Is the Indian wheat output decreased sharply by the "feeding world"? Does it affect the global wheat supply pattern?

Huaxia Times (chinatimes.net.cn) reporter Wang Yue Xu Yunqian Beijing report

Affected by the conflict of Russia and Ukraine in February this year, the two major wheat exporters were difficult to export wheat exports in Russia and Ukraine. At this time, Indian Prime Minister Modi shouted the slogan "Feed The World".

Although under the influence of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, India's wheat exports have increased significantly. However, in May, India announced the prohibition of wheat exports on the grounds of ensuring domestic food security.

In fact, under the global high -temperature heat waves, India's wheat output has decreased sharply this year. According to the Indian Food Company, Indian National Wheat Reserve has fallen to the lowest level in the past 14 years in August. This means that not only can India "feed the world", but even the people are almost feeding.

"Judging from the latest wheat market conditions, the Russian -Ukraine conflict is relieved, the Western European food crisis eases, and the price of international wheat prices will be greatly adjusted in the early stage. It is expected that the fluctuation amplitude is not large in the short term. The northern wheat has been listed in large quantities, and the wheat has obtained a big harvest this year. In the year, wheat production needs to be balanced. I believe that in the short stage, the price of domestic wheat is basically stable, and the possibility of rising is not too great. "The China Cultural Management Association Yuan Shuai, deputy secretary -general of the Rural Revitalization and Construction Committee, Yuan Shuai, executive director of the Digital Rural Revitalization Institute of Zhongguancun Village IoT, said in an interview with the "Huaxia Times" reporter.

Wheat exit under Russia and Ukraine conflict

Statistics show that the global wheat harvest area of ​​2021/22 reached 220 million hectares, with a total output of 776 million tons. Among them, EU wheat output accounts for 18%, Chinese wheat output accounts for 18%, Indian wheat output accounts for 14.11%, and Russian wheat output is 75.5 million tons, accounting for 9.7%of global wheat output; It accounts for 4.3%.

Russia and Ukraine, as the main exporter of two wheat, have a significant impact on global wheat supply. Since the outbreak of Russia and Ukraine in February this year, the global wheat supply chain is damaged, and the prices of agricultural products such as wheat have risen sharply.

Although the export of Ukraine's sea transportation is interrupted, Russian wheat exports can fill a certain supply gap, Russia's grain exports are not easy, and it has always been trapped in a series of sanctions that have been implemented.

In terms of Ukraine, although it has reached a grain transportation agreement with Russia in July and restarted the Celestial Channel of the Black Sea, due to the damage to a large number of farmland and the weak local wheat prices, experts predict that Ukraine ’s harvest prospects are not optimistic next year.

"Since the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, international wheat prices have continued to rise sharply. With the continuous upgrading of the war between the two countries, Ukraine's grain exports have stalled, grain production and harvesting are blocked, Russian export variables have increased, and global grain prices have soared. In the market, influenced by Russia and Ukraine conflicts, the global food chain is tight. "Yuan Shuai said.

It is worth noting that when the wheat market is becoming increasingly tense, Indian Prime Minister Modi once shouted that India will do his best to export wheat and bear the responsibility of feeding the world.

However, in Yuan Shuai's view, the total amount of wheat exports in Russia and Ukraine account for nearly 30 % of the total global wheat exports. India, the European Union, Australia and other countries such as wheat exports cannot make up for the reduction of Russia and Ukraine in a short period of time. Essence

From the past, India, as the second largest wheat producer in the world, is not a major exporter of wheat, and its wheat produced mainly supplies the domestic market.

India's wheat output this year has been sharply affected by high temperatures. According to data from Indian food companies, Indian National Wheat Reserve has fallen to the lowest level in the past 14 years in August.

In fact, under the influence of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, India's wheat exports once increased significantly, but in May, India announced the ban on wheat exports on the grounds of ensuring domestic food security.

According to Bloomberg, since April, Indian wheat consumption inflation has remained above 9%year -on -year and has soared to 11.7%in July.

my country's rations are absolutely safe

Faced with the increasingly tense wheat supply situation in the world, will my country be implicated?

"The global unsafe problem has become a global governance problem at present and future periods. But when the perspective returns to China, the current situation of my country's food supply is relatively sufficient. There are very few wheat imported by the country, and the self -sufficiency rate of my country's wheat is more than 90%. This is due to my country's emphasis on the three peasants, and the strengthening and strong guarantee of self -sufficient policies. The continuous breakthrough in the technology field has prompted our production output to continue to increase. "Yuan Shuai told this reporter.

And Liu Han, the head of the Department of Market and Information Technology of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Ministry, also stated at the press conference of agricultural and rural economic operation in the first half of the year that from the perspective of inventory, the inventory of rice and wheat society is at a historic level The above ration consumption demand has increased corn inventory.

Yuan Shuai believes that wheat is an important food crop in my country. my country is the largest wheat producer and consumer country in the world. Due to the improvement of economic strength and the improvement of scientific research capabilities, my country's wheat output has maintained a slow growth trend.

In fact, my country's grain production capacity has been improved steadily this year, and the output has stabilized more than 1.3 trillion kg of consecutive years. Among them, the grain output in 2021 reached a record high, reaching 1365.7 billion kg, and the per capita grain share reached 483 kg, which is higher than internationally recognized The 400 kg of grain safety line has achieved basic self -sufficiency and absolutely safe grain.In this regard, Yuan Shuai said that grain is not only an important strategic material related to the national economy and people's livelihood and national economic security, but also the most basic living materials for the people.Grain security is closely related to the harmony of society, the stability of politics, and the sustainable development of the economy.Improving the food emergency reserve system, ensuring the supply of food markets, and minimizing the risk of grain safety in the emergency state period is the government's duties and an important part of the food security security system.

Editor -in -chief: Xu Yunqian Editor: Gong Peijia

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