In the first half of the year, many financial indicators TOP5 liquor at the bottom, is Wuliangye incorrectly old?

This article is based on public information, which is used only as information exchange and does not constitute any investment advice.

Production/company research room wine industry group

Text/Huai Liangyue

In the past two days, the heads of the head of the head of the head of the head of the liquor company have been released. Judging from the financial data of these companies, the epidemic of astrological divergent in the first half of the year still has a great impact on liquor sales, and it brings a lot of pressure on the operation in the second half of the year. The company's research room selected several financial indicators of TOP5 liquor for comparative analysis to show the trajectory and quality of the business operation of the liquor industry in the first half of the year.

These TOP5 liquor companies are: Guizhou Maotai (600519.SH), Wuliangye (000858.SZ), Yanghe (002304.SZ), Shanxi Fenjiu (600809.SH), and Luzhou Laojiao (000568.SZ). Among them, Shanxi Fenjiu's revenue exceeded Luzhou Laojiao in the first half of the year, and it jumped to the fourth fifth and maintained a strong upward momentum. From a brand perspective, Mao Wuyan belongs to the first -line brand of liquor, Yanghe shares are old -fashioned brigades in the secondary high -end, and Shanxi Fenjiu belongs to the old tree and new flowers that have risen in recent years. The operation of the mainstream brand of liquor market.

01 Revenue year -on -year: Shanxi Fenjiu increased by 26.53%, and Wuliangye increased by 12.17%.

In the first quarter, in the Spring Festival of the New Year's Day, a number of liquor companies played high; the second quarter was the traditional off -season, and the impact of the epidemic, the pressure on the sales of each liquor company was great. Obviously not so beautiful.

The company's research room noticed that in terms of revenue scale, the order of TOP5 liquor from large to small in the first half of 2022 was: Guizhou Maotai, Wuliangye, Yanghe, Shanxi Fenjiu, Luzhou Laojiao. Compared with the 2021 annual report, Shanxi Fenjiu surpassed Luzhou Laojiao and jumped fourth in the fifth. In fact, this trend was reflected in the first quarter. At that time, Luzhou Laojiao revenue was 6.312 billion, and Shanxi Fenjiu was 10.53 billion. Compared with the 2021 interim report, TOP5 liquor revenue exceeded 10 billion in the first half of the year. Under the disturbance of the epidemic, the brand impact and comprehensive strength of the head of the head of the head of the head of the head of the head of the head was strongly displayed.

It is gratifying that TOP5 liquor revenue has maintained double -digit growth in the first half of the year. In comparison, Shanxi Fenjiu, Luzhou Laojiao, and Yanghe shares have increased by more than 20%year -on -year. Inside, although Shanxi Fenjiu ranked first, compared with the increase of 75.51%in the same period last year, the growth rate decreased significantly. In comparison, Yanghe's performance is relatively strong. Yanghe Co., Ltd. is in the East China epidemic area and has been greatly impacted. In the same period last year, it increased by 15.75%. In the first half of 2022, it increased by 21.65%year -on -year. Core employee equity incentives and marketing rewards and punishments have been effective.

It is worth noting that the revenue of Guizhou Moutai increased by 17.2%in the first half of the year, and only 11.15%in the same period last year. Under the huge amount of volume, it is difficult to perform such a performance. According to the company, the revenue of direct sales channels in the first half of 2022 was 20.95 billion, an increase of more than 120%year -on -year, and revenue accounted for 36.36%. Among them, the revenue of direct sales channels in the second quarter of 2022 was 10.06 billion yuan, a year -on -year increase of 5.3 billion (+112.9%), and the proportion of direct sales revenue increased from 22.66%in 2021 to 40%, including the contribution of e -commerce platforms such as I Moutai Essence

The weaker revenue growth was Wuliangye, which was only 12.17%year -on -year, while the same period last year was 19.45%. According to the company, the main affairs and Wuliang strong incense companies are to optimize the product structure, and the focus on mid -to -high -priced products will cause the decline in production and sales to a greater impact.

02 Cash flow and contract liabilities year -on -year: Luzhou Laojiao sales increased by 39.01%, Wuliangye contract liabilities fell 70%

Industry insiders told the company's research office that in addition to the scale of revenue and its growth rate, people in the circle value the quality of revenue, such as sales of goods and providing the cash received by labor services, which is related to how many real gold and silver are in hand, not one in one hand, not one one A large number of bills of receivables or accounts receivables; for example, the changes in contract liabilities and people in the circle know that the income of liquor companies has a strong adjustable agent. An important factor is the confirmation of contract liabilities, that is, pre -collection. This piece is like a funds of a liquor company, which can be adjusted according to the need to make the current financial statements look better.

Judging from the cash flow received by sales and providing labor services, in the TOP5 liquor, the year -on -year growth rate of Luzhou Laojiao was as high as 39.01%in the first half of 2022. Fen Jiu and Guizhou Maotai followed closely. In contrast, Wuliangye and Yanghe shares have not performed well in this item, Wuliangye fell 12.89%year -on -year, and Yanghe shares fell 12.73%. Among them, the net cash flow generated by Wuliangye's operating activities in the first half of the year decreased by 78.33%year -on -year to 1.887 billion yuan. During the same period, Wuliangye's bills receivables further increased, an increase of 1.39 billion yuan to 25.249 billion yuan from the beginning of the year, and 7 billion yuan from the same period in 2021.

In Wuliangye reported that due to the impact of the epidemic, the company reduced the pressure of dealers' funds by reducing the proportion of cash collection in the pre -collection deposit and optimizing order plan management, leading to a reduction in cash received by the sale goods. At the same time, the base was high in the same period last year, and the two reasons caused cash flow to shrink.

In terms of contract liabilities, among the TOP5 liquor companies, Luzhou Laojiao increased by 65.44%year -on -year, Shanxi Fenjiu increased by 48.66 %%, Yanghe's shares increased by 43.35%, Guizhou Maotai increased by 4.59%, only Wuliangye declined year -on -year, and the decline was as high as 70.35%. The company's research office noticed that the liabilities of Wuliangye contract decreased by about 11.1 billion yuan in the first half of the year, about 85%from the beginning of the year. This means that as of June 30, 2022, Wuliangye's sales performance at the end of last year had overdrawn more than 80 %. The performance in the second half of the year depends to a large extent on the completion of the channel side. This undoubtedly increased the company's operating pressure in the second half of the year.

Guohai Securities (000750.SZ) research report believes that, overall, the quality of the report of Wuliangye has fallen, and the sales of sales in the first half of the year fell 13%year -on -year; ; The receivable loop fell by 3 billion yuan than.

03 Net profit and gross profit margin: Wuliangye's net profit increases at the bottom of 14.38%, and the gross profit margin of Yanghe shares is 73.94%.

From the perspective of net profit, TOP5 liquor performance is good. Among them, Shanxi Fenjiu has maintained a rising momentum for nearly two years. In the first half of 2022, net profit was 5013 billion, an increase of 41.46%year -on -year; Luzhou Laojiao followed closely, an increase of 30.89%year -on -year. The company's research office found that only the year -on -year growth rate of Wuliangye was lower than 20%in this financial indicator. It is worth noting that in the same period of 2021, the net profit of Wuliangye was 21.6%year -on -year, which was higher than 14.38%this year. This is also the only one among the five head liquor, which has declined in the year -on -year growth of net profit.

In addition to net profit, people in the circle value the gross profit margin of each liquor company. Because of the performance of gross profit margins, the sales of different grades in the company's revenue structure are often reflected. At the moment when the sales of the entire industry are concentrated to the mid -to -high -end concentration, this is more important. The interim report shows that in the TOP5 liquor company, only the gross profit margin of Yanghe shares in the first half of the year declined compared with the same period of 2021.

As for the reasons for the increase in gross profit margin, many companies explained that the reason is to optimize the market layout and improve the product structure. For example, Shanxi Fenjiu said that the development of the blue and white Fen wine circle and channel expansion, increased consumer cultivation efforts, the blue and white series of products achieved sales revenue of 6.1 billion yuan, an increase of 56%year -on -year, and the proportion of mid -to -high -end products continued to increase.

According to the research report of Shengang Securities, the increase in the gross profit margin of Moutai 22H1 in Guizhou mainly comes from the optimization of the series of wine structures (such as the increase in sales volume of Moutai 1935) and the increase in the proportion of direct sales. Although the sales cost rate increased slightly by 0.52 PCT year -on -year, the worship/net profit margin of hair sales increased by 0.25pct/0.57pct year -on -year, respectively. As for the rising gross profit margin of Wuliangye, Anxin Securities believes that Wuliangye's main brand volume, series of wine slimming, and the overall structure continues to be optimized; Southwest Securities (600369.SH) said that thanks to the increase in comprehensive tonal prices, the gross profit margin of Wuliangye's wine business increased 1.5 percentage points to 81.9%, and the profitability was further enhanced.

More puzzling is the decline of Yanghe's gross profit margin. According to the financial report, in the first half of 2022, Yanghe's high -end wine and ordinary wine achieved revenue of 16.2 billion yuan and 2.318 billion yuan, respectively. Among them, mid -to -high -end wine revenue increased by 29.05%year -on -year. In this case, why not rises and fall into the gross profit margin?

Everbright Securities (601788.SH) stated that Yanghe's 22Q2 gross profit margin was 66.51%, a year -on -year decrease of 4.31pct, 22H1 mid -to -high -end wine/ordinary wine gross margin profit margin 79.52%/43.24%, a year -on -year decrease of 2.46/1.12PCT. The decline in gross profit margin is related to the higher increase of materials and labor costs. 22H1 Baijiu Direct Material/Direct labor cost increases by 24.8%/31.6%year -on -year. The Q2 Dream series may be disturbed by the epidemic. Structural changes also have a phased effect on gross profit margin.

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