Zhang Aoping: In August, PMI continued to be in the contraction range, and the policy still needed to protect the market subject

Zhongxin Jingwei August 31st: August PMI continues to be in the contraction range, and the policy still needs to protect the market subject of the market

Author Zhang Aoping Institute of Extraction Research Institute

On August 31, the National Bureau of Statistics released the manufacturing procurement manager index (PMI), non -manufacturing business activity index, and comprehensive PMI output index in August 2022. Among them, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from July, and continued to be below the critical point; A percentage point, continuing to be located in the expansion range.

As an advanced indicator of economic operation, PMI's recorded data in August has recovered from July, but it continues to be in the contraction range. The author believes that the current economy is in a critical point of stabilizing and recovering. Insufficient confidence in the development of market entities, especially small and medium -sized enterprises, is the long -term "pain point" problem of endogenous recovery of endogenous recovery. Policy implementation needs to seize the current key window, so that the private sector gradually relay the government department to achieve efforts, that is, to realize private enterprise loan investment and residents Loan consumption, the economy realizes endogenous recovery.

First of all, from the five classification index that constitutes the manufacturing PMI, although some indexes have rebounded, they are still lower than the critical point. Specifically, the production index is 49.8%, which is the same as July; the new order index is 49.2%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points from July; the raw material inventory index is 48.0%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from July; %, An increase of 0.3 percentage points from July; the supplier delivery time index is 49.5%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from July. Among them, the production demand index is flat and one liter, which is lower than the critical point, indicating that the overall manufacturing industry needs to be restored insufficient, and it still needs to be strengthened.

Secondly, from the perspective of large, medium and small enterprises PMI, large enterprises are promoted to expansion range, and small and small enterprises are still in the contraction range. Large -scale enterprise PMI is 50.5%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points from July, and rises to the expansion range; the PMI of the medium -sized enterprise is 48.9%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from July, and the level of prosperity has improved. The PMI of small enterprises is 47.6%, which is 7 than 7 than 7 The monthly decreased by 0.3 percentage points, and the level of prosperity continued to decline. Among them, compared with the production and operation of large enterprises, small and small enterprises have greater pressure on the production and operation of large enterprises, and the development expectations have continued to be weaker. It is the "sequelae" caused by more than two years of epidemic and multi -round impact, and the "pain point" problem of endogenous recovery in the economy.

The author believes that subsequent macro fiscal and monetary policy will also be more active in expanding effective demand. Under the premise of taking into account short -term and long -term, long -term, economic growth and stable prices, internal equilibrium and external equilibrium, it will maintain strategic determination, firmly focus on me, help private sector "broad confidence", and avoid insufficient confidence in small and medium -sized enterprises to become confidence. "Permanent trauma".

If the main market entities, the expectations and confidence of the development of SMEs are still weak, the economy is difficult to achieve endogenous recovery, or the black swan and gray rhino incident that occurred in the economic development, making new downward pressure on the economy. Total and total tools are still in the policy toolbox, and structural policies will continue to make efforts.

In the future, under the demands of a strong stable growth of the policy, the economy has stood at the starting point of a new round of recovery. Market entities and investors also need to understand that the economic recovery is not going all the way overnight, but gradually fluctuating. At present, we need to pick up the confidence of development, and catch the future of the future before we walk in the economic cycle curve. (Zhongxin Jingwei APP)

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Editor in charge: Song Yafen intern Peng Qiyun

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