The shadow of economic recession is shrouded in the United States

Steve Hank, a well -known economist in the United States and a professor of applied economics at John Hopkins University, said in an interview this week that the US economy will fall into a serious decline in 2023. In fact, this judgment is already a "chorus" in the United States.

Decline "chorus"

According to US Consumer News and Business Channel (CNBC) recently reported that Hank believes that the major economic recession in the United States is inevitable. "We will definitely fall into a economic recession, because we have a five -month M2 growth to zero, and the Federal Reserve has not even noticed this problem." M2 refers to the supply of cash, check deposits, savings deposits, and deposits, and deposits Rights and interests of currency market funds. M2 is widely used as indicators to measure the number of currencies. Hank also predicts that inflation in the United States will last until 2023 or even 2024. Hanks predicted accurately last year that the U.S. inflation rate will be between 6%and 9%in 2022.

The Federal Reserve President Powell held in the "Jackson Hall Economic Policy Seminar" held this week that the US high inflation is "strong demand and limited supply products, and the Fed's tools mainly work for overall demand." Powell said that the Fed plans to continue to raise interest rates to reduce the inflation rate to 2%, but at the same time warned that it might bring "some pain" to American families and companies. In this regard, Hank said, "Powell has not understood what the cause of inflation is now, and he is still talking about small issues in supply."

Many economists and market observer are similar to Hank. The results of the questionnaires released by the National Commercial Economic Association of the United States showed that more than 70 % of economists interviewed believed that the US economist would fall into a recession in the middle of next year. Nearly 1/5 of the economists believe that the US economy has fallen into a decline. A survey by the US financial company Stifel Financial shows that 79%of the company's interviewed company executives, business owners, and private equity investors believe that the US economy will fall into recession in the next 18 months, and 18%of interviewees believe that the US economy has fallen into a decline.

"The worst situation has not yet arrived"

The famous American economist Stephen Roki warned in an interview with CNBC that the worst situation has not yet arrived, unless a miracle occurs, the US economic recession is inevitable. At present, the U.S. unemployment rate is maintained at about 3.5%, but Rock predicts that the U.S. unemployment rate will rise, which may reach 6%. Maczandi, chief economist of Moodle Analysis Company, said that when the general economic recession occurred, the United States would lose 3 million to 4 million jobs, and the unemployment rate may increase to 6%.

From the current point of view, layoffs have begun to sweep the major US companies, and many well -known companies have announced layoffs in 2022. American social media giant Snap layoffs 20%, US e -commerce platform Shopify layoffs 10%. Even the rare layoffs of the US streaming video giant Net Fei also announced several rounds of layoff plans. Considering the severe inflation situation and the Federal Reserve may implement a more tightened monetary policy in the short term, many economists are worried that the next situation will be worse.

People vomit

Since the Federal Reserve raised interest rates in a row, the American people have indeed endured "pain" as Powell said. According to a special reporter in the Global Times in the United States, the United States is increasing the valuation of real estate to increase the real estate tax, which shows that the local government is preparing for the possible financial crisis. At the same time, rents are also rising. Due to the failure of restricting rising rents during the epidemic, many landlords have increased the pressure of inflation in the past two years to the rent at one time. Some tenants have to move to more remote areas to save expenses.

The continuous high inflation rate has led the American people to spit on social media. "You can't afford food and you can't afford oil, but it doesn't matter. The Democratic Party will improve the climate." "I just cheered me 72.3 US dollars, which is more than my a day's salary." Although the US oil price has been in the past two months, there is some money in US oil prices. The decline, but the rise in the price of daily consumer goods has increased the burden of people's life. Taking the American warehousing supermarket opened as an example, the price of toilet paper rose by nearly 30%year-on-year, and food prices such as meat, eggs, milk, etc. also rose by 10%-20%. The increase in life pressure forced the public to divide the salary into several copies to plan, and try to avoid unnecessary expenses to ensure the balance of revenue and expenditure. ▲

Zheng Ke, a special reporter in the United States, special reporter Chen Yahan, a special reporter in the United States

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