RMB exchange rate toughness shows that China's asset attraction has continued to increase

In the past year, the RMB to the US dollar exchange rate intermediate price trend. Data source: China Currency Network

Affected by multiple factors, the RMB exchange rate has recently shown a large fluctuation. However, the current RMB to a basket of currency exchange rate index is still above 100. Compared with the major non -US dollar currency in the world, it shows strong toughness and stability.

Industry insiders said that the subsequent RMB exchange rate trend will continue to be affected by multiple factors internal and external factors. By -way fluctuations are normal, but they will still maintain basically stability at a reasonable balance. In addition, a number of foreign institutions also said recently that China's long -term development prospects are better, the impact of short -term exchange rate fluctuations is limited, and Chinese assets are still attractive to foreign capital.

Short -term fluctuation does not change the RMB exchange rate strong toughness

On August 30, the People's Bank of China authorized the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center to announce that the RMB intermediate price of the US dollar was reported at 6.8802, which was degraded by 104 basis points compared to the previous trading day. On the same day, the RMB closing price of the US dollar was 6.8980.

Data show that since August 12, the US dollar index has risen from about 105 to the current 109, and has risen 4%to reach a new high in nearly 20 years. "At present, the global foreign exchange market has a strong pattern of US dollar and weak dollar currency. As a non -US dollar currency RMB, it has also been affected." Said Zhao Qingming, deputy dean of China Foreign Exchange Investment Research Institute.

Wang Youxin, a senior researcher at the Bank of China Research Institute, believes that recently the central bank has lowered the interest rate (LPR) interest rate (LPR) interest rate (LPR) interest rate (LPR) interest rate (LPR) interest rate (LPR) of the China -Bank Bank.

However, it is worth noting that the current RMB's basket currency exchange rate index is still above 100. Compared with the major non -US dollar currency in the world, the RMB exchange rate also shows strong toughness and stability. Data show that during the same period, the exchange rates of the euro, yen, and pounds fell by 3.84%, 4.37%, and 4.43%respectively. Fall.

"my country's economic stability and recovery, the main economic indicators are good, and the industrial chain and supply chain remain stable. It will continue to play the fundamental role of supporting the RMB exchange rate." Wang Chunying, deputy director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, said recently that my country's foreign trade and foreign capital have strong toughness. The inflow of funds at the real economic level helps the basic balance of supply and demand of the foreign exchange market.

Looking forward to the long -term trend of the renminbi, industry insiders generally believe that the subsequent RMB exchange rate trend will continue to be affected by multiple factors internal and external factors. Two -way fluctuations are normal, but they will still maintain basically stability at a reasonable and balanced level. The continuous implementation of the stabilization of the economic series of measures, coupled with the introduction of new continuation measures, will consolidate the economic recovery to a good trend and enhance the fundamental support for the RMB exchange rate.

Guan Tao, the chief economist of BOC Securities, said that under the "five -weight protection" of basic revenue and expenditure, non -governmental secondary foreign reserves, macro -prudential measures, capital foreign exchange management, and foreign exchange reserve intervention, China has confidence, conditions, and having some The ability to maintain the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level is basically stable.

Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher at the Everbright Bank Financial Market Department, also believes that the exchange rate of the RMB in the middle and long -term period will eventually return to the fundamental aspect. my country continues to deepen reform and opening up, accelerate the construction of a new development pattern of dual -cycle, promote industrial upgrading, improve economic efficiency, and release huge market potential. Global investment, asset allocation, and wealth management of hot soil; from the perspective, the global economy is facing deep -seated structural problems and non -traditional problems. The infinite loose and potential sequelae of major European and American economies in financial, monetary policies in major European and American economies, and the long -term value of RMB asset allocation.

Foreign capital is optimistic about the long -term investment value of Chinese assets

As the RMB exchange rate decreases in the short term, the northern direction has recently fluctuated to a certain extent. But overall, foreign investors have still bought my country's securities since August. Many foreign institutions have recently stated that the influence of short -term exchange rate fluctuations is limited and will continue to be optimistic about investment opportunities in the Chinese stock market and the bond market.

The State Administration of Foreign Exchange has recently said that the foreign exchange market in my country has always shown strong toughness. Cargo trade has a high surplus, actual use of foreign capital to maintain growth, and continuously exerts the basic role of stable cross -border capital flows and foreign exchange markets. At the same time, since August, foreign investors have bought my country's securities overall, reflecting the long -term investment value of RMB assets.

"In the face of inflation pressure at the rate hike cycle, the world's major currencies have a great depreciation of the US dollar, and the RMB is relatively strong." Xie Zhengzhang, director of Jingshun A -share investment, business strategy and development, also told the Economic Reference Newspaper "The reporter, the continuous growth of China's exports proved that the export capacity of Chinese products has not been affected by the epidemic. The thickened trade surplus also helps the worries of capital outflows caused by the depreciation pressure of the hedging part. On the whole, most foreign investors hold long -term vision of Chinese stock investment. The depreciation of the short -term RMB will not cause significant capital outflows.

Chen Li, chief economist of Chuancai Securities and director of the Institute, also said that for foreign investment, maintaining basic stability of the exchange rate can reduce the risk of potential exchange rates on the one hand, and on the other hand, it helps to reduce costs. In recent years, the internationalization level of the RMB has been further improved, and the risk aversion attributes have increased, increasing confidence in foreign investment in RMB assets.

Looking forward to the market outlook, a number of foreign institutions believe that considering China's macroeconomic fundamentals and policy factor, RMB stock debt assets are still strongly attractive. "This year's policy orientation is mainly based on steady growth, and the impact of the medium and long -term epidemic is expected to be weakened. In addition, China has found a relatively large -volume emerging industry, such as new energy vehicles, photovoltaic wind power, artificial intelligence, etc. In the middle and long term, it should be able to pick up the next stick. "Xie Zhengzheng said," China's industrial upgrading is still continuing. China has a huge high -quality labor population, technological innovation driving force is still active, product export competitiveness is still strong, we are still strong, we are still strong. We are still strong. I think it can still find industries and stocks with global competitiveness in the Chinese stock market. "

The report released by JPMorgan Chase also recently believes that investors can consider the recent low valuation of China's stock market as an opportunity to further increase positions. Due to the improvement of the currency supply and the alleviating the basic period effect of the second half of the year, holding a more constructive point of view of the Chinese market. Star Show Bank believes that it is continuously optimistic about the Chinese stock market benefiting from the local economic development, and after the recovery, the valuation of the Chinese stock market has become more attractive.

For the bond market, the latest data show that global funds are returning to China Treasury in July. Zhao Zhixuan, a strategist in Asia's foreign exchange and interest rate strategist, told reporters that global investors bought Chinese Treasury bonds in July. Essence However, in addition to Chinese Treasury bonds, foreign investors still have low participation in other bond categories. Zhao Zhixuan predicts that with the advancement of China's capital market in two ways, the influence of other bond categories may rise. (Reporter Luo Yi Xiang Jiaying)

Source: Economic Reference News

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