Five CPIC forward -looking PMI in August: It is expected to rise slightly from the previous month

According to the National Bureau of Statistics' work arrangements, this Wednesday will be released in August China Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (PMI). "Securities Daily" reporter interviewed five chief economists or analysts. Most of them believed that under the influence of repeatedly superimposed on the epidemic, the manufacturing PMI in August will rise slightly compared to July, but it is still lower than the Rongku Line Essence

Economic fundamentals are expected to accelerate repair

Zhao Wei, chief economist of Guojin Securities, predicts that due to the continuous high temperature weather, the manufacturing PMI index will be around 49.5%in August.

The chief economist of CITIC Securities clearly analyzed that since August, high -frequency economic data such as blast furnace operating rates and oil asphalt devices operating rates has been repaired, but the overall improvement is not large. Under the influence of the end of the epidemic, superimposed on extreme weather such as high temperature and drought, or dragging down the recovery of the production side, it is expected that the power limit production and limit industrial value -added is 1 percentage point to 2 percentage points. %the following. In the future, as special debt accelerates the formation of physical work, infrastructure investment has further developed, and the economic fundamentals are expected to accelerate the restoration.

"It is expected that the manufacturing PMI index will be around 49.2%in August, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month." Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Dongfang Jincheng, told reporters that in addition to high temperature and orderly power supply, the pmi rebate of the manufacturing PMI in August caused the rebound of PMI in August In addition to the influence, the central bank's interest rate reduction in August, and the further efforts of macro policies in the direction of steady growth, and also boosted the market demand and market entity operations.

Wang Qing further analyzed that from the point of view of the sub -item indicators, the orderly power supply in some areas has a greater impact on the production index, and the new order index is expected to rise. In August The interval (52%last month), pointing to the later manufacturing PMI index will gradually recover and return to the expansion range.

Pang Yan, chief economist and director of the research department of the Digang Langlian Federation, predicts that in August, the manufacturing production index, new order index and manufacturing PMI will be around the Rongku Line. With the effectiveness of the preliminary policy support, it is expected that the production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises will continue to expand in the next few months, and the pace is expected to advance steadily. We should continue to make up for the lack of social needs and effectively enhance the endogenous power of the market entity as the policy foothold and focus.

Yang Delong, Chief Economist of Qianhai Open Source, believes that in August, PMI may return above 50%and stand above the critical point. On the one hand, the National Frequently deployed 33 stability of the economy on May 23 to promote economic recovery. On the other hand, most regions in my country have been effectively preventing and controlled, and the factors of exceeding the expected factors are decreasing.

There is still room for power to stabilize the growth combination.

Wang Qing said that under the recent decline in international commodity prices and increased domestic supply and stable prices, the two price score indexes in the PMI index in the manufacturing industry in August will be in a deep contraction range, which means The price of prices is still declined from the previous month. This will drive the downward trend of PPI in August, and the cost pressure problem of continuous trouble in the early stage of continuous trouble is alleviating. This will be a positive factor that domestic prices are expected to maintain stability as a whole in the second half of the year, and provide greater space for the flexible adjustment of macro policies.

It is worth noting that on August 24th, the State Association deployed the continuation policy and measures for the stability of the economy. On the basis of the first 33 measures, 19 continuation policies were deployed. Economic data in July showed that stable growth was still under pressure. The policy stated that the policy continued to support economic recovery, which is expected to form a combined effect.

Specifically, the 19 incremental policies are mainly promoting infrastructure, and the overall range is milder. It mainly includes: increased the amount of policy development financial instruments of more than 300 billion yuan, and used more than 500 billion yuan in special debt deposit limit in accordance with the law. Apply for a batch of infrastructure and other projects. The project must be effective, ensure the quality, and prevent the misappropriation of funds. Allow local "one city, one policy" to use credit policies such as credit to reasonably support rigid and improved housing needs. Support Central Power Generation Enterprise to issue 200 billion yuan of bonds, and then issue 10 billion yuan of agricultural subsidies.

Obviously, the central bank's interest rate cuts in August have demonstrated the government's steady attitude. The probability of interest rate cuts is the first step in the policy portfolio. In the future, the policy side may be exerted from two aspects: on the one hand, supporting related policies, hurry up to implement the country's good country. 19 stable economic policies that are often deployed; on the other hand, real estate policies and fiscal policies may have room for further effort. In terms of real estate, the market policy under the main base of the rescue and stable property market may have further actions, and the interest rate of mortgage loan still has room to reduce. In terms of fiscal policy, on the basis of the use of more than 500 billion yuan of special debt deposit limit, it is not ruled out that the possibility of adjusting fiscal budgets and increasing special debt during the year.

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