and the rate of repayment of equity was 92%. It has maintained more than 90%for 7 consecutive years.

It has maintained a very high repayment rate for many years, which is enough to prove that Country Garden's "hematopoietic ability", which also means that the company has a solid and plenty of cash flow.

In addition to strong internal hematopoietic capabilities, Country Garden also has good external blood transfusion channels -has good credit rating, and unblocked diversified financing channels.

Since September 2021, it has successfully issued a variety of direct financing instruments at home and abroad, including corporate bonds of 2.935 billion yuan, 1.526 billion yuan ABS and HK $ 3.9 billion. In May of this year, Country Garden became the first batch of domestic private housing enterprises issued with credit protection tool corporate bonds, and successfully issued 500 million yuan in corporate bonds.

Of course, another manifestation of Country Garden's funding management capabilities is to reasonably arrange the debt period.

Country Garden has included all risk points that may be encountered in the future into the cash streaming considerations, and do the ultimate version of the pressure test. The medium and long -term rolling updates in a quarterly and short -term period to ensure the realization of the "peak peak and Pinggu", so as to smooth the possible phased fluctuations, and leave sufficient safety pads to cope with external uncertainty.

As of now, the company has no overseas US dollar priority notes to expire this year, and only Tengyue can return a total of 4 billion yuan in corporate bonds. Country Garden said that the company has done the repayment plan and arrangement, and will consider re -financing and other arrangements according to market conditions to further adjust the debt structure.

It is only the first step to survive, and it is the second step to become stronger.

"Big" and "Strong" have never been a concept, "big" refers to scale, and "strong" refers to management.

In the past, real estate focused on the financial industry, and financial management capabilities determined everything. In the future, real estate is more like manufacturing, products and management determine success or failure.

The leading enterprises in any industry have a common feature, and the company's ability to govern is strong. In the real estate industry, Country Garden has good full -cycle management strength, including product standardization capabilities, project operation management capabilities, and property service capabilities. After more than 30 years of accumulation, Country Garden has developed a variety of residential products in terms of products, and has established a wealth of product libraries and case libraries to meet the needs of different markets. At the operation level, Country Garden attaches great importance to safety and quality management. Through the establishment of mechanisms , Improve systemic measures such as standards, and strengthen the pre -management and process control of hidden safety production hazards.

Since 2022, Country Garden has entered the 2.0 stage of a strong base operation to further strengthen the engineering management system and improve the technical standard system. These are important guarantees for Country Garden to win the future.

Of course, for developers, there is another important measurement factor in future development -soil storage.

The urbanization stage of China is different, and developers have different logic logic. In the past, developers were limited to the core area of ​​core cities, and the kings continued to appear.

In recent years, the situation has changed, and many king projects have lost money, and many regional developers have went bankrupt. The reason is that policies and situations have changed too quickly, and resources are too concentrated.

One of the important features of new urbanization just mentioned is the balanced development, which is consistent with the logic of Country Garden land.

Country Garden's soil storage resources are abundant, and the layout is balanced and balanced nationwide. To a certain extent, it can effectively hear regional risks. At the same time Standard demand, seize the future opportunity.

Summarize

Short -term market sentiment is not an excuse for excessive pessimism; short -term policy stimulus is not a reason to be blind and optimistic.

Since China has recognized that China has entered the stage of new urbanization, the size of the core large city circle will continue to expand, and small cities with prospects will also be balanced. These are the imagination of the future real estate industry.

It's just that in this slightly long winter, first rely on stable finance, strong management capabilities, and forward -looking layouts, survive, during the dormant, take the opportunity to store the momentum for the future.

This is not the story of Country Garden, or the unique secret of a housing company, but a compulsory course for the entire industry to actively evolve. In this era full of waves and winds, both individuals and enterprises need sufficient hardness and strongness, and at the same time, they also need sufficient toughness and patience.

No winter is overwhelming, and no spring will not come. When the spring flowers bloom, all the preparations and brewes of the previous preparations will be broken out, greeted the sun and rain dew, and the evolutionary re -growing growth.

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