Internal and external factors are superimposed, investment emotions are suppressed, and A shares will still maintain the interval vibration pattern

Extreme news reporter Xu Wei

The market has continued to fall in the past week, especially on Wednesday's rapid decline. Some markets have been attributed to the internal expressions of Huawei Ren Zhengfei about the internal business of shrinking edge business. Some investors believe that the interim performance of the "Mao" interim performance of some industries drags the stock index. Why does A -share fate fall? Is the market style switching? Jimu Journalists interviewed professionals provided some analysis suggestions.

A shares or continue the shock market

Recently, A -shares have continued to fluctuate at 3,200 to 3300 points, and the differentiation has been obvious, and the overall money -making effect is insufficient. On August 24th, due to the sharp decline in A shares, the hot search fell. As of the close of the day, the GEM finger fell 3.64%. The two cities were full of 4,324 stocks, and only 417 stocks became popular.

On August 24th, the GEM finger fell 3.64%(screenshot of the Big Smart APP)

For the cause of the decline, some people blamed Ren Zhengfei's speech, but more analysts pointed out that this "pot" cannot let individuals back. Dong Dengxin, director of the Institute of Finance and Securities of Wuhan University of Science and Technology, said in an interview with a reporter, "This has little to do with the speech of the President Ren. He made a deployment arrangement from the company's strategic plan. High temperature drought, flooding, power -lacking and electricity limit, Hainan Tibet epidemic and external surrounding situations are superimposed to suppress the emotions of A -share investors. "

Jufeng Investment Consulting also pointed out that the interim reported market is ended, and the market will quickly repair the valuation. The company that exceeds expectations is still attractive, and the concept of pure theme concepts will be easily disturbed by emotional disturbances and rapidly retreat.

Regarding the market outlook, industry institutions generally stated that the market will continue to fluctuate under the game of stock funds.

Zhongyuan Securities believes that the average price -earnings ratio of the current Shanghai Composite Index and the GEM Index is 13.18 times and 41.78 times, respectively, at a medium level of the past three years. The gentle trend of CPI does not change, but it may be within the scope of policy tolerance. In the future, the stock index is generally expected to continue to shock up, and at the same time, it still needs to pay close attention to changes in policy, capital, and external factors.

Bohai Securities said that in addition to the pressure on the final stage of the performance, the changes in the exchange rate also brought the fluctuations of funds in the north, and the market was restrained by negative factors in the short term, and it was difficult to break through. From the mid -term perspective, although the reversal of fundamentals will not happen overnight, it will eventually get closer. Therefore, under the support of the fundamentals, the market is expected to break through the existing platform. It is recommended that investors pay attention to the re -configuration opportunity before the expected reversal.

Market style switching has no conclusion

The reporter noticed that recently the style of the A -share market has changed. The heat of the cycle sector headed by coal, oil, gas, and electricity has continued to heat up, and new energy sectors headed by photovoltaic, energy storage, and lithium batteries have gradually "turned off". The automotive industry chain chain Also collectively fall.

However, according to reporters' observations, there are obvious differences in the market for whether the current market style is being switched. Some institutions believe that the market has opened switching, the track is cut from overestima to low valuations, and the industry is cut from popular to unpopular. However, some agencies believe that the style is difficult to switch, but the growth of growth will be differentiated, the lack of fundamental stocks with fundamental surfaces, and new growth with profit support will continue.

For example, Minsheng Securities shouted decisively, "Don't hesitate, switch quickly." The agency believes that at present, the shortage of Chinese and foreign energy has led to the exit of large production capacity of industrial metals and chemical products, but some varieties of invent The main line, the road of the cycle re -pricing has begun.

Another securities firm believes that although short -term track stocks have been adjusted, the style that has continued for months will not switch overnight. The latest opinion of the Yangtze Securities Strategy Team stated that the current state of macro and structural differentiation is similar to the fourth quarter of 2015, and it is difficult to switch between short -term style. Judging from the indicators of various transaction levels, the current small -cap stocks have not reached the overheating situation, which is roughly at 70%of the emotional temperature of history and a valuation level of 15%. Although the current market value stocks represented by the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 have been included in strong pessimistic expectations, and their emotions are bottomed out, the odds of balanced style are worthy of attention, but the reversal needs to be catalyzed, and the data stabilization or policy expectations must be one of them.

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