Is the inflection point of the pig cycle?Experts analyze the increase in pig prices will become stable

Jimu Journalist Zhou Dan

Recently, a number of listed pig companies disclosed a briefing of pig sales in July. On the whole, the main listed pig companies raw pigs rose and fell in a month -on -month volume, and monthly sales and income rose significantly. Is this the inflection point of the pig cycle?

Some experts believe that the inflection point of the pig cycle has already come, but in July, pig companies reached the monthly profit and loss balance point. In addition, due to the lack of consumption in summer, the price of pork is suppressed to a certain extent. It is expected that after the consumption of pork in autumn and winter, the price of pork will rise, but the increase will gradually become stable.

Multiple pig companies' sales revenue and sales increase

Pork products sold by a supermarket in Wuhan

"A pound of a single roots is 36.8 yuan, and last month was 33.8 yuan." On August 27th, a supermarket near Wuhan's Ertou Bay, Jimu Journalists saw that some citizens chose the pork row while talking about the price.

"You can look at the ribs, 28.8 yuan per catty, and cheaper spine, a pound of 13.9 yuan." The salesperson sipped and led the customer to the lower price of pork ribs. "In fact, the price has not increased recently. Sometimes there will be slightly up, but there are many activities. For example, buying three middle rows at one time can be reduced by 3 yuan per catty. I always have to eat it.

On August 11, the Wuhan Investigation Team of the National Bureau of Statistics announced that in July 2022, the consumption prices of residents in Wuhan rose 2.8%year -on -year, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, the price of pork rose 16.1%.

In addition, many listed pig companies such as Muyuan, Wen's, Zhengbang, Aoon, Dabongnan, and Tangshen have recently released the sales data of pig pigs in July. On the whole, the main listed pig companies have risen Half, monthly sales and income rose significantly.

Taking Muyuan's shares as an example, in July 2022, the company sold 4.594 million pigs (including 569,000 piglets), an increase of 52.57%year -on -year. In terms of sales prices, the company's commercial pig prices in July showed a trend of shocks. The average sales price of commercial pigs was 21.33 yuan/kg, an increase of 29.04%over June 2022.

From the perspective of rough statistics, the sales revenue and sales of a number of pig companies have achieved more than 40%and more than 20%, respectively, and only the sales revenue and sales of Dabeongnong increased negatively. The sales revenue of Muyuan, the Tang Dynasty and Dongrui stocks doubled year -on -year, and Jinxinnong increased by about 70 % year -on -year.

Pork prices may rise in the third quarter

As a market phenomenon that is closely related to people's lives, people perceive the pig cycle, and it mainly manifested as the cycle fluctuations of pig prices.

Judging from the statistics of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Ministry, since 2000, the five -wheel pig cycle price fluctuations have experienced a strong regularity.

In a report, the chief expert of the pig industry monitoring and early warning of the pig industry monitoring and early warning of the Agricultural and Rural Ministry mentioned that the capacity cycle determines the price cycle. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Ministry, there is a strong negative relationship between the prices of pigs and lag 10 months after the current period of the sow. He judged that it is now rising in a new round of pig price cycle.

Obviously, the pig cycle is unavoidable. After the "Pig price falls -a large number of eliminated sows -decreased supply of pigs -rising pig prices -rising sow stocks -increased pig supply increase -pig prices fall" again and again In the cycle, the "heart" of pig companies has also been exercised.

According to industry insiders, this time, the reason why the pig cycle will cause pig prices to increase in the short term at the beginning of the new cycle, because the loss of pig companies has led to a decrease in the supply of pigs. From April to the present, the price of pigs has risen by 92 92 %. From the rise in pig prices in July, it can be speculated that pig prices may have further increase in the third quarter.

The increase in pig prices will gradually become stable

Such an upward trend has also brought a lot of stimuli to the market.

Pacific Securities Analyst Cheng Xiaodong said that pig prices rose clearly and maintained a "optimistic" rating. Pig prices have recently risen steadily, and it may be repeated in the short term. From the perspective of production capacity, pig prices are in a clear period, and the trend will last until the first quarter of 2023.

Jimu reporters found on the official website of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Ministry that according to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Ministry, as of 14:00 on August 26, the average price of pork in the national agricultural wholesale market was 29.13 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.9%from the 25th.

So, when will this round of pig cycle end?

Some people in the industry predict that the inflection point of pig companies has indeed arrived, but the price of pigs is still fluctuating. Under the contribution of the forces of all parties, the increase in pig prices will gradually become stable. By the beginning of next year, this round of pig cycle may come to an end.

"But we can see this round of pig cycle. In recent months, the sensitivity of pig production capacity adjustments in recent months is very high. Everyone has significantly improved the future expectations, predictions, and research skills of future." Wang Zuli, the chief expert and doctoral of the pig industry monitoring and early warning, said that the Chinese government has accurately and timely publishing data information about the pig industry, which will actively guide the market to adjust production capacity. In this context, when the market is self -adjusting, there is a more objective basis, which allows breeding companies to adjust the capacity and sensitively in time, thereby shortening the pig cycle.

(Photo by the picture by Ji Mu journalist Zhou Dan)

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