In August, PMI continued to be in the contraction range, and the policy still needed to protect the market subject.

Zhang Aoping/Wen on August 31, the National Bureau of Statistics released the manufacturing procurement manager index, non -manufacturing business activity index, and comprehensive PMI output index in August 2022. Among them, the manufacturing procurement manager index (PMI) was 49.4%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the last month, and continued to be below the critical point. The monthly decrease of 1.2 and 0.8 percentage points, and continues to be located in the expansion range.

As an advanced indicator of economic operation, PMI's recorded data in August has recovered from July, but it continues to be in the contraction range (April 47.4%, May 49.6%, June 50.2%, July 49.0%, August 49.4 %), It reflects that my country's economic boom level has fluctuated since the month -on -month restoration, and the recovery foundation is still not firm. The author believes that the current economy is in a critical point of stabilizing and recovering. The 160 million market entities, especially the lack of confidence in the development confidence of more than 40 million SMEs, are the long -term "pain points" of endogenous recovery. , Make the private sector gradually relay the government departments to achieve their efforts, that is, to achieve private enterprise loan investment and residential loan consumption, and the economy realizes endogenous recovery.

First of all, from the five classification index that constitutes the manufacturing PMI, although some indexes have rebounded, they are still lower than the critical point. Specifically, the production index was 49.8%, which was the same as last month; the new order index was 49.2%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points from the previous month; the raw material inventory index was 48.0%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month; %, An increase of 0.3 percentage points from last month; the supplier delivery time index was 49.5%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, the production demand index is flat and one liter, which is lower than the critical point, indicating that the overall manufacturing industry needs to be restored insufficient, and it still needs to be strengthened.

Secondly, from the perspective of large, medium and small enterprises PMI, large enterprises are promoted to expansion range, and small and small enterprises are still in the contraction range. Large -scale enterprise PMI was 50.5%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points from last month, and rose to the expansion range. The PMI of the medium -sized enterprise was 48.9%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, and the level of prosperity was improved. The PMI of small enterprises was 47.6%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from last month, and the level of prosperity continued to decline. Among them, compared with the production and operation of large enterprises, small and small enterprises have greater pressure on the production and operation of large enterprises, and the development expectations have continued to be weaker. It is the "sequelae" caused by more than two years of epidemic and multi -round impact, and the "pain point" problem of endogenous recovery in the economy.

In addition, compared to other economic goals throughout the year, the most important goal is to be less than 5.5%. In the face of the complex and severe international environment and arduous and heavy domestic reform and development and stability tasks, if the target of the unemployment rate can be kept, economic activities can operate normally, which is very successful. And small and medium -sized enterprises contribute 80%of the employment in the market, and employment must first maintain small and medium -sized enterprises. As long as small and medium -sized enterprises have sufficient development confidence, employment positions will realize endogenous benign expansion.

On July 28, the Politburo meeting requested that "to give full play to the initiative of enterprises and entrepreneurs, to create a good policy and institutional environment, so that state -owned enterprises dare to work, private enterprises, and foreign companies dare to invest." It shows that the positive attitude of policies is not or not. Allows SMEs to continue to weaken.

On August 24, the State Council Executive Meeting pointed out that "while implementing a policy of stabilizing the economy, we will implement 19 continuation policies to form a combined effect, promote the stability of economic stability, maintain operation in a reasonable range, and strive to strive for the best results." In the 19 continuous policies, "continuously release the reform of the loan market quotation interest rate reform and conduction effect, reduce corporate financing and personal consumer credit costs", "introduced measures to support the development and investment of private enterprises, and promote the healthy and sustainable development of the platform" A quarter -to -quarter of the business charges encourage localities such as small and medium -sized enterprises and individual industrial and commercial household loan risk compensation funds "and other policy measures for market entities and small and medium -sized enterprises to achieve confidence in development.

The author believes that subsequent macro fiscal and monetary policy will also be more active in expanding effective demand. Under the premise of taking into account short -term and long -term, long -term, economic growth and stable price, internal equilibrium and external equilibrium, it will maintain strategic determination, firmly focus on me, help private sector "broad confidence", avoid insufficient confidence in small and medium -sized enterprises. This The "sequelae" of the epidemic became "permanent trauma".

And if, the future market subject, the expectations and confidence of the development of SMEs are still weak, the economy is difficult to achieve endogenous recovery, or the black swan and gray rhino incident that exceeds expectations in economic development, making new downward pressure on the economy, monetary policy There is still space, the total tools are still in the policy toolbox, and structural policies will continue to make efforts.

In the future, under the demands of a strong stable growth of the policy, the economy has stood at the starting point of a new round of recovery. Market entities and investors also need to understand that the economic recovery has never been going on overnight, but gradually fluctuating. In addition, the 20th National Congress of the second half of the year will also actively deploy the future. At present, we need to pick up the confidence of development, and catch the future of the future before we walk in the economic cycle curve.

(The author of the author Zhang Aopi Department of Extraction in this article)

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