Before the disturbance of price decline and weak demand, the growth rate of industrial profits in July decreased by 1.1%

21st Century Business Herald reporter pays wing to fly Beijing report

On August 27, the National Bureau of Statistics released the industrial profit data from January to July.

From January to July, industrial enterprises above designated size achieved total profits of 4892.95 billion yuan, a year -on -year decrease of 1.1%. From the perspective of the three categories, from January to July, the total profit of the mining industry was 996.11 billion yuan, a year -on -year increase of 1.05 times; the total profit of the manufacturing industry was 3621.72 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.6%; The total profit was 275.12 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.5%.

Zhu Hong, a senior statistician of the Department of Industry of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that due to various factors, the profits of corporate profits have declined slightly, the cost level is still high, the market demand of some industries is insufficient, and the operating pressure has increased. The continuous and stable recovery of the industrial economy still needs to work hard.

PPI gains fall into the main cause of profit slowing

Zhu Hong said that since the beginning of this year, the increase in factory prices in industrial products has fallen month by month. In July, PPI rose 4.2%year -on -year, and the increase fell by 1.9 percentage points from the previous month. The increase in the price of industrial products gradually declined from a high level, and the role of the income and profit growth of industrial enterprises gradually weakened. Preliminary estimates that the decline in price increases led to the growth rate of industrial enterprises above designated size from January to July from 2.3 percentage points from the first half of the year.

"According to the calculation of the Bureau of Statistics, the price increase and falling factor basically contributed all the profit decline this month." Wu Chaoming, deputy dean of the Caixin Research Institute, told the 21st Century Business Herald that the global economic recession is expected to increase and the demand for domestic real estate. Most of the prices of commodities such as non -ferrous metals and coal fell, and the high base effect still exists. In July, the industrial producer's factory price index and production data price index increased by 4.2%and 5%, respectively, respectively, respectively, respectively, respectively, respectively. One percentage point is the main reason for the profit growth rate of profit again this month.

While the price of industrial products decreased, the cost of corporate costs rose again. From January to July, the cost of industrial enterprises above the scale of the scale of 84.70 yuan per 100 yuan, an increase of 0.95 yuan year -on -year; the cost of operating income per 100 yuan was 7.93 yuan, a year -on -year decrease of 0.50 yuan.

Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher at the Everbright Bank Financial Market Department, told the 21st Century Business Herald that although a series of effects of helping enterprises' rescue policies continue to appear, the current raw material prices are still relatively high. The demand is weak, and the pressure on the rising cost of corporate units is still increasing.

The losses of the raw material manufacturing industry expand

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to July, the profit of raw materials manufacturing fell 21.6%year -on -year, and the decline expanded by 7.6 percentage points from the first half of the year, affecting the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises above designated size 2.2 percentage points from the first half of the year. The industry sector with the most growth rate.

Among them, the steel industry's losses were the most obvious. In January-July, the profit of black metal smelting and extension of the industry decreased by 80.8%year-on-year, and the decrease was 12.1 percentage points from the first half of the year.

He Wenbo, Secretary of the Party Committee and Executive President of the China Iron and Steel Industry Association, issued a statement on August 26 that the current situation of the steel market is severe, and a monthly loss has occurred for the first time in the industry. Members of the Steel Association's key statistical members lost 9.6 billion yuan. Of the 90 companies listed in the statistics, 63 companies lost money in the month, with a loss of 70%and a total loss of 13.2 billion yuan. 63 companies with losses in July in July Output accounts for 49%of key statistical companies.

Regarding the reasons for the deep loss of the steel industry, Zhou Maohua pointed out that on the one hand, the high -compression of steel enterprises' profit space is severely compressed by high raw materials and fuel costs. On the other hand, the downturn in real estate and the continuous high temperature in summer make the downstream demand have not seen a rebound, resulting in unbalanced market supply and demand.

"Thanks to the active reduction of the price of raw materials, the profit performance of the product on the market in August has improved." Wang Guoqing, director of the Lange Iron and Steel Research Center, told the 21st Century Business Herald that prices have fallen for several months and declined in profits. Under the pressure of most steel companies, most steel companies have begun to start production -limited models to regulate unbalanced supply and demand relationships. At present, the profit margins of nuts, billets, and building material steel have obvious recovery. Although steel, hot rolls, cold rolls and other steels such as sheets are still in the loss range, the loss has been significantly narrowed. In the second half of the year, there are still directions in the second half of the year. Good trend.

In addition to steel, other raw materials industries have also declined to varying degrees of profit.

Zhu Hong said that due to factors such as the reduction of refined oil prices and high -priced crude oil inventory, the profits of the oil processing industry decreased by 44.0%, and the decrease was 11.6 percentage points. In addition, the decline in the profit of the building materials industry has expanded, and the profit growth of the chemical and non -ferrous smelting industries has slowed down.

The industrial profit structure is good

"The decline in profit growth in the upstream raw material industry is not necessarily a bad thing. The profit differentiation of the upstream and downstream industries was relatively serious. Now the profit of the middle and lower reaches of equipment manufacturing is gradually improving." Zhou Maohua pointed out that it has benefited from maintaining the supply of stable prices and the industrial chain supply chain. Continuous recovery and a series of favorable factors such as consumer policies have improved significantly, especially the current decline in industrial profit growth in the industry with high value -added industries is also a normal phenomenon of my country's industrial structure transformation.

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in July, the profit of equipment manufacturing industry increased by 6.8%year -on -year, and the growth rate increased by 2.7 percentage points from June, and the 3 months rose for 3 consecutive months. From the perspective of the branch industry, in July, the profit of the automobile manufacturing industry increased by 77.8%year -on -year, and the growth rate accelerated by 30.1 percentage points from June, which is one of the fastest -growing industries. %And 25.6%, all achieved rapid growth; the profit of general equipment manufacturing increased by 5.9%, and the growth rate accelerated by 0.9 percentage points.

Wu Chaoming believes that with the impact of anti -cyclical policies such as helping enterprises, the domestic economy is expected to continue to repair marginal repair, which is conducive to the improvement of industrial enterprises' profitability, but industrial profit restoration in the short term will still face twists and turns. On the one hand, domestic consumption is weak, and the investment and sales of the real estate market are still building a bottom. Inadequate demand will restrict profit repair space. On the other hand, as the demand for major overseas economies continues to weaken, and the decline in PPI -tail factor in the future, it is expected that price factors will continue to weaken the growth of industrial enterprises' profit growth.

Zhou Maohua predicts that in August, under the influence of complex factors such as high -temperature electricity restrictions and epidemic rebounds in August, industrial profits have risen limited, but September and October are the traditional construction and sales season of multiple industrial industries. The amount of 3.45 trillion special bonds has been basically issued, and the localities will further increase the implementation of the initial work and construction of the project. It is expected that a centralized release of demand will be ushered in in the third quarter, which will promote the significant improvement of industrial profits.

Zhu Hong said that in the next stage, it will efficiently coordinate the prevention and control of the epidemic and the development of economic and social development, maintain the stable and smooth supply chain of the industrial chain, actively expand effective investment, continuously release consumption potential, increase the efforts to help enterprises, continue to resume the efficiency of industrial enterprises to continue to create creation Facilities.

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