Quick hand needs more, and then handle the cold

Kuaishou posted a lot of Q2 financial reports much better than the same period last year.

The biggest highlight is not revenue (Q2 revenue 21.7 billion increased by 13.4% year -on -year, only 3% of the month -on -month growth, which still declined from the peak of Q4 last year), but greatly exceeded the market expectations to reduce losses (Q2 Q2 After adjustment, the net loss was 1.312 billion, a narrowing of 72.5%year -on -year). After the fast -moving international and domestic markets were calculated separately this quarter, the Q2 domestic market achieved a righteous business profit.

Quickly operating income and operating profit in the single quarter

The direct reason is that the fast -handed reduction has reduced sales and marketing costs, from 11.3 billion yuan in the same period last year to 8.8 billion yuan, and the sales cost rate also decreased from 58.9% to 40.4%.

This is an effective excitement for the market.

In addition, Q2, which has a serious impact on the epidemic, the two business data indicators of Kuaishou continued to grow up -the average DAU increased by 18.5% year -on -year to 347 million, and the GMV of e -commerce reached 191.2 billion yuan higher than the company's previous guidelines. This shows the ability to resist the risk of relatively strong epidemic in the fast -handed business.

But after speaking these positive factors, look at the core issues -the ability to make money, but it is hard to become optimistic.

There are three sources of income from fast hand, online marketing, live broadcast, others. Online marketing growth has begun to be weak, and live broadcasts are subject to industry trends and policies to lose their growth capabilities. The "other businesses" driven by e -commerce are also low due to the low monetary rate (about 1%), and the proportion of overall revenue is still low.

The problem of fast hands is that a company that is still bleeding is still trying to reduce costs and increase efficiency. In the face of the epidemic, it is also tough, but the ability to make money has slowed. When will the gap of loss be supplemented?

The expensive moat, anyway

If in the past few quarters, investors' biggest doubts about Kuaishou is that the marketing cost of the market for maintaining user growth is too high, resulting in a loss of fast hands. Kuaishou is buying users at a loss. According to the calculation of dolphins, the cost of acquisition and maintenance of Quick Single users reached a high of over 22 yuan in the first and second quarters of last year.

Then from this quarter, Kuaishou began to pay attention to "control" and changed a new way to pull a new way. According to the fast -handed CFO, Jin Bing revealed at the performance meeting that "we have explored the new growth path of social pull. The new users introduced through the new social pull, whether in the short term or long -term retention rate, have better performance. Socially meet the needs of self -display and acquisition of belonging. "

If Kuaishou's previous pull -ups are mainly sprinkled through the "Internet earning" model, then it now starts to emphasize the use of user social relationships to enhance value gain.

We can see that in the absence of the bottleneck of absolute share growth, Kuaishou broke through in terms of user activity, viscosity, and duration. The MAU of Kuaishou's main station has basically declined in the past few quarters, but the overall DAU of Kuaishou has continued to rise. The average DAU of Kuaishou Q2 increased by 18.5% year -on -year to 347 million, a record high. The ratio of DAU/MAU of Q2 Q2 increased to 59.2%, and the average daily use time of daily live users increased by 17.1% year -on -year to 125.2 minutes.

Kuaishou began to emphasize a indicator: interoperable users. As of the end of June 2022, the number of interoperable users applied by Kuaishou exceeded 20 billion pairs, an increase of 65.9%year -on -year.

When analyzing the business model of Internet product, the network effect is the key to its success -whether each new user can make this product/service/experience more valuable to other users. To some extent, the "network effect" of Kuaishou began to exert its value.

Of course, the above -mentioned "social relations" cannot produce network effects alone. In terms of content supply, product function design, flow distribution methods, etc., they need to be cooperated with each other.

For example, the blue -collar recruitment track, which is fast -entry, is a lower -cost leverage content and service compared to the previously costly Olympic Winter Olympics content. The number of active users of "Quick Recruitment" reached 250 million, an increase of 90%month -on -month.

Kuaishou CEO Cheng Yixiao said at the performance meeting that the decline in the growth of fast -hand DAU growth and the maintenance cost of single DAU appeared "benign scissors poor". The first year of new users, ROI continued to increase year -on -year and the month -on -month. "This has given us more confidence and moves towards the target of 400 million dau."

In short, from the results, the total traffic of fast hands (daily live*average daily user duration) increased by 38.7%year -on -year, while marketing and sales expenditure decreased by 22.3%year -on -year, and traffic costs continued to decrease.

This is a way to grow more suitable for the current macro environment and more suitable for its own platform characteristics.

Real hidden danger

In addition to "reducing costs" in marketing costs, the cost of technical costs and live broadcasts is also improving. Jin Bing introduced that the total domestic traffic in the first half of the year increased by more than 40% year -on -year, but the fast bandwidth and server costs accounted for more than 5%. According to the calculation of dolphin investment and research, the proportion of live streaming for the guild/anchor may decrease from 70% in the first quarter to 63%.

This cost reduction and efficiency guide a pretty good data. That is the first profit in the domestic market. According to the Q2 financial report, for the first time, domestic and overseas operating conditions are displayed separately. Quick domestic business achieves single -quarter profit targets in two quarters in advance. Q2 operating profit exceeds 93 million yuan.

Among the total revenue of Q2 21.7 billion yuan, online marketing services (advertising), live broadcasts and other services contributed 50.7%, 39.5%, and 9.8%, respectively. When the fast -moving commercialization falls its gravity when it comes to the Internet advertising market, it is better than many Internet companies. As a new pillar of revenue cultivated by Kuaishou after the live broadcast business, advertising Q2 increased by 10.5% year -on -year. Compared with the previous Tencent advertising business 18% of the year -on -year decline, it was extremely remarkable.

But the problem behind these optimistic data is that the growth engine of advertising is also weak.

Q2's advertising revenue increased by 10.5%year -on -year, the growth rate slowed down significantly. The growth rate of 156.2%in the same period last year, and the Q1 growth rate was 32.6%. In contrast of the 11.4 billion yuan of Q1, a decline in the decline, a decrease of 3.5%.

In the current environment, advertisers have become more harsh on conversion. According to "Late LatePost", many analysts estimated that the fast -handed Q2 advertising income is already declining if the advertisement brought by the e -commerce business is not counted. Ma Hongbin, who is responsible for commercialization for two years, said in May that because of the poor commercialization of Q2, he may be questioned in the management committee. Before the financial report was released, Ma Hongbin moved to overseas business.

Advertising in the platform brought by the fast -handed e -commerce business is increasingly regarded as the core of the toughness of the advertising business. That is, Cheng Yi smiled the "internal circulation" repeatedly mentioned in the previous quarter.

For this reason, the fast hand began to push "Xinshijing Business" in the second half of last year. This year, it also put forward the new e -commerce strategy of "big fast brand", hoping to accelerate the upgrade of the industry with white cards, and guide the white brand upgrade to "fast brand brand to“ fast brand brand ", Let the merchants in the fast -handed ecosystem make a profit in the station.

But obviously, the effect of "big -to -brand" is difficult to resist the speed reduction of external cycles. Judging from the Q1 financial report, although the number of advertisers increased by 60% year -on -year, it only drove an increase of 32.3% year -on -year. Q2 The number of advertising owners in Q2 increased by more than 90%year -on -year, and the growth rate of advertising revenue was maintained at 10.5%. This shows that the willingness and budget of these small and medium -sized merchants to be newly added by Kuaishou are not as good as previous advertisers.

Although the fast -moving old iron has become longer, although the stickiness and use time have become longer, a single user has not contributed more performance transformation. In the second quarter, Kuaishou's per capita online marketing service revenue was 31.7 yuan, a year -on -year decrease of 6.8%, and declined in two consecutive quarters. From the perspective of advertising inventory, if the price of ECPM is floating, the advertising loading rate of Kuaishou has declined.

According to media reports, the revenue of Kuaishou's advertising this year is 59 billion, and it plans to achieve a profit and loss balance at the end of the year. The quota of 22.357 billion yuan was completed in the first half of the year. At present, it seems that the goal is not small.

Speaking of e -commerce business itself, Q2's GMV reached 191.2 billion yuan, an increase of 31%year -on -year, which was higher than the Bloomberg market. Cheng Yixiao mentioned at the performance meeting that from the long -term perspective, I believe that the GMV of the live -broadcast e -commerce industry with short video platforms as the core has the opportunity to reach 6 trillion yuan, and Kuaishou will continue to strengthen our advantage in the industry.

The "other" business revenue brought by e -commerce and others was 2.12 billion yuan, an increase of 7%year -on -year, and the comprehensive commission rate can be roughly calculated by 1.11%.

The live broadcast e -commerce represented by Kuaishou and Douyin is already a small number of high -growth tracks in the entire e -commerce industry. In the case of logistics discontinuation during the epidemic, live broadcast e -commerce is relatively small, and it has seized the needs of merchants' demand for certainty transformation and promotion.

In the future, in the future, in the face of a conditional environment with a lower willingness to consume and the relatively low purchasing power of the fast -moving platform, how to go up in the fast hand is a more core proposition than the clothing shrinking food.

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