Public fund REITs lifted the "countdown"!

On June 21, the public offer REITs ushered in the first anniversary of listing, which also meant that some of the first batch of public offer REITs' strategic distribution and sales restrictions can enter the secondary market.

In the past year, the secondary market share of the public offering REITs has been showing the situation of "more monks and less porridge", and the price has been in a premium transaction for a long time. With the coming of the first lifting period, the first batch of public offer REITs is expected to double about doubled about double Essence

Several industry insiders said that lifting the ban may bring price shocks to the public offer REITs in the short term, but under the entry of large transactions and FOF incremental funds, the price is expected to gradually become stable. Asset allocation opportunities.

The first batch of nine public offer REITs are about to lift the ban

The first batch of infrastructure REITs entered the "countdown" for lifting the ban.

Recently, Hua'an Zhangjiang Guangyuan REIT issued an announcement of the release of restrictions, and 10 other professional institutional investors, including Shanghai International Group Asset Management Co., Ltd., will hold the 17,665 strategic matching sales restrictions held by the total. Lifn the ban on the day. This is also the third time that the fund has issued a prompt announcement for the release of limited sales since the end of May.

According to Wang Jiatong, the investment director of the Furong Fund public offerings, the total market value of the first 9 infrastructure REITs was 31.4 billion yuan, of which the market value (calculated at the issue price) was about 9.2 billion. The one -year strategic investor holding a share of about 9.6 billion, and these lock -up shares will be lifted on June 21 this year.

According to statistics from Huatai Securities, the average proportion of Nine public offerings REITs accounted for 33.9%of the average share of total share, exceeding the average ratio of the current share of 32.4%. Specifically, the lifting of AVIC Shougang REIT, Zhejiang Shanghuhang REIT, Soochow Su Garden Industry REIT, Hua'an Zhangjiang Guangda REIT shares are less than the current circulation share, accounting for 40%of the share of the ban/circulation share) ~ Between 80%; the lifeline of the Ficknin Water REIT, the Boshiko Snake Park Reit, and the Red Earth Yantian Port Rate's lifting shares are close or flat, accounting for between 90%and 110%; Los REIT's lifting share exceeds the current circulation share, accounting for between 130%and 190%.

In Wang Jiatong's opinion, the impact of the first trend of the public offering REITs on market liquidity is mainly manifested in: First, the increase in circulation in the entire REITs market is equivalent to increasing supply. Adjustment; the second is that the proportion of the entire REITs market value is different due to the different amount of the number of REITs, so the impact on the price will also be different. Riets with a large number of lifts, the market price is under pressure. Third, REITs with large market value after lifting the ban, or the configuration target of large funds such as insurance, the transaction volume will increase, which may drive the increase in the turnover rate. In addition, after the first batch of REITS projects, the changes in market prices will also drive the market price fluctuations of the two and three batches of REITs.

Li Jun, deputy general manager of the headquarters of the Soochow Fund REITs, said that the lifting of the restriction shares means that the market will add REITS circulation share supply. At present, the public offer REITs has accumulated more than the increase. Investors can sell redeem revenue, etc., and they need to be alert to lifting the ban. Bringing the sales pressure and price shock.

The willingness to reduce the holdings of trading institutions may be greater

Since its listing on June 21 last year, public offering REITs has become a beautiful landscape in the capital market, and it has also brought good benefits to investors. According to Wind data statistics, as of June 17, the number of Water Rickname REIT has risen by 41.38%since its listing. The warehousing logistics REIT and Hua'an Zhangjiang Guangyuan REIT 4 public offering REITs also increased by more than 20%. The nine public offering REITs listed on the first batch of the average increase of more than 22%. The "impulse" reduction.

Huatai Securities analysis pointed out that according to the type of investor, the first batch of public investors to lift the ban on institutional investors in institutional investors accounted for relatively high capital and industrial capital, with 31.28%and 27.72%. The asset management of securities firms also has a high percentage of 13.36%, 7.63%, and 6.58%, and there are also some banks, trusts, non -performing asset management companies, fund special accounts, private equity funds, bank wealth management subsidiaries and other types. Due to the different periods of liabilities and different investment preferences, industrial capital and insurance are mainly long -term investment and belong to the configuration institutions; wealth management subsidiaries, brokerage asset management, fund special accounts, etc. are mainly legal person products, and they have strong income motivations. Self -operating such as securities firms also belongs to trading institutions. You can pay attention to the lifting shares of different REITs to further analyze its potential selling pressure.

Wang Jiatong believes that the REITs with a relatively high increase in the early stage. When the end of the lifting period is over, if the secondary market price is appropriate and the holding share can get a good capital gain, then the battle for investors may choose to reduce the holdings according to their own situation. Essence As for whether the market will reduce the target and lead to a decline in price, it depends on the different situations of REITs: First, the proportion of the number of shares of the ban. If the original equity person holds a higher proportion, and the proportion of warfare is relatively low, the market increase is not large. Even if there is a reduction in holdings, the probability will not have a significant decline in prices. Second, the market's recognition of the quality of the underlying assets. Under the current economic situation and unclear investment prospects, if the infrastructure assets held by REITs can produce stable cash flow, and the industry's prosperity continues to increase. Investors do not necessarily reduce their holdings in large quantities. The third is the collaboration between strategic investors and issuers. If strategic investors have in-depth cooperation with the issuer, investing in public offering REITs is only a part of cooperation, and there are still many aspects of investment in Pre-REITs, asset mergers and acquisitions, then even if the ban is lifted, strategic investors will not sell a lot of selling. In addition, if the asset management product is a strategic investor and the product has a fixed period and the pressure of redemption, then the reduction of holdings after lifting the ban is inevitable, which will have a certain impact on the price of REITs. If it is long -term funds, the demand for reducing holdings may not be strong.

According to relevant regulations, the public offer FOF can only invest in fund products that have been established for one year, which also means that after the first anniversary of the listing of public offerings REITs, new investors are expected to usher in the market, and it will also support its secondary market price. "Since the public offer REITs is the 'IPO' of assets, it has both stocks and debt. It is itself a solid income+product, so it will also become a good choice for public funds for FOF configuration. At present, there are fewer market targets. The circulation market is small and cannot carry a large amount of configuration needs. After the market is lifted, coupled with the accelerated progress of regulatory approval, and the launch of the expansion, after the supply volume increases, the public offering FOF configuration will increase. "Wang Jiatong pointed out.

Reasonable view of investment opportunities for public offering REITs

For investors, market fluctuations before and after the ban on the REITs market may also contain a good opportunity to configure high -quality public offering REITs.

In Wang Jiatong's opinion, the configuration opportunities brought by the lifting of the public offer REITS market are mainly manifested in several aspects: First, the increase in supply may cause price changes. When the price has rational adjustment, for the high -quality public offer REITs of the underlying assets, It is better asset allocation opportunities; the second is that after lifting the ban, some strategic investors will choose a large transaction to trade to avoid irrational disturbances of market prices. Large amounts of funds can choose one -to -one consultation with the target customers, and conduct large transactions at the price recognized by both parties. It not only avoids the price, but also has certain discounts and benefits, which can achieve a win -win situation.

In addition, he also suggested that when investing in public offering REITs, he needs to pay attention to the following risk points: first, the quality of the underlying assets, this requires consideration from the industry, the specific location of the target, and the stability of cash flow stability; Even if the assets are good, the price is too high, the risk is still very high; the third is whether the future may be expanded. The expansion is the vitality of the public fund REITs. Occupying the initiative, especially the franchise project, the expansion of the funding is extended to the period of the public offer REITs, and the value is greater.

Hua'an Fund also reminds investors to pay close attention to the announcement of the release restriction arrangements disclosed by the fund manager before the release of the sales restriction to understand the relevant strategic investors' solution to share and circulation arrangement. Follow the trend to avoid investment losses from buying related REITs share at a high premium; on the other hand, investors are also recommended to clarify their own risk tolerance and product risk income characteristics, focus on the value of public offer REITs, based on rational analysis and judgment, and rationally evaluate REITs REITs Investment value, and establish a rational investment concept, pay attention to the long -term investment value of such products.

Hua'an Fund said that from the current stage, the public offer REITs products are still relatively scarce, and the support of policies facing market expansion, I believe that the future public offering REITs will still be an asset category that has attracted the attention of investors. The market is gradually mature, and it is believed that investors will gradually rationally view investment opportunities for public REITs.

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