The stock price plummeted by 60 %, and Xiaopeng Automobile is difficult to "sell the crown"?

Source | Bohufn

Author | Chen Ping'an

Although the transcript of Xiaopeng Automobile (hereinafter referred to as "Xiaopeng") seemed to be able to convince capital for four consecutive quarters of the construction of a new power construction forces for four consecutive quarters.

On August 23, Xiaopeng Automobile released its financial report in the second quarter of this year. After the financial report was released, Xiaopeng Automobile's US stocks fell 10.81%, Hong Kong stocks fell 12.18%, and the market value of HK $ 125.4 billion, a decline of more than 60%during the year. After the fall, the gap between Xiaopeng and Weilai and ideal in market value was stretched to about doubled.

From the perspective of growth, considering the overall environmental environment of the automotive industry, Xiaopeng performed well. In the second quarter, Xiaopeng delivered a total of 3,4422 vehicles, a year -on -year increase of 98%, and revenue of 7.436 billion yuan, an increase of 97.7%year -on -year.

(Picture source: Network)

The biggest reason for the stock price to fall is still a loss that Xiaopeng can't stop. In this quarter, Xiaopeng's losses reached a new high to 2.701 billion yuan. Even if the losses caused by the exchange rate change, the net loss was still as high as 1.7 billion yuan, and the same period last year was 1.195 billion yuan. It was 4.402 billion yuan, a year -on -year decrease of 122.28%.

Faced with increasingly fierce competition, "sales of over 10,000 are only the end of the knockout", Xiaopeng needs to come up with a new card.

The more you sell, the more you lose more

The problem of losses expanded in two aspects.

On the one hand, for the entire industry, profitability is a common problem because the cost of new energy bicycles is too high and the profit space has been limited by upstream manufacturers for a long time. According to a study by the British "Financial Times" commissioned by Aowei Consultation, the manufacturing cost of electric vehicles is 45%higher than that of fuel vehicles with assembly costs and component costs.

The result is that the cost compression space is small, and the pricing is of great significance to gross profit margin. For example, the long -term positioning of the high -end Weilai and the ideal gross profit margin maintained at about 20%, while the gross profit margin of Xiaopeng, which has a relatively low -end product positioning, was 10.9%in the second quarter.

The rise in battery costs brought by the epidemic has made Xiaopeng Automobile's gross profit margin of this quarter decreased by 1.3%compared to 12.2%in the first quarter of this year.

Secondly, look at Xiaopeng's current models selling models. Except for P7 models, P5 and G3 models are positioned to medium and low -end, it is not a model with good profitability. In the first quarter of this year, G3 accounted for 18%, P7 accounted for 56%, and P5 accounted for 30%. In the second quarter, the most expensive P7 models accounted for 46%, while the G3 and P5 rose to 32%and 22%, respectively.

The new model P5 also encountered a bottleneck in the second quarter of this year. Different from the surprising sales in the early stage, it is difficult for P5 sales to exceed the 5,000 mark this quarter. This also increases the difficulty of Xiaopeng's profit.

(Picture source: Network)

On the other hand, other expenditures are also expanding.

For Xiaopeng, the focus of profitability is a breakthrough. This year, Xiaopeng focused on sales. Even under the influence of the epidemic, there were still 22 new companies in the company in the second quarter, maintaining the rhythm of continuing store expansion. As of the end of June 2022, the company's national sales stores were 388. It is manifested in data, sales and administrative expenses in the second quarter of 2022 were about 1.66 billion yuan, accounting for 24%of income.

R & D investment is also increasing. In the second quarter, Xiaopeng's research and development costs were 1.265 billion yuan, an increase of 46.5%year -on -year, and an increase of 3.6%in the first quarter.

In addition, in the financial report, Xiaopeng's guidance on the delivery of the next quarter is quite conservative. It is expected that the Q3 delivery volume is only 29,000 to 31,000 units.

This number is not only lower than the delivery number in the second quarter, but also means that except for the 11,500 vehicles that have been delivered in July, the delivery number of the remaining two months in the third quarter may be less than 10,000 margins.

Due to the fierce competition in the new energy vehicle track, under the premise of not optimizing the gross profit and long -term low, Xiaopeng still had to expand sales and research and development, which also made its losses inevitably expand.

R & D is difficult to monetize

Among the new domestic vehicles, intelligent assistance driving has always been one of the main selling points of Xiaopeng. Xiaopeng was the first domestic car company that realized autonomous driving. Xiaopeng's P5 was the world's first passenger model to mass -produced lidar.

With the continuous development of cars in the direction of intelligence and networking, "software definition cars" have become an industry consensus, and software profits have become the imagination space for new energy vehicle companies in the future.

Throughout 2021, Tesla, including autonomous driving software, and other businesses achieved operating income of US $ 3.802 billion, an increase of 65%. Musk believes that over time, FSD will become the most important part of Tesla's income source.

As a car company that has always been "intelligent" as a selling point, Xiaopeng has always been the highest among the three families of Wei Xiaoli. According to relevant data, Xiaopeng's R & D team is also the largest in the new forces. As of the end of 2021, the number of Xiaopeng, Weilai, and ideal R & D personnel were 5,271, 4,809, and 3,415, respectively.

But from May 9, Xiaopeng's intelligent auxiliary driving software was free. This also means that the original selection price of the new car is 20,000 yuan. If it is installed after picking up the car, it takes 36,000 yuan XPILOT 3.0 to be part of the revenue.

Because of this, on July 1, Nomura based on "the shortcomings of the software standard is that this strategy will postpone any opportunity to monetize software in the short term" and reduce Xiaopeng's target price from $ 64.6 to $ 36.3 Essence Xiaopeng's move is actually unreasonable. At present, the penetration rate of autonomous driving is low, and the user's acceptance of it is low. Free open use helps improve the penetration rate.

Even Tesla FSD's global penetration rate is only 11%, of which China and Europe have the most conservative reactions. At the Q4 telephone meeting last year, Musk said that only 1%-2%of Chinese owners chose to buy FSD.

The impact of the free strategy is also obvious. According to He Xiaopeng, in the order from Xiaopeng to the end of July, the penetration rate of mid -to -high models equipped with intelligent auxiliary driving software has increased significantly to more than 50%.

But even so, with the recent auxiliary driving accidents, it may take a longer period of time to rely on software profitability.

Before the autonomous driving and complete the user's mind occupation, Xiaopeng could not make up for marketing expenses through software revenue.

Advantages and disadvantages

On the whole, Xiaopeng still has his advantages compared to other new forces.

First of all, Xiaopeng G9 will be delivered in October will be the key hand to improve Xiaopeng's revenue in the future.

The first is because the current penetration rate of electric vehicles in this field is low. According to the registered data registration data of Chinese passenger car insurance, in the second quarter of this year, the BEV penetration rate of A0 and A00 is only 14%. Space has certain potential in running.

This founder He Xiaopeng, known as the "best SUV within 500,000" new cars, harvested 22,819 orders within 24 hours of blind order. The data is better than P7 data.

At the same time, according to market rumors, the pricing of G9 may be very helpful for high-end models to increase the gross profit of car companies in the range of 35-45 million yuan.

Secondly, on the intelligent battlefield, Xiaopeng is indeed at the forefront compared to other peers. For example, in the second quarter of this year, Xiaopeng completed the development and testing of the first mass production version of the city. Most other manufacturers are currently focusing on high -speed and parking scenarios.

At the same time, compared to Weilai's power replacement, Xiaopeng chose super fast charging in the supplement system. As of early August, Xiaopeng has set up more than 1,000 charging piles, including 799 supercharges and 201 201.

According to the official statement, the 800V high -voltage fast charge technology supported by Xiaopeng G9 can achieve 5 minutes of charging through Xiaopeng's ultra -fast charging pile S4 and increase the battery life by 200 kilometers.

This can almost fundamentally solve the problem of electric vehicles.

In terms of production capacity, the second -phase annual production capacity of the Zhaoqing plant after the expansion of Xiaopeng has reached 200,000. During the year, there are also factories in Guangzhou and Wuhan. According to official disclosure, the total production capacity of the three major factories can reach 400,000 units an annual output and an annual production capacity of 600,000 vehicles.

However, for the third quarter of the moment, Xiaopeng needs a lot of challenges.

For example, the current product concentration and the price range of 100,000-300,000. In this price range, BYD is the absolute king, and it is also the main price range of fuel vehicle manufacturers such as GAC Trumpchi. User attraction is limited. How to maintain the market share will be a big challenge.

(Picture source: Network)

And with several relatively frequent price reductions, Xiaopeng has aroused some consumers' dissatisfaction. On the black cat complaint platform, there are not a few disputes caused by the price reduction due to promotion.

It is foreseeable that Xiaopeng's trough will last for a while.

Reference source:

Outside: price reduction, can not save Xiaopeng being "three kills"

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