"Finance and Economics" Liu Shijin: Several issues on "steady growth" of the current economy

Liu Shijin: Several issues of "steady growth" of the current economy

Finance

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This year's economic growth goals

At the beginning of the year, the government proposed a 5.5%growth goal. From the perspective of the potential growth rate, this is a goal that requires a tiptoe to get a jump. It is difficult, because the current potential growth rate in China is generally 5 on 5 5 %~ 5.5%. Judging from the actual situation, the increase in 4.8%in the first quarter, although low, basically meets expectations.

However, after April this year, due to the impact of the epidemic, the growth of some areas has declined sharply. Of course, the situation has improved after June. High -frequency data shows that recently the economy as a whole is a gradual trend, but the growth rate in the first half of the year is 2.5%, which should be said to be lower than expected. Therefore, the priority is that the economy can return to the orbit of normal operation as soon as possible. Can we consider putting forward a goal: strive to achieve a 5.5%growth rate proposed in the early half of the year. If it can be achieved, the average annual average should be around 4%. From the current situation, it is not easy to achieve such a goal. It is difficult, and the challenges are still more.

Current epidemic prevention and macro policy issues

To achieve such a growth goal in the second half of the year, the most important uncertainties are the epidemic, because this is uncontrollable. However, in the context of continuing to cope with the impact of the epidemic, we should strive to form a comparative, expected, and general economic operating environment.

Recently, we have also seen some news, hearing some reflections, saying that the resumption of work in some areas is not as good as expected. Why not expect it? Some companies dare not expand their procurement and increase recruitment, and worry that they do not know when they will encounter the control of the epidemic. In this way, the increased expenditure will not be collected. Therefore, whether the normalization of the epidemic should reach a state: that is, the operating activities that the actual occurrence of the epidemic and the influence of prevention and control policies should be within a scope of expected, tolerated, and as small as possible. To create a key requirement for most people and most business activities to be more certain, normal, or close to normal business environment for most of the time, this should also be a key requirement for high -efficiency collaborative epidemic prevention and control and economic growth.

Regarding macro policies, there have been more sounds that have recently called for further relaxation of macro policies. However, if a normal operating economic environment is lacking, is it loose or tight whether the macro policy is loose or tight, which is actually difficult to evaluate. Some policies are over. When the economy is running normally, side effects may be relatively large. Please pay attention to the recently announced data, that is, the domestic financial indicators such as M2 and social finances in June have exceeded 11%. The growth rate of the initial quarter of M2 and 2020 was the same. It should be said that the entire liquidity should be said Still abundant.

Recently, the world has paid much attention to the United States' inflation, reaching 9.1%in June, which is significantly exceeded that the expectations are excessive currency in the preliminary epidemic prevention and control process. The Fed's response should be very clear. It has to raise interest rates sharply, but the price of the overall economic recession has increased accordingly. We need to pay attention to experience in this aspect of experience.

In addition, the issue of inflation effects. The international energy and grain prices have risen sharply due to the impact of multiple factors such as the impact of the epidemic impact, the Russian -Ukraine conflict, and the loose monetary policy. The CPI of the United States and Europe has reached a new high in 40 years, and the domestic CPI index has also announced 2.5%in June. High -frequency data shows that this indicator has risen now. The level of internationalization of the Chinese economy is now quite high, and it is impossible to not be affected by external fluctuations, but under normal circumstances, its impact can still be controlled within a limited range. The main reasons are the following three. First, China is an oversized economy. In fact, it is still the main circulation. The ability to absorb external shocks should be significantly stronger than other economies, especially small and medium -sized economies. Secondly, China is currently sufficient. The characteristics of the so -called "excess economy" are relatively obvious. For example, grain production is now "eighteen consecutive Feng". For the production capacity that everyone is very concerned about, the relevant government departments are also paying attention to regulation. In terms of energy, the supply of supply that occurred in the previous period of time also took measures in a timely manner, especially at the same time as the stable supply of traditional energy, the recent growth rate of production capacity was relatively fast, so the entire supply capacity was relatively strong. This is the most important supply side of the stable price, or the material basis we usually talk about. Third, the Chinese government has a strong overall regulation capacity. It can stabilize prices to ensure people's livelihood through some reserves through throughput, adjustment and price subsidies, and price subsidies. However, the risk of cost -promoting inflation cannot be taken lightly. After a brief review of the history of these years, after getting rid of the shortage of shortage of economy in the 1990s, China's inflation is not mainly from demand pull, but cost promotion. Before the 1990s, there were several major inflation in China, mainly due to the shortage of supplies. After the 1990s, the shortage economy gradually turned into an excess economy. What type of inflation is? Promotion. In the past year, we have experienced a sharp rise in PPI, but due to fierce competition in middle and lower reaches, most of the price increase has been digested by these middle and lower reaches. It doesn't work without digestion, because the demand is not so strong, so it is not obviously transmitted to the CPI. Although PPI and CPI are a scissors difference, the scissors have been shrinking recently. Especially like food and energy, there may be differences between other goods. Its characteristics are that demand is very small and productivity is slow. Judging from some historical situations, the price of the price increase of this type of commodity to CPI is actually not small.

Will there be a cost -promoting inflation in the next step? I think this problem still pays attention. Because cost -promoting inflation may occur if the supply is not tight, or even excess supply. Because it is a adjustment of price -comparison relationship, which is essentially the adjustment of interest relationships between different departments. Of course, this risk is not large in the short term, and it does not need to be too nervous, but it still needs to pay attention and vigilance, and there should be a certain reserves in terms of policy.

Investment and consumption on demand side

At present, it is necessary to say that the demand side is steadily growing. First of all, it is a stable investment. At present, the focus is on real estate. This issue has recently discussed a lot. Many people think that the biggest factors that affect the economy at present are the epidemic and the other is real estate.

According to an analysis framework I used in the past, China's real estate has entered the peak period of historical demand a few years ago. But in recent years, the entire real estate market has grown well and has strong toughness. However, if you look closely, it is actually a structural demand: mainly because some regions are rising, and the rapid development of the urban circle urban agglomeration is driving. However, this demand seems to have reached a peak, so the growth rate of real estate has fallen to a certain degree, which is inevitable and regular.

However, the situation is now that since the second half of last year, real estate has entered a continuous negative growth. We have a full -caliber data statistical system. Based on the year -on -year caliber of the month, real estate investment has entered a negative growth since July last year, and so far we still grow. Of course, from the official data, the real estate development investment in the first half of the year fell by 5.4%, but this was calculated using the current price. If the unchanged price just mentioned was calculated year -on -year, the decline was even larger. The national real estate sales area and sales have also decreased by more than 20%. The real estate industry has a large scale, leading to the industry, and directly related to finance and people's livelihood, so it will inevitably bring a global impact too fast.

In the past, there were more discussions on real estate issues. How to solve the problem, we must look forward to it. Overall, we should still treat this industry very cautiously. We should take a goal to take strong and effective measures to enable real estate to return to a normal operating environment and growth track as soon as possible. Recently, relevant departments have taken some measures. At the same time, it is necessary to grasp the time to solve some deep -level contradictions and problems, and gradually form a long -term mechanism of stable development. Long -term problems are not solved, and problems are prone to in the short term. The long -term mechanism has been speaking for many years, and this time can there be a substantial progress.

In addition, I think that in the past, we lacked attention to our economic research, but a field that needs to be concerned is to remove other service industries after infrastructure. We have a database that the proportion of investment in this field has exceeded 15%in recent years. In the past, the proportion was relatively low, about 10%or even less than 10%. However, the proportion in recent years has been rising, and now it has reached 15%. The proportion of investment and infrastructure investment at the same level is around 15%to 20%. Except for the investment in other service industries after infrastructure, it is actually very important, but it is obviously not enough to pay attention to. For example, the current economic situation is analyzed, and few people talk about investment in this industry. Take a closer look at the contents of this industry's investment: business services, scientific research, education, medical care, health, social security, wholesale, retail, cultural and entertainment, etc., reflect the upgrade of the consumption structure. The overall investment in the investment since last year, including the continuous price of the month, was actually a negative growth year -on -year, but the investment in this area was basically stable, and the growth and growth rate ranked first in various investment. Because of this, I want to appeal to my friends in the economy. In the future, we should discuss the investment of other service industries other than infrastructure as infrastructure and real estate. After talking about the investment, consumption is talked about. The importance of consumption is very clear. There are two issues now, one is to help the difficulties, that is, to rescue difficult groups; the other is to expand consumption. This is more concerned about the middle income group, so that some people can truly expand consumption. The problem of rescue groups is more concerned now. Since last year, the entire economy has declined and consumption is declining. In the understanding of the average person, the impact of the epidemic is mainly to have a greater impact on contact consumption, so service consumption should decrease greater. But we see that some data are unexpected, and sometimes the decline in commodity consumption exceeds service consumption. One possible reason is that the epidemic has been about three years. Some of the difficult groups, especially those groups with "hand -stop". Their actual income is declining, resulting in the decline in the purchasing power of basic daily necessities. There are also many discussions about the economic community in this issue, and a lot of suggestions have also been made for how to rescue difficult groups, such as issuing consumer coupons, and some people make suggestions such as direct cash. One of these suggestions facing a very practical problem is to distribute channels. I have a related suggestion that the group of difficulties should first use the channels that can be used well. At the end of last month, a research team used the online platform to distribute a special investigation and questionnaire to monitor and analyze the situation of flexible employment groups. In more than 26,000 effective questionnaires, 87.8%of unemployed personnel did not receive unemployment insurance when talking about unemployment protection. Why didn't you get it? 50.6%of them, that is, half of the people answered that they did not know how to apply. Therefore, we believe that we must still use the existing social security channels to improve the degree of accessibility and the knowledge of social security and the way to get the way to truly guarantee.

In addition, the issue of consumption also needs to pay attention to public consumption. Now that consumption is expanding or upgraded, an important aspect is not personal consumption, but public consumption. Looking at the changes in the consumption structure, the proportion of public consumption is now rising. This is normal after this stage of China's income reached this stage, but the rise in public consumption proportion is directly related to the equalization of basic public services. This is also an old problem. We have been calling for the reform of the household registration of nearly 300 million migrant workers and related housing, social security, medical, health, education and other basic public services in the household registration reform of nearly 300 million migrant workers. If you can make a big progress and can do some practical things, you can play a pivotal role in expanding the stable growth of domestic demand by expanding public consumption to drive housing and infrastructure investment and cultivating human capital, especially to drive consumption.

Structural potential on the supply side

Regardless of the short -term or medium and long term, the foothold of the steady growth must be placed to the structural potential of stimulating the supply side. The economic downturn, people pay more attention to macro policies, but in fact, macro policies solve the problem of short -term macro balance and stability. The Chinese economy has grown at a high speed of nearly 10%in the past 30 years, and has decreased to medium-speed growth in recent years, but it has also been 6%-7%in the past few years. Now we have at least 5%of the potential growth rate, which is mature than the United States and other mature ones. The growth rate of developed economies is doubled to twice as much as possible. So what is the high part of the part, is it because of macro policies? It should not be, or we have structural potential. Simply put, the gap between China is now growing up as a post -developed economy and these advanced countries. We have just passed 10,000 US dollars now, and will reach the per capita income level of middle -developed countries by 2035. The per capita income level of medium -developed countries is generally US $ 30,000 to 40,000, and from 10,000 US dollars to $ 30,000 is China's structural potential, which is quite large.

Recently, I proposed the structural potential framework of "1+3+2" in the medium -speed growth period. The so -called "1" is based on the development of urban groups in the urban circle. We have made a calculation. Probably for a long time in China, at least 60 % of the new growth momentum is within this range. The so -called "3" is to make up the three shortcomings: the three shortcomings of the basic industrial efficiency, the size of the middle income group are not large, and the basic research and development capacity is not strong. "2" is the new economic growth momentum. I call two "wings", which is the digital economy and green development. Simply put, it is a leading leader, with three shortcomings, and two wings empowerment. This is a popular saying. This is China's structural potential for a long time. If this structural potential can be discovered, the overall growth potential of China at this stage is still relatively large, and we still have confidence in the prospects of growth. It should be said that in general, China is still in an important opportunity period for modern construction. The advantages of China's market large scale, full -scale industrial support, strong hedge recovery capabilities, and innovative resource gathering will be maintained and continuously enhanced. But when you look back, you will find that some structural potentials are bound by the policy and mechanism policies of our existing institutional mechanism, and you can't see it. The next step to release these structural potentials, it is still necessary to further deepen reform and opening up, especially to launch some reform measures with expansion effects. Deepen reform and opening up, stable expectations, release structural potential

First, stabilize growth and the development of the private economy must first stabilize expectations. China's economic slowdown began in the second half of last year. It is not the impact of the epidemic, because there are some policies, including the synthesis effect of some regulatory policies, which has a certain effect on economic growth. Essence Last year, the Central Economic Work Conference proposed a triple pressure, one of which was expected to weaken. If this problem cannot be effectively solved, investor producers are not optimistic about the prospects, macro policies are loose, and whether potential growth can be played, I am afraid it is still a problem.

How to stabilize expectations, it is necessary to further reiterate and further clarify the series of political policies of the party and the country on the development of reform and opening up, such as adhering to economic construction as the center, insisting on two unshakables, adhering to the construction of high -standard socialist market economy systems, adhering to high high The level is open to the outside world, adheres to the use of resource elements equally in accordance with the law, publicly and fair participation in competition, and is also protected by law. These words have been said before, and it has to be said that there has been a lot of noise in this area since a period, which has aroused ideological and policy confusion. Therefore, through this reiteration and further clarification, clarify right and wrong, and enhance the confidence in the development of the party and the country of reform and opening up.

In addition, it is necessary to further clarify the positioning and role of the private economy, and give the private economy for a long effect. The Economic Committee of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference has recently carried out a research on common wealth issues, proposing that by 2035, it will double the increase in middle -income groups. In the process of doing research, we found that the next step that may enter the middle -income group, that is, the 3/4 of the potential secondary income groups are employed in the private economy. This shows that in the next step, if we do not vigorously develop the private economy, it is difficult to expand the middle -income group and promote the realization of common wealth goals. In the past, the importance of developing the private economy from different perspectives. I want to add one in the next step. To promote common prosperity, we must also accelerate the development of the private economy.

Second, strengthen the publicity and education of the basic common sense of the market economy, adhere to the use of marketization and rule of law, and maintain the continuity and stability of the development environment and policies. Our country has been engaged in a market economy for more than 40 years, but the way of thinking about the planned economy will still come out consciously or unconsciously. For example, there are individual areas last year, of course, it is relatively short. After this phenomenon comes out, you can do an analysis. First of all, is it possible for government departments to accurately calculate the total energy consumption of a certain period of time (such as a few months or a few quarters or a year)? This is actually an old problem. At that time, we needed to promote the planned economy to the market economy, and to reform and opening up, because government departments could not be considered accurate and needed to give this calculation to the market. These basic principles still need to be repeatedly emphasized to strengthen the publicity and education of the basic knowledge of the market economy, thereby reducing some improper intervention. To introduce policies and resolve contradictions, we must use the market as much as possible and the rule of law. On the occasion of administrative measures, it is necessary to improve the scientific and accurateness, strengthen communication with the market and society, which is conducive to stability and enhancement, rather than not Weaken the expectations of market entities.

Third, there should be more and more practical policies in terms of stability. First, in supporting the development of private economy, platform economic development, and innovative leading enterprise development, a number of targeted and strong policies can be introduced. The second is to deepen reform and opening up, solve the in -depth institutional structural contradictions, and adopt some iconic reform and opening up measures, such as the reform of rural land systems, migrant workers entering the city, equalization of basic public services, relaxation of basic industries areas In terms of access and institutional regularity, some policies and measures that have expanded effects and can boost confidence can be adopted.

Fourth, in the new period of reform and opening up, we still have to talk about the stones crossing the river and effectively combine the top -level design and grass -roots tests. Some people say that it has been more than 40 years of reform and opening up. Do you still have to cross the river with stones? The answer is yes. This involves understanding of the methodology of reform and opening up. Reform and opening up must solve different problems during different periods. Different periods have passed the river, and the river is different. For example, in the early days of reform and opening up, we faced whether the rural joint production contract responsibility system could engage in these issues. These problems are not problems now, because they have been resolved, but they were unclear at the time. So what are we facing now? We need to build a high -standard market economy, to achieve high -quality sustainable development, and we still face a large number of unknown and uncertain factors, and we must encourage exploration and trial and error. The top -level design refers to the direction and the bottom line. Under this premise, the enthusiasm and creativity of local grassroots enterprises and individuals must be encouraged. Find the right method by trial and error, summarize and improve it within a larger range. Establish a growth carbon exchange market that promotes green innovation through structural monetary policy support

Finally, ask another specific question. We are talking about the digital economy and green development now, which is indeed new kinetic energy, but how to provide it with an effective market incentive through reform? In this regard, we have recently done a research team to propose to establish a growth carbon exchange market that promotes green innovation through structural monetary policy support. The so -called growth carbon exchange refers to the use of low -carbon, zero -carbon and negative carbon technology to obtain the same output, compared with the original high -carbon benchmark production method, the reduced or offset carbon emissions. The growth carbon exchange market can coexist with the existing carbon emission rights, and the latter's main task is to motivate stock reduction. The growth carbon exchange market should focus on the technological innovation of the incentive incremental part. This market should have strong tolerance, which can include green energy products such as green power, but also products that can produce growth carbon exchange in high -carbon sectors such as steel, building materials, and chemical industry. You can provide special funds through issuance or central banks, and the products that enter the growth carbon exchange market are purchased for the initial purchase at a certain price, and then transferred to the market to circulate. The price of carbon exchange on the market is the value assessment and remuneration method of reducing the emission reduction of technological innovation products. The government can adjust the capital scale to increase the scale of funds in the market accordingly. The determination of growth carbon exchange should meet the relevant technical standards and rules at home and abroad, and can use digital technologies and methods such as blockchain to reduce costs and standardized processes.

Liu Shijin: Member of Chang'an Street Reading Club and former Deputy Director of the Development Research Center of the State Council

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