RMB to the US dollar exchange rate hit a two -year low!The Federal Reserve may continue to raise interest rates. What is the trend of the RMB in the future?

Author:Economic Daily Time:2022.08.31

On August 29, the US dollar index refreshed a 20 -year high. Non -U.S. currency adjusted. The offshore RMB fell below the US dollar below 6.93 and the US dollar fell below 6.92 to the US dollar.

On August 31, the exchange rate of the US dollar to the US dollar increased slightly by more than 10 points, recovering the 6.91 mark. At the same time, the offshore RMB shocked the short -term range of the US dollar and fluctuated near 6.92. On the same day, the middle price of the RMB to the US dollar decreased by 104 basis points from the previous trading day to 6.8906.

Why did the RMB to the US dollar fell? How does it affect my country's import and export trade? The Fed may continue to raise interest rates in the future. What is the trend of the RMB exchange rate? Let's look at this issue of Quick Questions ↓↓↓

Question: Why did the RMB to the US dollar fell?

Answer: Behind the renminbi, the US dollar index is constantly strengthening. The main reason for this round of dollars is that the Federal Reserve must adopt a radical interest rate hike strategy for anti -inflation. From the perspective of the long cycle, the US dollar is currently at the top, but it may continue to be innovative in the future.

At present, the entire global foreign exchange market has a strong US dollar, non -American and weak pattern. As a major non -US currency RMB, it is impossible to be alone. There are two reasons for the rise of the US dollar. The main reason is that the euro and yen accounted for a large proportion of the US dollar index are too weak. At present, the economic fundamentals and expectations of the euro zone are not good. The energy crisis has made the euro zone economy further shadow. In addition, high inflation and geopolitical risks are superimposed. In this context, the euro rise has no motivation.

The reason for the secondary aspect is that the US economy and the Federal Reserve monetary policy can support the strength of the US dollar index. The exchange rate is a relative price. Compared with Europe, the fundamentals of the US economy are better. Including employment and manufacturing indicators can support the US dollar index a certain support.

Question: How does it affect my country's import and export trade?

Answer: At present, my country's foreign exchange market subject participates in more rationality and maintains a transaction model of "settlement at high exchange". The exchange rate is expected to be stable, which will help the RMB exchange rate to maintain basic stability at a reasonable and balanced level. For a long time, my country's foreign exchange market has shown strong toughness. Cargo trade has a high surplus, actual use of foreign capital to maintain growth, and continuously exerts the basic role of stable cross -border capital flows and foreign exchange markets.

The Recently released "China Monetary Policy Implementation Report in the second quarter of 2022" released by the People's Bank of China pointed out that since 2022, cross -border capital flows and foreign exchange supply and demand have basically balanced, and the market is expected to be stable.

The rise and fall of exchange rates is a "double -edged sword" for the foreign trade industry. Moderate depreciation of the RMB exchange rate is conducive to improving the competitiveness and price advantages of export trade, and promoting the recovery of the real economy, but the import costs of imported enterprises will increase.

Q: The Fed may continue to raise interest rates in the future. What is the trend of the RMB exchange rate?

Answer: For the next RMB trend, in the context of a high probability of exports to the US dollar and my country, the RMB exchange rate may be under pressure in the short term, and the real exchange rate of the renminbi in the middle and long term is more tough. Whether the renminbi will continue to be adjusted down, depending on whether the factors that affect the RMB exchange rate in the future are the short and the upper hand, which is not a simple and short -to -short number of factors.

Increased exchange rate elasticity will help release market pressure in time and avoid expected accumulation. Multi -short and short market switching will be completed instantly. In addition, policy factors will be an important variable. After "Breaking 7" in August 2019, the RMB exchange rate can be up and down. Now, regardless of the government and the market, the tolerance and adaptability of the two -way fluctuations of exchange rates and broad shocks are greatly enhanced. However, if the flock effect or exchange rate risks of the market in the future market will have the risk of super -adjusted the risk of exchange rates, it is believed that relevant parties will still make policies in a timely manner.