"Finance and Economics" Chen Daofu: economic and financial risks and management in the application of fintech

Chen Daofu: economic and financial risks and management in fintech applications

Finance

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-01-Understanding of financial risks in the environment

In the digital financial environment, financial risks have changed. In order to better understand this change, it is necessary to return to the source of risks to re -examine the financial behavior and risks in the digital environment.

(1) The concept of risk

The fundamental goal of individuals or communities at a certain level is to maintain the continued existence and development of the individual and the community of the level. Therefore, the risk eventually comes from the "out of control" and "unsatisfactory" in individual behavior or community operation, destroying the foundation of the existence of individuals and communities. Among them, "unsatisfactory" is fundamentally referring to the existence and virtuous cycle of the individual or community. In this sense, risks are equivalent to "out of control" and "unsatisfactory".

(2) Source of risks

Risk performance is uncertainty. Based on the origin of "out of control" and "unsatisfactory", the risk in reality comes from three aspects. First, invisible risks. The unknown includes both unknown and unknown, and also includes a blind eye, but the common point is that the risk of individuals or communities cannot be seen. At this time, it is completely uncontrollable. Determine source. The second is an uncontrollable risk. For individuals and communities, controllable means that only choices are selected, and only in uncontrollable results have to bear the possible results, so they are uncertain. Of course, an uncontrollable factors may be from the outside of the individual or community system, which is objective for individuals and communities, or it may come from the inherent imbalance of the rules that support individuals or communities inside individuals or communities, that is, because because of because of because of the rules of individuals or communities, that is, because of because because The internal rules are biased, which leads to the continuous accumulation of behavior in a certain direction that ultimately surpass the overall risk tolerance of the system. It is subjective for individuals and communities and unnecessary uncertainty. The third is an unbearable risk. There are always some accumulation of individuals or communities to absorb the disturbance caused by external impact. However, the ability of each system to withstand losses or disturbances is bounded. If this threshold is exceeded, the system may collapse. The risk tolerance of the system is related to the level of the individual's risk preparation, but also the dispersion and responsibility mechanism of the system. Reasonable dispersion and sharing risk will help improve the ability of the system to bear external impact and improve the toughness of the system.

(3) The core of risk management

The world exists and runs because of "yes", but risks often emphasize "no". Therefore, the core of risk management is to find "yes" from "not". It is the art that is from broken to stand, and needs to be practiced from academic to practice.

To understand risks from this perspective, the core of risk management is that the community of each level can find the center, and help the system of the system, that is, a valuable behavior from the perspective of the system, or it must be used in accordance with the law and used it. The community is finally manifested as a relatively stable structure and can exert certain effects. To form and maintain a certain structure, a set of rules and rules that have a common "spirit" need to form a system, that is, ecology. Different forces form and maintain structure, such as control and guidance, have different characteristics and effects, and adapt to different external environments. The changes in the external environment promote the change of the system, grow or fade, and become a source of risks of the system.

Further, the risk management is to enter into the "rational and unsatisfactory" of the "reasonable and unsatisfactory" of the status quo and see the status quo of the status quo. Consensus and rules, thereby guiding the system to evolve towards the direction of the intention, allowing individuals to be free on the basis of all responsibilities, thereby stimulating individual vitality, accepting and bearing the consequences of uncontrollable factors. In fact, the less "seeing", the less "uncontrollable" factors, the more risk management can be converted into a strategic choice.

(4) The real economy, financial assets, and digital economy build different levels of operating mechanisms

On the basis of the real physical world, through the law, financial melting and digitalization, three parallel worlds, namely the real economy, financial world, and digital world, and reducing the cost of cooperation in the physical world through the latter, and finally promoting the physical world Change. The operation and cooperation of the real economy is completed through the current intersection of the supply and demand curve of the goods and services, which is manifested as a point in time and space, which is presented at prices. Therefore, the real economy can be considered to promote the operation of the physical world in the supply and demand relationship. The time dimension of the financial world is based on re -integration of resources in the future.

To this end, the past and the future need to be connected to the future to introduce models and trust. As long as a certain economic operation model is recognized by society, we can gather and use resources. The digital world is further and further integrated, which can not only extend the time dimension, but also extend simultaneously in other dimensions. The linear model is expanded into a three -dimensional ecology. Or the digital world is an ecological operation based on rules or rules. The choice of the real economy is to have a relationship of certain types of supply and demand. The financial world can become a choice of models, and in the digital world, it has risen to the choice of ecology. In this way, due to the different levels of integration and connection, risks have different meanings in different worlds. The real economy is manifested as growth, fluctuations and inflation, and shrinkage. The financial world manifests as expansion, contraction and asset bubbles, and debt tightening. The digital world has realized creation, destruction and evolution, and transformation.

(5) Look at the impact of digital finance at different perspectives

Observing digital finance from a practical perspective is actually a complex composed of four dimensions including data, technology, finance, and social ethics. Therefore, the impact of digital finance can be seen from these four perspectives, but as far as human society is concerned, In the end, it must be attributed to the impact of the rights and obligations of people.

1. Data level

The collection, storage, processing, and use of data are observed from the data dimension. Linking the data world has become data governance, involving data security, personal privacy, data value, etc., especially how to achieve data sharing and value sharing, how to balance data security, privacy, and value mining sharing.

2. Technical level

Data and technology are different. You should not be mixed to talk about it. Technology is constantly developing and perfect, so technology itself will have uncertainty, such as model risk, technological evolution path risk. From a person's perspective, it involves how to distinguish between technology risks and risks of judgment and use of technology. These two categories are different risks and different abilities.

3. Financial level

The essence of finance is the relationship between people, based on the universal trust that re -configures the rights of people in time and space to create value (wealth) more efficiently (wealth). Therefore, the core of finance is the trust between human beings, and the cross -time and space re -configuration of trust -based human rights.

Digital finance has changed the risk characteristics of the existing financial world from three aspects. The first is that the foundation of trust is changing. Humanity based on human behavior, including sovereign behavior, is generally trustworthy, and non -human trust (procedural trust) based on data and algorithms, that is, the decentralized trust system now. The second is that the tail customers begin to enter the financial service group. The behavioral characteristics of such groups are different from the main customer groups of financial world services, and financial risks have begun to interact with social risks and become more complicated. The third is the changes in risk characteristics. The price of the real economy fluctuates, and the asset bubble of the financial world has transformed into ecological characteristics. Human cognitive ability is increasingly insufficient, and the easier it is to lose. The changes in risk characteristics affect people's behavior, from economic constraints to target selection, information acquisition and judgment, and institutional constraints. On the surface, the risk bearing is a self -cognition, self -judgment and self -undertaking by individuals, but in fact more and more factors have affected individual self -awareness (target selection), external environmental cognition, judgment and constraints.

4. Social and ethical level

In the digital era, artificial intelligence began to replace the work of the human brain, which caused a large number of social and ethical issues. In fact, after the introduction of legal persons -the company, the company has caused the asymmetry of the company and the power and status of nature. An important function of society is to help individuals, especially the disadvantaged groups, to balance the strength between the two to form an effective mutual checks and balances. The digital age is further introduced to "artificial intelligence people", which is both "enable" technology and "alternative" technology. Human beings are in a collective confusion and re -reflect on the value and significance of man.

The digital age also digitizes daily work and life, especially integrated into ecology. Some human weaknesses that humans have "daily use and unknown" have been presented quickly and exaggerated, especially by intentionally or unintentional use, triggering social and ethical crisis. Typical such as "information cocoon houses", as well as the behavior of various discrimination hidden in human society, transformed into the digital world through opaque and difficult to find algorithms, and so on. (6) How to affect the source and performance of digital finance affects risks

Digital finance is through the source and performance of risks that can be influenced by knowledge, controllable, and tolerance.

1. Knowledge level

The digital age is to transform realistic and holographic events in real time into digital spaces. This is actually a homogeneous mapping of the real world. However, reality is an infinitely -dimensional holographic world. The process of digitalization is a limited dimension reduction process. It will be restricted by the original understanding of the world, data collection channels, and technologies, and then affects individual information acquisition, interpretation and cognition. Of course, compared to the perception ability of natural people and the processing method of the financial world, although the digital world still has self -locking and anti -human problems, the information is more real -time and interfaces, so it has more dimensions. Therefore, in general, digital finance can objectively reduce uncertainty risks caused by invisible invisible, but it is still not ruled out that unknown uncertainty risks that are unknown with human cognition.

2. Control degree

The community dimension of digital finance has increased, focusing on the controllability of the rules (certainty), and even on the controllability (certainty) of the rules, allowing specific rules (rules to form) ecology Self -evolution. Individuals become an internal component of a system of the system, that is, to jointly implement a function, rather than external supply sources or service objects. While improving the system (ecological) boundary, individual risks are transformed into systemic risks.

This introduces a variety of so -called Internet thinking. In addition to the dislocation of the service object and the charging object (indicating that the relationship between the two is inside the system rather than the outside of the system), typical assessment and control of credit risk, from external static rating to internal dynamic display. Taking credit cards as an example, the risk control of traditional banks is to evaluate individuals in detail based on a set of evaluation models. From the selection of white list customers to determine the credit limit, and maintain stable credit services for a period of time. However, in the digital finance world, only one very preliminary assessment is made, and after eliminating fraud and other factors, it will be given to all individual basic credit quotas, that is, remove the blacklist and then apply the large number of laws, and then improve the individual assessment in practice based on individual behavior. That is, to display individual risk differences through individual behavior, and continuously strengthen individual characteristics through self -reinforcement mechanisms. If the individual is worthy of trust, the bank will give a greater credit limit. If it is not trustworthy, take the original trust.

At present, digital finance can be well embedded in the daily behavior (work, life) of individuals and institutions. Through scenes, it is obtained, evaluated, and services. Financial functions are obvious. Risk is associated with real behaviors, with value, so that risk shifts from the outside to the inside.

3. Tolerance level

Digital finance constitutes traditional financial institutions as links and nodes, and builds new rights, responsibilities and transaction structures through algorithms, contracts, etc., thereby destroying the function of absorbing risks of traditional financial institutions and fully dispersing risks to the ecosystem. Different types of risks, that is, formed node finance. Under the traditional financial perspective, a large number of shadow financial systems have appeared, but from the perspective of digital finance, risks have been better dispersed, risks are more market -oriented, and the toughness of the system is improved, and the risks of ecology are finally transformed into ecology. During the transformation period, digital finance started to compete with the blue ocean from long -tail customers. In the early days, he had to face the new behavior characteristics and greater social risks of the new customer group.

(7) Digital finance brings different prices and liquidity risks

1. Price risk

The price of the real economy is determined by the supply and demand curve, and the price curve formed is relatively smooth and smooth. The supply and demand curve in the financial market still plays a role, but it is expected to play an important role and reflect more information changes. Generally speaking, the trend of asset prices is dominated by unknown and unable to trading factors, and the factors of known and transaction can be fully entered the existing price. Therefore, although the price of assets still has a certain trend, the short -term fluctuations are large and the expected decline is decreased.

With the development of digital technology, the collection, processing, analysis of information, and the diffusion capacity and speed of different groups are extremely high. It can be known that and the transaction area expands. The trend gradually disappears. The price may approach the real random walking model quickly. Essence Therefore, theoretically price signals in digital finance will fluctuate in step -level, reflecting all the impact of new information on prices.

Currency and price are essentially through the quality and characteristics of continuous segmentation of goods and services to make it a different market segment, so that the comparison and dimension of different commodities and services are compared to a single price, making transactions possible, reducing transaction cost. From the perspective of digital financial development trends, digital technology does not need to match the transaction products and services through currency and prices, which has the possibility of multi -dimensional direct matching. Therefore, the development of digital finance will continuously weaken the necessity of prices, but it will increase the necessity of value sharing in the ecology, that is, the need for pity and trust will increase.

2. Liquidity risk

The core of liquidity risk is trust. The liquidity of government bonds is higher than bank bonds, which is essentially because of different trust. The risk of liquidity, especially the market, must change the degree of trust in society. The fundamental reason for the loss of liquidity in the United States in 2008 and China in 2013, the root cause is the disappearance of trust. The foundation of the trust of digital finance has changed. In the field of traditional financial business, the tail customer base makes the risk of digital finance no longer distributed, but has a strong deviation, which will change our solvency requirements for traditional financial institutions based on risk distribution. Capital is a non -expected risk loss. In the distribution of fatty tails, normalized reserve requirements may be reduced. However, considering the herd effect and social risks, the risk preparation of inverse cycles may be needed. The development of decentralized finance provides another perspective for us to observe the liquidity risk of digital finance. At present, cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin are related, which is not related to the depth of the market, and it is also related to the lack of inherent value anchors. However, the development of digital assets for liquidity is different from traditional finance, and its risk characteristics may need to be further observed and studied. -02-deconstruction and reconstruction: risk management of digital transformation and transformation

(1) Transformation risk

Digital transformation is actually a broad -minded process of refactoring the reconstruction of bank -enterprise relations. The traditional bank -enterprise relationship is to treat banks or financial institutions, enterprises, individuals, and governments as independent atoms. Independent atoms generate limited connections through business. It is the Japanese and German model, or the British and American model. However, the common point of all models is that financial institutions are independent atoms, and enterprises, individuals, or governments are also independent atoms. They have some internal connections, but they are more connected through external businesses.

The process of digitalization, if the characteristics of technical characteristics are removed, its business characteristics are to eliminate the boundaries of financial institutions and eliminate the boundaries of enterprises, individuals and governments. The point, it opens the business chain and refines the process. At this time, the connection between them is not the connection between the business and the institution and the institution, but the connection of a certain chain of the business. This kind of connection is embedded. Various measures such as open scenarios and smart finance are to open the chain and then get involved. After intervention, you need to re -understand what is financial business and what is financial activities, especially what is financial activities from the perspective of the link. At present, these concepts are becoming more and more blurred, and the border of financial institutions is blurred and the definition of financial business is blurred. For example, is the financial link considered a financial business? What is the risk control model? What is the boundary of independent risk control? Real -time monitoring calculation technical services or financial business? Fund delivery calculates the basic characteristics of financial business or the basic characteristics of funds? Therefore, the process of digital financial transformation is the process of reshaping.

The process of reshaping is actually happening, and the division of labor becomes more abundant, and then there will be deconstruction process, and the reconstruction will occur. This change does not only occur in a single financial institution. It will be divided according to data -based logic on the entire financial industry and the main society. In other words, in the middle state, the deconstruction and reconstruction of the logic of traditional financial institutions and traditional businesses appeared.

After the logic of data -driven is more enhanced, we will see the organization architecture mainly based on data logic. In this case, it will constitute a scenario of transformation, which will involve the transformation of traditional financial institutions to modern financial institutions. This process will have a large deconstruction and reconstruction, involving broken harmony. Relations are different from traditional financial institutions that are different from the stage of my use. It is a destructive construction with paradigm transformation characteristics. At this time, the management of transformation risks is very important.

(2) Digital transformation of different subjects

1. Traditional financial institutions

In the process of digital transformation of traditional financial institutions, the strategies adopted by large financial institutions and small and medium -sized financial institutions are different, but no matter which type of institutions, on the surface, business and data are dual -drive, but they are actually driven by business drive as the drive as the business driver. Digital transformation of the Lord. At present, the transformation to the bottleneck period or turning point is basically completed, but the platformization and digitalization have just begun. In other words, physical changes have been completed, but chemical changes have not yet begun, and it will still be in difficult transformation. In order to welcome the digital era, traditional financial institutions can only be digitized, but in order to retain the competitive advantage and even obtain curve overtaking, it is necessary to comprehensively integrate the concept, thinking and mechanism, and organizing the digital economy.

2. Technology company

Technology companies have deeply involved in the field of credit, and cross -border competition and grassroots finance have appeared. With the gradual standardization of platform finance, the financial business licenses are required to hold licenses and online and offline integration, and technology companies have begun to focus on how to cooperate closely with traditional financial institutions.

From the perspective of financial business or traditional financial institutions, technology companies serve the digital transformation of traditional financial institutions and are outsourcing service providers of traditional financial institutions. Therefore, future development will still be based on financial institutions. However, from the perspective of the data industry, there are complete industrial chains such as data collection, storage, processing, and monetization. The process of digitalization of financial institutions is actually incorporated into the use of data use and monetization. CCCC is intertwined.

3. Development of decentralized finance Observing the digital transformation of finance, there is also a perspective that cannot be ignored, that is, the development of decentralized finance based on blockchain. At present, the development of this system has greatly dismissed the framework of traditional finance, different trust foundations, transactions and pricing logic, and financial behavior, and some have tried to link with reality to form a hard mapping. Decentralized finance has developed rapidly, and many of them have failed, but there are many good ideas. At present, the development prospects are unknown, and it is necessary to pay attention.

The digital transformation of finance has begun. Future finance exists in the form of explicit financial institutions, or the successful transformation capacity, and embedded in the work and life scenarios of enterprises, individuals, and our practice. From a macro perspective, we need to manage the risk of deconstruction and reconstruction. Digitalization is the direction, but the transformation is too fast. Traditional financial institutions may collapse, and it requires good strategies and rates to break and stand.

-03-ideas and suggestions for fintech supervision

Whether it is the narrative logic of financial business, the digital transformation is understood as a business outsourcing model, or a more fine granular cooperation based on the business chain, or the data narrative logic, forming various platforms, ecology, finance with empowerment and connection functions, financial ecology, finance, financial finance, finance The focus is on the institution to nodes, paying more attention to functions and behaviors. To this end, it is necessary to rethink financial supervision.

(1) Basic ideas of fintech supervision

1. Map the two different fintech supervision ideas under the perspective

A perspective is to regard digital finance as a digital mapping of real finance. The financial business is about to map to digital space through digitalization and complete financial services in digital space, that is, homogeneous mapping. Therefore, financial supervision must also be mapped to digital space through digitalization. Traditional financial supervision mainly includes three aspects: capital, behavior, and balance, that is, protecting small and medium investors and consumers, and forming relatively balanced market forces to check and balance each other. The key here is to find the corresponding object of digital space financial supervision.

One idea is based on the existing financial supervision as the reference department, equivalent digital space to the realistic financial regulatory framework, the method is to correspond, penetrate and follow the principle of essence. The main body of behavior and behavior should be transformed into "artificial intelligence people" (or nodes), behavior (characteristics) into algorithm operation (characteristics), and the connection channels of service objects are transformed into APP, web pages, and APIs. The financial subjects, behaviors corresponding to digital space penetrate and use the principles that are substantially focused on formal principles into the elements in the existing regulatory framework. Similar principles and technologies are used for supervision. Supervision.

Another idea is to refine the granularity of the supervision and migrate the real financial supervision to the digital space. The principles and technologies of supervision are reinterprented according to the detailed and combined results of the financial business chain (node ​​finance) to form a corresponding node supervision, and conform to the granularity and node of the financial business. The key to this process is to understand the essence of supervision and reasonable decomposition (deconstruction). In essence of financial supervision, to ensure that each participating subject is right and responsible, etc., and internalize it as much as possible. In other words, it is to ensure that the appropriate person (shareholders, executives, marketing and professionals) and institutions targeting appropriate customers (qualified investors: professional knowledge, risk tolerance, and civil abilities) in the appropriate form (behavioral supervision: associated association Transaction, monopoly behavior, information disclosure) provides suitable products and services (between suitable crowds, under the environment where the necessary disclosure of information and relatively balanced market forces, publicly and fairly carry out legal activities, that is, to ensure that the participants have sufficient information Knowledge, professional ability and risk bearing, I believe that the market can form an efficient transaction and price).

2. Financial supervision based on the digital age

The process of transforming digital finance is not just a mapping process. This is like the conversion of agricultural society to industrial society, not just to simply undertake agricultural society, but to develop a huge new world. After maping traditional finance to digital space, with the opening of the data governance and data industry chain, new business, new logic, new organization methods, and even new features will be formed. Finance is essentially based on a trust -based social cooperation model. Digital finance has changed the foundation of general trust in society, and social value and trading logic have also changed. Therefore, transactions and ecological development based on multi -dimensional pairs will become the main body of financial services. Financial functions will belong to digital governance, and financial supervision will be included in the category of digital governance. At present, data sharing based on data security and privacy protection has been realized, but it is difficult to share the social cooperation mechanism of data benefits. In this regard, there are still many jobs to do, especially to explore in the digital world. Although the current decentralized finance or digital assets can easily evolve into a variety of scams in China, we still need to pay close attention to the development of this field and pay attention to the supervision and exploration of other countries in the world in the field of digital assets, including digital currency Exploration.

(2) The focus and suggestions of fintech supervision

1. Clarify the meaning of financial technology, define financial institutions and financial behavior

The financial attributes need to be strictly defined. The institution is a node for risks and undertaking. Therefore, financial institutions can be identified from the occurrence of financial risks and undertaking the subject, and nodes are required to have sufficient capital to absorb losses, as well as professional capabilities (talents, organizations and mechanisms) of risk recognition, pricing and disposal. Finance is to deal with the relationship between cash flow rights and obligations between people. It can be converted according to whether the cash flow characteristics of assets or objects can be realized, such as the determination of the financial risk to change and bear the financial risk. In addition, using financial products / services as the standard to identify financial behavior, it is necessary to strengthen behavior management (sales and services) of customers to reach nodes, and rational management in transactions with partners. 2. Careful management of nodes (institutions) based on risk bearing

The system disperses through nodes and bear the final risk. In order to ensure the stability of the system, each node needs to be micro and macro -prudential. This requires necessary requirements for capital, internal mechanisms, and professional capabilities that undertake risk nodes. In some links of fintech companies participating in the subdivision of the financial business, they only need to submit cautious management requirements such as capital with the same risks that are consistent with their actual risks. Specifically, it is necessary to have sufficient professional capabilities, design and operating good mechanisms, and sufficient capital, and confirm it through licenses or qualifications.

3. Strengthen behavioral supervision based on algorithm

Most of the behavior of fintech companies is implemented through algorithms. To this end, in addition to the use of traditional accounting, audit, lawyers and other intermediary organizations, it is also necessary to strengthen behavior supervision based on algorithms. Behavior supervision can be carried out mainly in three links: customers reach and services, transactions with partners, products and services design and provide. Financial regulatory requirements, social ethics and antitrust reviews can be embedded in behavior monitoring.

4. Take supervision methods and means suitable for fintech

The first is to classify multi -level licenses and qualification management. Finance is an industry with strong externality and high professionalism, and still needs to adhere to licensed operations and qualification management. However, the development of fintech has refined the original business links and the socialization of division of labor. A single comprehensive license is easy to restrain the natural evolution of division of labor cooperation. In order to retain sufficient space and flexibility for digital finance, it can adopt classified multi -level licenses and qualification management. Methods, the corresponding business access licenses are issued according to the actual business type of fintech companies, which require strict qualification management when they involve professional functions and face public positions.

The second is to vigorously develop regulatory technology and build a national level of supervision big data platforms. The digitalization of finance also needs to regulate digitalization, including the construction of regulatory big data, digitalization and standardization of regulatory rules, and digitalization and intelligence of regulatory methods. To this end, the regulatory authorities can cooperate with the network security department (such as the National Internet Emergency Center) to jointly build a big data regulatory platform and use scientific and technological means to promote the informationization and intelligence of regulatory work.

The third is to adjust the supervision organization and personnel settings, further improve the supervision sandbox mechanism, and solve the lag of supervision. In order to digitize the digitalization of financial institutions, especially the development of financial technology companies, it can be considered to set up a high -level chief technology officer or chief data officer and supporting support department within the regulatory agency. In order to improve the forward -looking and effectiveness of supervision, my country can also consider establishing a regional innovation center as soon as possible, increase the promotion of supervision sandbox pilots, improve the efficiency and adaptability of the pilot, and better monitor the risk scale of the pilot fintech products and the risk scale and the risk scale of the pilot fintech products. feasibility.

Chen Daofu: Member of Chang'an Street Reading Club and Deputy Director of the Financial Institute of the Development Research Center of the State Council

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