Will the market style switch?how to respond?——Doda Dialogue Dr. Niu Niu

Source: WeChat public account "Daida" (WeChat public account ID: daoda1997)

This week, A -share is a trend of adjustment. Four days in the five trading days have fallen. With the market adjustment, funds show the characteristics of avoiding high and low.

Compared with the previous period, the leading sector has changed significantly compared with the early stage, and the growth track has fallen sharply. Some sectors that have not received much attention recently have begun to strengthen. Even if energy stocks, shipping stocks, etc. have performed strongly this week, the continuity is relatively average.

How to look at this situation? Can market style switch continue? How long does it take to adjust? Which sections can find opportunities during adjustment? Today, Dr. Niu and Dago discussed the topics that everyone cared about.

Dr. Niu: Hello, the market is too difficult this week, and the prosperity track adjustment is just the same. After all, the front rises much, but if you want to switch to chase other sectors, the continuity is very poor, it feels like now The market environment is not so good. I don't know how long the adjustment will last?

Da Ge: On Wednesday, the three major A -share indexes have been adjusted sharply. Since then, the two trading days have given the overall experience in the market. This kind of weakness is not only reflected in the number of rises and falls of individual stocks, but also on the short -term strong stocks. The previous trading day also rose sharply, and it was eaten the next day. On the list. Faced with such a market environment, it is necessary to reduce the frequency of transaction and avoid pursuit.

But do you want to have risks continuously in the market? I am afraid it won't. The weak recovery of the short -term economic fundamentals is indeed pressured by the performance of the listed company, but the looseness of liquidity means that A shares are difficult to adjust and the game of market stock funds is still structural. Smoral grinding people are the main.

If you look at the market adjustment in a longer cycle, this is not a risk, but it means that the opportunity is coming. Therefore, it is even more necessary to protect the funds. Do n’t easily deal with heavy positions. You can wait for the market to make a direction choice before following. This is always the lowest cost transaction method.

Let's talk about the short -term market. The adjustment of A shares on Friday is a manifestation of the caution of the listed company's semi -annual report in the face of the listed company. Considering that there are two trading days for the semi -annual report announcement, the market's volatile adjustment and directional pattern will be clearly clearer with the clearness of the semi -annual report.

On Friday, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index tried to continue to repair the lost land, but eventually rushed to fall; this structure, generally, may have the kinetic energy that continues to rush in the future. Considering the impact of the sharp adjustment of the peripheral market and the decline in the A50 phase index, the probability of the opening of A shares will be low tomorrow. Combined with the weight index of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, even if there is a short -term low, it is already in a state of departure. Continue to fall and difficulties, there may be a bottom -up rising trend next week.

As for the influence of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes with a lot of market discussions on the weekend, it can be referred to the performance of A shares since April. The decline in the peripheral market can be regarded as an advance expectation of the Fed's 75 basis points, and the impact of interest rate hikes on the funds of the north is short -term. This news does not have to worry too much.

Dr. Niu: Da Ge, we chatted last week that the style switching you mentioned was verified this week. So is this style switching temporary or medium and long -term? What do you need to pay attention to when choosing a section?

Daida: From the perspective of the market this week, traditional blue chips really goes stronger than growth track stocks. This kind of funds avoid high, which is more in line with expectations. However, the current switching can only be regarded as the initial stage. It is a manifestation of the avoidance of risks when facing uncertainty.

And under the background of economic weak recovery and liquidity, small and medium -sized growth stocks are obviously more opportunities. From the perspective of the CSI 1000 Index and the National Securities 2000 Index, the short -term departure is indeed the top stage, but in the overall trend, it is only a very normal pull back to the box shock structure. As long as this structure is not destroyed, there is a chance to continue to brew the impulse.

On the other hand, the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index, which represents the weight of the weight of the weight, is indeed a bottom -seeing signs in the short term. The pressure is not small, you can only see the repair market for the time being.

Therefore, at present, the rotation between this "28" is just short -term, and it is clearly said on Thursday. So, does this rotation mean that the growth track has ushered in opportunities? The answer is, not. There is indeed a chance, but the prosperity track is unlikely to have an overall opportunity. After the semi -annual report, the institution also faces choices. The semi -annual report performance can be said to be a survival of the fittest.

The wave of views of the Voyage Circuit is a V -type reversal market. This trend is generally unlikely to go back again. It is more to expand a large -class box shock in the key support level. In the process of this box shock, the structural market will be very obvious, which tests the investor's stock selection ability. As for the short -term opportunities of the prosperity track, take the 15 -minute level of power equipment as an example. After the shocking on Thursday and Friday, it will be explored. After a decline in failure, it can be said that there is a short -term bottom -up opportunity.

The structural opportunities of the high booming track means that the capital will be diverted to other sectors, which will bring opportunities to other sectors. From the perspective of this week, port shipping performed relatively, and it is currently in the process of recovery after breaking through the box; if it can stop and confirm the key support position, it can be used as an opportunity. There are also changes, as well as food safety or planting and forestry sectors. This sector is a large box shock from the weekly line. Once this structure is emitted, the explosiveness is good. However, at present, this sector is not strong as a whole. It is not as good as port shipping and traditional energy stocks. It also needs to wait for the callback.

As for traditional energy, the natural gas sector is mainly affected by European prices, and domestic natural gas prices have little effect. This pulse market is not involved. The coal has gone in the mid -to -long trend. Da Ge observed it. After each wave of coal sector index rose by 20%to 30%, adjustments will be adjusted. At present, the sector index coincides with the front high, and it is difficult to say opportunities.

These sectors mentioned by Dago are observed from my own perspective. As for whether the market fund will recognize my point of view, no one knows. We have our own subjective prediction, but in the final analysis, we still have to respect the choice of the market, or the saying: the cost of following the market is always the lowest.

Dr. Niu: There are several important news on the weekend: the National Bureau of Statistics announced the data of the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in the first seven months, and the Fed's chairman Powell released a very eagle statement. How do you view these news?

Daida: The National Bureau of Statistics announced the latest data of industrial enterprises above designated size. Among them, in July, the profit of the automobile manufacturing industry increased by 77.8%year -on -year, and the growth rate accelerated by 30.1 percentage points from June. It is one of the fastest -growing industries. Railway ships and other transportation equipment and electrical machinery industries have achieved rapid growth. However, from January to July, the total profit realized by industrial enterprises above designated size decreased year-on-year. This data may have a favorable impact on the stock market.

From a structural point of view, the upstream and downstream profit squeezing continues to ease, most of the upstream industry prosperity fell, and the prosperity of midstream equipment manufacturing has improved.

Powell made a very eagle statement on Friday. U.S. stocks plummeted. There are three points in summary: the priority of American inflation is higher than employment. Unless inflation falls significantly, it will not consider interest rate cuts.

Among them, the biggest impact is the first point, which shows that the Fed will not change the goal because of the decline in economy or employment. Furating inflation is the most important task. The result is likely to lead to insufficient demand and trigger recession. This is the most concerned about the market.

In comparison, the situation in Europe is even worse. According to media reports, electricity prices such as France and Germany have risen sharply, and energy is very tense. High European electricity prices affect industries such as fertilizers, chemicals and vitamins, and facilitate food and related products.

As mentioned earlier, style switching, no matter which direction of the subsequent market style, will not be completed between night, which means that the short -term market will still have a high probability of continuing rotation and repeated trends between various sectors. Therefore, before the market's risk is fully released and the new style is established, the control of the position is still selected.

(Zhang Daoda)

According to the latest regulations of relevant national departments, this note does not involve any operating suggestions, and the risk of entering the market should be borne.

Daily Economic News

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