Compared to 2020, I am more optimistic about the Chinese economy

Some people see the treatment of the disease, and some people only see the injury.

Author ｜ Bi Yajun

There will be pain to solve the problem.

Pain often can't help but even want to solve the problem anymore. But if the problem is not solved, it will be a bigger problem for tomorrow.

[Real estate adjustment favorable long -term development]

After the real estate companies continue to thunder, after the real estate market continues to freeze, some sounds have begun to question real estate regulation, including micro -words to the three red lines, and even think that these have broken the economy.

I think this is wrong.

If you have to say the problem of the three red lines, it is too late. If you are determined earlier, for example, the Sino -US dispute has been determined before, and the accumulated problems will not be so big, and the space and room to solve the problem will be greater.

Before the three red lines, how many alarm clocks were knocked on the risk of real estate and how many jobs did it? As a result, most developers do not see the coffin without tears.

If there is no three red lines, to what extent will Evergrande and so on, and how big do you create in the future?

Needless to say, the damage of real estate over the economic sustainable development is obviously favorable for the long -term development of the economy. Even thunderbolt is a bigger thunder for the future.

【Internet compliance and profit good long -term development】

The strong supervision of Internet platforms and online education is also a core cause of economic fluctuations and negative expectations.

But is the supervision wrong? From a large direction and long -term perspective, this is definitely necessary to do, and it is time to do.

At the same time, this is also conducive to Internet technology companies itself, but also for long -term economic development.

The first is conducive to Internet technology companies itself.

In the past two years, when everyone talks about the word disorderly expansion of capital, it will always look at the problem from the level of non -business and non -operating, but in fact, it is first of all a business and business issue.

Internet technology is not a god. It must be based on economic reality, and it is necessary to talk about cost benefits, core capabilities and value creation.

However, the kind of crazy burning money expansion of the Internet in the past few years and constantly rolling the real economy. Even if the country does not care, can it go on and go out of a good future?

Can't go. The money of Internet technology is not from the sky, and it is always considered an economic benefit.

In the past two years, many Internet thunderstorms and closures, including giant companies, have also lost their business and lay off their business. The big reason is also caused by the business problem itself, not others. Without supervision, their business cannot be done.

However, before the national supervision, many Internet companies, including the capital behind the capital, knew about the problems, still killed red eyes, desperately expanded, from shared bicycles to community group purchases to online education. Essence If it is expanded, it will eventually give the enterprise itself and accumulate greater risks.

From a social perspective, the Internet has attacked traditional industries, even public undertakings, and continues to burn money. Even whoever wins the capital, whoever wins the path of wealth creation and distribution of the entire market does affect the entire market. In economic innovation and fairness, it is urgent to reverse.

The Internet platform is not a problem. What is a problem with it? Under the wave of digital economy, making Internet technology companies a healthier development is obviously good for the long -term future of the entire economy.

[Strengthen the long -term science and technology and manufacture]

It is not necessary to say the importance of scientific and technological innovation and manufacturing. It is worth saying that we still have a lot of deficiencies in this regard.

Taking scientific and technological innovation as an example, Huawei is recognized as a benchmark, but if rationality is rational, Huawei does not actually have such scientific and technological innovation in world technology companies. In addition to attacking the top of the world in the field of communication, it has really mastered the core technology. In other areas, it is not an exaggeration to say that Huawei is innovative improvement and innovation.

In terms of manufacturing, we are the world's first major manufacturing country, but not a power, this is what everyone knows. But there is a embarrassment, most people do not necessarily know: our mainland manufacturing industry is actually a bit weaker than the Chinese manufacturing industry we usually talk about.

For example, our large exports and advanced manufacturing industries are a considerable part of foreign companies. In the top 20 trading export companies in the mainland, more than half of the year are foreign capital.

In the past few years, real estate and Internet siphons have developed scientific and technological innovation and manufacturing, and this situation is now reversed. More and more hardcore technology has become a new 100 billion, even trillions, is a good sign.

Scientific and technological innovation and manufacturing power are still far away, but now the climate is much better than before 2020, which is of course helping the economy for a long time.

[Enhance risk awareness and good long -term]

If you ask me before 2020, what is the biggest risk of China's economy? My answer may be:

Everyone seems to have forgotten the risk.

One of my deep feelings in these years is that our entrepreneurs, including officials and people, have insufficient knowledge and consciousness in the laws and risks of economic development.

Taking entrepreneurs as an example, most of the attacks on opportunities are too much to prevent risks. Many large enterprises, even the courage to break through the law and moral bottom line repeatedly.

All kinds of financial management mines are due to the lack of social risk awareness and knowledge. This is also related to our environment. In the past few decades, we basically have not encountered too much economic challenges. We have also been resolved by the government's strong measures and institutional advantages.

But the long -term development of the economy cannot be smooth sailing. For example, I have encountered the biggest challenge for decades. And this challenge is relatively large, and it is difficult for us to adapt. To a large extent, it is because we have insufficient prevention of risks, and we are used to having a high growth of the economy. Therefore, now, from the company to the public, although it is very painful, it is also a valuable risk lesson and conducted a training for a bitter life.

High -quality development is based on rationality, and the strengthening of risk awareness is also beneficial to future economic development.

Another big factor that makes me more optimistic about the future is to strengthen common prosperity. To be honest, this is actually one of the most important factor. I have also wrote a manuscript "Common Wealth is Not just Tao Choosing Title".

Common wealth is the key niche that expands sustainable space.

One person has 100 billion yuan, which is 100 billion yuan, with a number of billions, millions, and millionaires. The total amount of wealth is not different. It must be more than one person in social production and consumption. One person, his consumption to a certain extent, that's it, and replaced by several people, the effect is very different. Production is the same reason.

Everyone may see that these optimism seems to come from some of the more pessimistic things from many friends.

Is such that.

why?

Because I was more pessimistic and worried before 2020 that real estate and the Internet continued to expand barbaric expansion. It was the lag of scientific and technological innovation and manufacturing. Now these problems are solved, so I am more optimistic.

I believe that before 2020, many people are worried about these issues and look forward to the country's strong solution to the problem.

But there will be pain when solving problems. Pain often can't help but even want to solve the problem anymore. But if the problem is not solved, it will be a bigger problem for tomorrow.

Many things are two sides of pros and cons. It depends on what vision you use to see and see what position you are standing. On a knife, some people saw the treatment of the disease and the injury, and some people only saw the injury.

Some adjustments in the past two years are precisely treatment of economic treatment. It will have pain, but it is necessary for economic transformation and upgrading, and it is already urgent to do.

The problem must be painful, especially our big economy. But for our large economy, it is even more painful not to solve the problem.

If we are still in a few real estate companies, we can borrow a few percentage of money equivalent to the national GDP; we can still be "innovated" by education and even charities, and then valued at 10 billion and 100 billion yuan. Big problem.

Therefore, it is not a pessimistic now, but to tighten the teeth, firm confidence, and transform and upgrade. Only in this way can we successfully transform and upgrade; as long as we do this, we will be able to successfully transform and upgrade.

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Welcome to pay attention to [Huashang Tao strategies], know the characters of the wind, and read the legend of Tao Tao.

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