Lu Ming, a special professor of Shanghai Jiaotong University: The current problem is not the over -concentration of economic, but insufficient population concentration

On August 27, the Shenzhen Industry Research Institute of Shanghai Jiaotong University was formally established. At the "China (Shenzhen) Industry Development Summit Forum" held on the same day, Lu Ming, a special professor of the School of Economics and Management of Shanghai Jiaotong University, and the Yangtze River scholar of the Ministry of Education, Lu Ming, delivered a speech on the trend of the flow of population in China. He said that there are three directions of the current population of China's urban population: one is from rural to cities, the other is from small cities to large cities, and the third is flowing from the periphery of large cities to the central city.

Lu Ming proposed that China is undergoing a big change in the economic and population space. At present, the real problem is not that the economic concentration is excessive, but the population is not enough. "Whether it is the radiation driving role of the central city, or the strong union of the city's metropolitan area, the population density is not necessarily the root cause of urban governance issues, but it may be the way out of urban problems such as congestion, high housing prices, pollution, and lack of resources "Lu Ming said.

Lu Ming picture source: the organizer confession

Three directions of the current urban population flow

At the forum, Lu Ming used the large data of the traffic to present the layout of domestic urban agglomerations and central cities, and said that the Chinese economy had a pattern of heating, and the central city had a strong radiation driving effect.

What kind of flowing trend does the population appear when the economy is gathered? Lu Ming quoted the census data that in the ten years from 2010 to 2020, areas where population is growing is either in coastal areas, or surrounded by large cities in the central and western regions (especially the provincial capital); In the northeast region, the population increased by 10 million in the past ten years. Only Changchun, Shenyang, and Dalian's population were positive.

Lu Ming pointed out that there are three directions of the current population of China's urban population: one is from rural to cities, the other is from small cities to large cities, and the third is to flow from the periphery of large cities to the central city. At the same time, it is said that in the place where the population flows too much, there will also be multiple problems such as uneven public services, pollution, congestion, and management.

"The development of the city has the three major goals of vitality, harmony, and livability. Shanghai proposed in the 2035 plan that to establish an innovative city, city of ecology, and humanities, vitality is innovation, and livable is to establish an ecological livable ecology. The foundation, harmony is to ask this city to cancel the differentiated treatment of people due to institutional factors. "Lu Ming said that due to the more vitality of economic agglomeration areas, the indicators of harmony and livability have been achieved. The direction will continue in the next two decades or even longer.

Not the economic concentration, but that the population is not enough

Recently, Lu Ming officially published the book "Xiangxin City". In the book, Lu Ming discussed the big change of economic and population in history: the first time in the Tang and Song dynasties, the economic center of gravity moved south; The second occurred in the Ming Dynasty's capital moved Beijing, forming a economic pattern centered on Beijing, which has continued to the planned economic period of New China; since the mid -1990s, the southeast coastal areas have re -emerged. China is now living in China. In the third space pattern.

At the forum, Lu Ming said that the real problem in China is not economic over -concentration, but insufficient population concentration. Chinese cities are in the stage of post -industrialization, and the service industry is getting higher and higher in the proportion of GDP. A large number of service industries require people to communicate face -to -face, and at the same time produce production and consumption. "The central urban area has a location advantage that is convenient for people in all areas of the city to meet and meet, which also drives the population to concentrate on the central urban area."

Lu Ming believes that China's population is not enough compared to developed countries. "Many people think that the high concentration of the population is not good, but the people vote with their feet. We must have historical patience, to achieve a state of concentration in the population of developed countries. achieve."

"For the problem of congestion in big cities, we still think that it is caused by the high density of the population. The solution is to evacuate the population of the central urban area. In fact, when a city enters the stage of industrialization, the more the population of the central urban area is, the more likely it will lead to the more likely to cause the population of the central urban area, the more likely it will lead to the more likely to cause the population of the city. More serious congestion, and it will lead to a decline in vitality in the central urban area. Economic development is gone, and the functions of the later industrialized cities are also contrary to each other. "Lu Ming said.

Daily Economic News

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