Continue to consolidate the trend of economic recovery

In July, in the face of the increasingly complicated and severe situation of the international environment, and the disadvantage of the domestic epidemic, my country's economy handed over a hard -won answer sheet. The production supply continues to recover, the employment price is generally stable, the foreign trade has increased well, the people's livelihood protection is strong and effective, and the economic continuation recovery trend fully indicates that the Chinese economy is stable and good. vitality.

We must correctly understand the reasons for some data fluctuations in July, grasp the elasticity and toughness of the Chinese economy, and recognize the solid foundation and development trend of China's economic recovery. For example, although consumption fell in July, office supplies, cars, etc. have maintained a high speed, which indicates that China's consumption is still in the process of continuous improvement; the fall of investment growth is mainly reflected in private investment, real estate, tertiary industries and other fields However, infrastructure investment, high -tech industrial investment, and social field investment have maintained double -digit growth, indicating that investment still has greater recovery potential; The decline, but the industrial automobile manufacturing, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing have maintained a high speed growth, indicating that the endogenous power of the industrial recovery has not weakened; the growth rate of China's exports has continued to increase, indicating that Chinese products have in the environment where countries have inflation in inflation in various countries have a comprehensive and high -enterprise environment in inflation. Powerful competitiveness. This is enough to prove that the fluctuations of some data in July have certain accidental and exogenous nature, and it does not mean that the trend of China's macroeconomic recovery has changed. It should be seen that there is still room for further improvement in the core indicators that marked the continuous improvement of China's economy.

At present, it is a window period and critical period that continues to consolidate the trend of economic recovery. First, the successful epidemic prevention and control and rapid resumption of work have created good conditions for the large -scale economic cycle; the second is that the epidemic relief policy and economic recovery plan create more kinetic energy for the domestic economic cycle; the third is the export growth rate Continuously injecting continuous foreign demand for the restoration of China's economy; the fourth is that the rapid rebound of the economy in June indicates that the Chinese economy has passed the difficulty period. However, we must also understand that the momentum must not be possible, and we must consolidate the foundation of economic recovery development with the sense of urgency of urgency from time to time. To grasp the window of economic recovery, we need to enhance endogenous development momentum in policy support, further implement the strategy of expanding domestic demand, increase the efforts of resolving major contradictions and major risks, and accelerate the cultivation of vitality within the economic cycle.

my country's economy has strong elasticity and toughness, and the foundation of recovery is still very solid. In addition to the impact of the epidemic, we must also deeply grasp the deep -seated issues that affect the continuous recovery of the economy: how to effectively prevent the risks of real estate companies, explore new development models, promote the virtuous cycle and healthy development of the real estate industry; how to avoid various risks impact impact People have the expectations of economic development and enhance their confidence in economic recovery. In fact, the Central Political Bureau meeting held at the end of July has formulated scientific plans and made comprehensive deployment. The combination of spirit and grass -roots innovation will certainly enable the policy and measures of the stability of the economy to further play a role, comprehensively improve the confidence of economic subjects and present new vitality.

We must strengthen our confidence and see the certainty of my country's economic fundamentals in the uncertain impact, and find that the huge space of my country's macro policy regulation and control is still on our side when we see the situation. In -depth research and judgment of various major contradictions and main risks, deploying the decision -making of the Party Central Committee to implement it, and unswervingly do their own things, we must continue to consolidate the trend of economic recovery to a good trend, through temporary fluctuations and long -term growth.

(The author is the president of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics)

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