Promote the dynamic balance of stable growth and stable prices

Promote the dynamic balance of stable growth and stable prices

● Kuang Xianming

Maintaining the stability of prices is not static and stable, but a dynamic and stable market vitality. Therefore, it still needs to pay attention to the factors that may push prices in the short term and actively do the expected management of prices. Stabilize prices on the basis of steady growth, investment and consumption synchronization, and stabilize consumption expectations as soon as possible.

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the increase in consumer prices (CPI) in my country in July increased, up 2.7%year -on -year and 0.5%from the previous month; from January to July, CPI rose 1.8%over the same period last year. Facing the influence of factors such as the epidemic of new crown pneumonia and international geopolitical conflict, the price trend of prices in the second half of the year is worth paying attention to. It not only reflects the short -term economic situation, but also formed an important guiding role on society's expectations. Pay more attention to steady growth and stabilize prices on the basis of steady growth, so as to do a good job of management management, it has an important role.

For prices, you need to analyze from multiple angles. First of all, from the composition of CPI, several factors will have a certain impact on prices. First, as international oil prices have fallen, food has become the main factor of CPI rising. In July, food prices and non -food prices have a certain increase; second, service prices are still at a low level; and third, core CPI increases. In July, the core CPI without food and energy fell to 0.8%year -on -year.

Secondly, pork and vegetables focusing on food prices have become the main driving force for CPI upward. Data show that the amount of sow can rise for two consecutive months. Relevant departments have adopted measures such as pork reserves. Although pig prices still have some room for increase in the second half of the year, the amplitude is relatively limited.

Again, affected by the impact of the epidemic, the service industry is still recovering, and the price of service items is not easy to rise significantly. From the perspective of residents' consumption, the recovery of consumption is not strong. In the first half of the year, the total retail sales of social consumer goods decreased high year -on -year. Objectively, the CPI did not have the foundation of significantly higher.

In view of this, the price is expected to maintain stability in the second half of the year. However, maintaining the stability of prices is not static and stable, but a dynamic and stable market vitality. Therefore, it is still necessary to pay close attention to the factors that may push prices in the short term and actively do the expected management of prices. The first is to be alert to international energy prices, make a good preparation for international energy prices for a long time, coordinate energy security and development, and prevent the risk of input inflation; the second is to do a good job of food reserves. my country has a complete food reserve system, which basically establishes a national, provincial, municipal, and county -level grain emergency plan system. However, due to various factors such as abnormal climate, we must do food production in the second half of the year in advance to ensure that the annual grain output reaches more than 1.3 trillion pounds. In particular, it is necessary to avoid the expectations of rising grain prices in the society; the third is to do a good job of an epidemic. Such factors may impact short -term prices plans.

Stable prices should also stabilize consumer expectations as soon as possible. my country's consumer confidence index was lower in April, and rebounded to 88.9%in June. Although it was strong, it was not strong enough. Practical measures should be taken, such as optimizing the design of consumer coupons, combining stimulating short -term consumption and improving consumption expectations, promoting the accelerated rebound and recovery of consumption, and highlighting the vision of benefiting the people.

(The author is deputy dean of China Reform and Development Research Institute)

(Excerpted from the Economic Daily)

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