Duck neck is not fragrant?The performance of the three giants of the fulcus is collectively "stalling", and the heroes are "halogen" to find the second growth curve

The three giants have successively touched the ceiling of operating growth!

Zhou Heiya, known as the "Duck King", was the first to release the semi -annual report in 2022, and the net profit attributable to the mother fell by 92%. Coincidentally, it is expected that the highest net profit returned to the mother's net profit in the first half of 2022 decreased by more than 82%in the first half of 2022. Although the other head of Lifei brand Huang Shanghuang did not release the semi -annual report, from the data released in the first quarter, the above -mentioned data was on the first quarter. The high probability of performance will not be too ideal. The first quarterly report showed that the net profit of Huang Shanghuang's return to his mother during the same period fell 45.57%year -on -year.

Corresponding to the performance, the stock price of the Radi Three also fell collectively during the year. As of August 25, the stock prices of Zhou Hei duck, Juewei Food, and Huang Shanghuang fell more than 30%over the year. At present, Zhou Heiya's market value is hovering at HK $ 9.1 billion, compared with HK $ 20 billion in the early days of listing, it has been cut; the market value of unique food is 28.1 billion yuan, which has also fallen by more than half compared with the market value of over 60 billion yuan last year. ; Huang Shanghuang's latest market value is HK $ 5.7 billion, down 60%from the peak of the market value.

Chinese food industry analyst Zhu Danpeng told reporters that the growth space of duck goods products in the fully industry is limited. Factors such as rising costs for overall supply chain, repeated epidemic and consumption fatigue have led to a lower gross profit margin.

Net profit has shrunk sharply

Mo -margin collective decline

Recently, "Why don't young people like to eat duck necks" appeared on Weibo hot search. Although the topic is somewhat partial, it is an indisputable fact that Zhou Hei duck and unparalleled food giants fall into the operating growth dilemma. Behind the collective stall of performance, the "duck neck" is indeed not as good as before.

On August 23, Zhou Heiya disclosed the performance report in the first half of the year that the revenue in the first half of the year was 1.181 billion yuan, a year -on -year decrease of 18.7%; the net profit attributable to the mother was 18.377 million yuan, a significant decrease of 92%year -on -year. After three consecutive years in a row, Zhou Heiya, which finally achieved revenue and profits last year, suffered a heavy frustration in the first half of this year.

From the perspective of stretching, Zhou Heiya's operation encountered "Waterloo". According to statistics from reporters, from 2018 to 2020, Zhou Heiya's revenue was 3.212 billion yuan, 3.186 billion yuan and 2.182 billion yuan, respectively, a year -on -year decrease of 1.15%, 0.79%, and 31.53%; net profit was 540 million yuan, 407 million yuan, respectively. And 151 million yuan, a year -on -year decrease of 29.09%, 24.56%, and 62.90%. Although revenue and net profit in 2021 are growing upward, under the sharp decline in revenue and performance in the first half of this year, it may be difficult to achieve positive growth in the whole year of 2022.

The unique food that has absolute advantages in revenue is also difficult to escape the dilemma of "increasing income and revenue". Juewei Food released the semi -annual performance trailer for 2022 shows that it is expected to achieve 3.2 billion yuan to 3.4 billion yuan in operating income in the first half of the year, which is 1.78%to 8.14%year -on -year from 3.144 billion yuan in the same period last year; The net profit was 90 million to 110 million yuan, a decrease of 78.08%to 82.07%from the same period last year.

From the perspective of the number of stores, the total number of domestic foods reached 13,714 in 2021, with a net increase of 1,315 throughout the year, and the speed of stores and store opening at the top of the list was topped; Zhou Hei duck had a net increase of 1026 to 2,781 retail stores in 2021. At the end of December 2021, Huang Shanghuang's meat product processing industry had 4,281 specialty stores, of which 307 Zhiying stores and 3974 franchise stores. The number of stores decreased by 346 compared with 4,627 in 2020.

The plunge of the net profit of the three giants of the provider is related to the continuous decline. From 2017 to 2021, the gross profit margin of unique food was 35.8%, 34.3%, 33.9%, 33.5%, and 31.7%; during the same period, Huang Shanghuang's gross profit margin was 34.66%, 34.47%, 37.59%, 37.80%, and 37.80%, and 37.80%and 37.80%and 37.80%and 37.80%and 37.80%and 37.80%. 33%. Although the Zhou Hei Duck Hair interest rate on the high -end line of self -operated operations is better than the previous two, 60.93%, 57.53%, 56.54%, 55.47%, and 57.78%, the overall decline is also. 3 percentage points.

The three giants of the Lifei attributed the "culprit" of the decline in the first half of the year on the influence of rising raw materials and epidemic conditions. For example, Juewei Foods said mainly because some factories and stores during the epidemic suspended production and business, coupled with rising raw material costs, rising sales costs, and subsidies for franchisees, the profit decreased year -on -year. Zhou Heiya explained that this was mainly due to the repeated domestic new crown epidemic, and the decrease in people's decreases caused the store's passenger flow to decrease significantly, and the logistics distribution was limited. At the same time, due to the rise in raw material prices, the pressure on the cost end in the first half of the year increased.

Wen Zhihong, a senior chain industry expert and general manager of Hehong Consulting, told reporters that in addition to the impact of the epidemic and raw materials, it also has a lot to do with the existing business of the three duck neck giants. The growth of Payon duck goods has basically touched the ceiling. In addition, the rise of some emerging brands is also occupying market space, bringing a certain pressure to the traditional falian giants.

The heroes impact the three giants by "halogen"

Many companies start IPO

As Wen Zhihong said, emerging brands have sprung up like rain, which has created a certain impact on the operation of the three giants.

The reporter visited the market and found that the emerging net red lochi brand is rising strongly, and the product has become the standard for street shops. Taking Yunjing East Road in Tongzhou, Beijing as an example, on the streets of less than 500 meters, more than a dozen Lifei shops are distributed, which shows that the fierce competition in the fulty industry.

Capital also follows this fat, and many emerging brands have received a lot of financing. For example, in June 2021, Shengxiang Pavilion with "fresh halogen and fresh food" as the selling point received 100 million yuan in financing; in July 2021, the hot halogen light meal brand thermal food glory completed the angel round financing; at the end of the same year , Wang Xiaolou, a fume snack brand Wang Xiaolou, completed the round B financing, which is also the fourth round of financing it has received; in October, the snack brand Yan Lutang also received tens of millions of yuan A financing.

According to incomplete statistics from Tianyancha, in 2021, there were 25 financing incidents in 21 halogen companies, including the nagging bandits of the main online retail, the aunt of the new hot halogen brand, and the prefabricated bracelet brand chrysanthemums. The investment lineup is also extremely luxurious, including Sequoia China, Source Capital, Challenger Capital, Gao Rong Capital, Today's Capital, Tencent Investment and other capitals entered the bureau.

In addition, leisure snack players and catering giants have also played new tricks on the business of Lifei. Three squirrels and Baicao flavors have launched tiger -skinned phoenix claws and other braised products, while Haidilao, Zi Hi pot and other catering fast food brands The trend of fully snacking and rapid foodization is becoming more and more obvious.

The emerging brands poured into the market under the eyelids of the three giants, and the scale of the fulivin market continued to expand and the market share concentration was low. According to the data from Ai Media Consultation, the scale of China's halogen products in 2021 reached 329.6 billion yuan, and it is expected to reach 405.1 billion yuan in 2023.

According to the research report of Guotai Junan (14.720, -0.01, -0.07%), in 2020, the Chinese halogen market CR3 (the top three companies account for the market share) of 3.66%. Ziyan Food and Huangshanghuang, with market share of 1.93%, 0.98%, and 0.75%, respectively. This situation means that the scattered market pattern has given the new brand a big chance in the future.

Compared with the lively first market, the secondary market is also very active. On July 7 this year, Ziyan Food was successful, and it was about to land on the A -share market. The main products were halogen foods such as husband and wife lung slices, Baisi chicken, and rattan pepper chicken. Just as Ziyan Food had just passed the meeting, another loquat company Texas chopped chicken also sounded the horn of listing. With the successful meeting of Ziyan Food and the starting IPO of the Texas picking chicken, the secondary market has appeared in the situation of "chicken and duck the same cage". For many years, the status quo of the "three -legged" "three -legged" may be broken.

It is worth mentioning that many media are not optimistic about the listing of Texas picking chickens. According to reports, the debt ratio of Texas chicken chickens is much higher than the industry average, single products, and weak growth. The scale of income is also lower than that of the three giants of traditional loquat.

Bao Yuezhong, the chairman of the new retail expert and the chairman of the Bumim Enterprise Management Consulting Company, told reporters that with the overcoming meeting of Ziyan Food, the capital of capital is interesting to the fully market. In the future, more emerging brands will enter the capital market. It will form a siege of traditional locho listed companies. Although some brands have not yet formed scale, they do not mean that they are at a disadvantage. For example: Liao Ji, a cooked food chain brand, is not worse than the product, channel, or the operating mode and expansion speed. Therefore, in the future, there will be some emerging brands that are expected to surpass traditional loquat listed companies in terms of operating models, marketing, and products.

Can opening the second growth curve be relieved?

Under the siege of emerging brands, the traditional brands have not been treated, and they have been looking for the second growth curve. The boundaries of many brands have gradually blurred, and they are gradually laid by leisure, meals, and new -style hot halogen.

Huang Shanghuang, the earliest landing in the capital market, began to explore the "second curve" of growth beyond the main business in 2015. It acquired real and old food Co., Ltd., which is mainly based on the sales of rice dumplings (referred to as "true old"). Essence For young consumer groups, Huang Shanghuang also founded the "Du Jiao Shi" brand, and tried to build a diet chain with roasted trotters and baking skewers to drain drinks supplemented by drinks.

In June of this year, Huang Shanghuang also released the news of the prefabricated dishes in and out of the interactive platform that the company is currently under the research of the pre -making market market. The prefabricated vegetable business of the company's controlling sharehold What method to enter the prefabricated market -related business company will conduct relevant research.

However, at present, the second growth curve of Huang Shanghuang does not seem to have achieved good results. The "Du Jiao Shi" brand has shown a loss as a whole due to the small stores and high background management costs in the first half of 2021, and due to the impact of the epidemic. The rice product business where "True Old and Old" decreased by 4.64%year -on -year, and it also showed a weak state.

In Bao Yuezhong's view, prefabricated dishes are the current hotspots. Many companies chase hot spots, and many companies have speculation. In the field of prefabricated vegetables, it is still in the exploration stage, and the special maturity model has not yet been ran. For example, the pre -making vegetables are basically hype hotspots, and the probability of success will be very low. At present, in the field of prefabricated dishes, there is still a long way to move consumers. In addition, Zhou Heiya is also actively seeking changes. Zhou Heiya, which has adhered to direct development for many years, has officially opened a franchise business model at the end of 2019, and further opened the single -store franchise model in June 2020. Change the business model to "direct -operated+franchise operation". In just two years, Zhou Heiya's franchise stores increased from 0 to 1535, which once surpassed direct business stores. The product category has also begun to expand horizontally, and has launched crayfish, shrimp balls, tiger skin and phoenix claws, and various vegetarian dishes. It is worth noting that Zhou Heiya has recently launched a joint box lunch "Honey Duck Leg Rice".

Juewei Foods expand the second growth curve through capital means. According to public reports, as early as 2014, Juewei Duck Neck set up net gathering capital to focus on the investment and layout of the catering industry chain. Not only did he invest in upstream enterprises for duck farming, suppliers of fast -frozen rice noodles, and many cold chain logistics companies, but also invested in "competing products" such as Liao Kee Bangs, Shengxiang Pavilion, Jingwu Duck Neck , Happy West Cakes and other light catering industries.

In addition, Bagu Mao belly hotpot, listed company Qianwei Chong Kitchen, and behind the "Tengjiao Oil First Stock" Tomoko Takako, which is listed, all have flavor foods. The annual report of 2021 shows that Juewei Food brings about 220 million yuan of investment income by transferring the equity of the noodles and the listing of Qianweiyang.

Li Yingtao, a senior analyst of the brand retail industry, believes that the giants need to be divided into two steps. On the one hand, we must consolidate their market position, open more stores, and increase the control of the industrial chain through supply chain optimization and extend upstream. force. On the other hand, the second growth curve is opened as soon as possible. "Two legs walk to walk longer."

Wen Zhihong said that the layout of the halogen industry is decentralized and the product homogeneity is serious. Large -scaleization has become an important method for the establishment of a moat for enterprises. The speed and scale of expansion are still the point of the secondary market. In addition, these three giants have the advantages of outlets and supply chains. Based on this, new products can quickly roll out in the market. However, before entering other fields, enterprises should do a good job of market positioning and choose differentiated tracks.

(The text mentioned in the article is only an example of individual stocks, and no suggestions for buying and selling.)

Source: Securities Market "Red Weekly"

Edit: Xing Zhibin

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