The change rate changes make the price of RMB prices easily rise and fall

The high -frequency violent fluctuations of the exchange rate often cause the direction of gold prices at home and abroad in a short period of time. The gap between domestic and foreign gold price fluctuations.

Since April, due to the influence of the Federal Reserve's sharp interest rate hike expectations, the US dollar exchange rate has shown a strong upward trend, and the international gold price of US dollar prices has fallen significantly. The price of gold fell from nearly 2,000 US dollars/ounces from mid -April to below 1790 US dollars per ounce in mid -May, roughly calculated, and the decline was about 10 %.

However, domestic gold market participants and investors who always pay attention to the changes in the price of RMB prices have clearly felt the relatively strong RMB gold prices during the same period. The spot price of the Shanghai Gold Exchange AU99.99 was maintained around 407 yuan/gram in mid -April, and in mid -May, it fell to around 390 yuan/gram. The rough calculation of the decline was only about 4 %.

Participants in most RMB gold markets intuitively felt that the obvious volatility gap between the gold price of RMB pricing and the US dollar pricing in recent periods.

The price fluctuations of commodities in the international and domestic markets also naturally contain the factors of exchange rate fluctuations. However, the influence of the exchange rate in the volatility of gold prices at home and abroad is particularly obvious compared to other commodity prices. The prominent effect of this exchange rate does not originate from the currency attributes of gold, but is caused by the price of low gold prices compared to most other industrial commodities.

The influence of the exchange rate on the poor price fluctuations of goods at home and abroad, in addition to the cost of income of international trade and cross -market arbitrage, it rarely appears in the market vision. This is mainly due to the two major exchange rates and commodities. The asymmetry of asset volatility, that is, the volatility of the exchange rate is lower than the low commodity price.

The exchange rate, as a comparison of the currency of a country and the currency of other countries, almost does not show a state of violent fluctuations. The highly questioned foreign exchange derivative tools are because the high leverage has enlarged the exchange rate fluctuations, not the amazing fluctuation of the exchange rate itself; On the contrary, the fluctuations of most industrial commodities and high software prices are the norm of market operation. Even for investors who are not familiar with the commodity market, you only need to review the plunge of crude oil prices in 2020 and this year's nickel prices.

However, the relatively low volatility of gold prices greatly weakened the asymmetry between the volatility between the exchange rate and the goods. Originally, the exchange rate fluctuations were small and the price of commodity prices was large. This asymmetric caused the exchange rate to have a small impact on the fluctuation of goods; however, the fluctuation of gold prices itself was relatively small, so the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on gold prices will cause people's attention from time to time. This has caused the exchange rate fluctuations to cause the gap between domestic and foreign gold price fluctuations, which are expressed in the near futureIn the context of the decline in international gold prices, the fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate has triggered the resistance of the RMB price.

The exchange rate does not change the basic pattern of domestic and foreign gold price linkages.

Recently, due to the fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate fluctuations, the price of RMB gold is prone to the price of dollars in the US dollar. The landscape of domestic and foreign gold price linkage is broken, that is, the price of RMB gold will go out of the market trend that has nothing to do with the US dollar gold price because of the fluctuation of exchange rate fluctuations.

Although the possibility of overwhelming gold price fluctuations in theoretically, from historical perspective, although the exchange rate has risen and fall, the basic pattern of domestic and foreign gold -priced linkage has never changed.

The micro foundation for maintaining this pattern is still the asymmetry of the volatility between the two major assets of the exchange rate and the commodity: although gold is a variety with relatively small volatility in the product, the exchange rate is more more more than the exchange rate. Low volatility determines that exchange rate fluctuations can only make the fluctuations in the price of gold at home and abroad obvious, but not enough to make the RMB gold price and the US dollar gold price separate in the trend.

The high -frequency violent fluctuations of the exchange rate often cause the direction of gold prices at home and abroad in a short period of time, but the exchange rate has less durable drastic fluctuations. The gap between the fluctuation of gold price at home and abroad that has been gradually accumulated for a long time.

Therefore, exchange rate fluctuation is not an important factor affecting the trend of gold price.

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