The commodity weekly newspaper 丨 high -level oil price diving, European gas prices rose, and copper and aluminum fell

21st Century Business Herald reporter Peng Qiang, intern Xue Yuanyuan Chen Jiejie Beijing reported

This week (June 13th-June 17th), international oil prices dived all the way, and WIT crude oil and Brent returned to nearly $ 110/barrel. The changes in market factors caused the expected demand to not be very optimistic.

In the low season of natural gas demand, due to the decrease in shipments in the United States and Russia, the crisis of natural gas supply in Europe, the local gas price direction has risen, and the global energy insurance supply work has begun this summer.

The performance of gold is still stable, and the demand for risk aversion is still there, while copper, aluminum, and iron ore have decreased simultaneously. The domestic steel market's off -season characteristics are more obvious, and strong expectations and weak reality continue to collide.

International oil prices have fallen sharply

The continuous rise of international oil prices began in mid -May and ended this week. The prices of WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil fell all the way, and both came to nearly $ 110/barrel. As of the close of June 18, Beijing time, the price of WTI crude oil futures delivered in July fell 6.83%to close at $ 109.56/barrel; the price of Brent crude oil futures delivered in August fell 5.58%to close at $ 113.12/barrel.

Jin Lianchuang crude oil analyst Han Zhengji pointed out that the US high inflation caused investors' concerns about the prospects of oil demand. Uncertain is the main reason for the decline in oil prices.

Kim Lianchuang predicts that crude oil prices will shock nearly $ 110/barrel next week.

European crisis in natural gas

Summer is a traditional natural gas off -season in the northern hemisphere, but now, the entire Europe is facing a new round of natural gas crisis. The reduction of supply and soaring prices have become the main theme.

This week, the United States and Russia have reduced the supply of natural gas to Europe at the same time and pushed the price of natural gas in Europe. At the beginning of the week, the price of TTF benchmark Dutch natural gas futures was 84.200 euros/sum hours. By June 17, the TTF natural gas price closed to 122.50 euros/MWh, and the cumulative increase of 47.59%within the week.

Last week, the US exporter Free Port Natural Gas Company had a fire in a liquefied natural gas factory in Texas. On June 14, the company stated that it may take three months to restart the facilities, which is more than the estimated supply interruption time last week. long. The accident led to a decrease in the sources of filling the natural gas supply gap.

In addition, Russia has greatly reduced its natural gas supply to Europe on the grounds that the equipment used in the "Beixi-1" natural gas pipeline needs to be repaired. According to Xinhua News Agency, since June 15, France has not received Russian natural gas through Germany. On June 17, Italy and Slovakia both said that the supply of natural gas was only half of the normal value. The amount of gas will decrease, and the decrease in Russia's gas supply has exacerbated the tension of European energy supply. This week, the EU's gas storage has fallen for the first time since April.

Gold performance stable

The overall price of gold futures in New York this week showed a downward trend. At the beginning of the week, the price of gold futures in the New York Commodity Exchange fell to $ 1831.8/ounce. As of the closing of June 17, the New York Commodity Exchange's gold futures price closed at US $ 1840.6 per ounce in August, and the cumulative decrease of about 1.9%within the week.

The World Gold Association recently pointed out that global investors have continued to rise with rising inflation pressures, the increase in the risk aversion attributes of gold in the context of high geopolitical risks, and fluctuations of the RMB to gold, which has become the main factor in supporting gold prices. In addition, the high volatility of the global stock market also increases the market's demand for gold to a certain extent. Although the global central bank's sharp interest rate hikes will put some pressure on gold, under the support of inflation, geopolitical risks, and non -US currency fluctuation risks, gold has recently performed stable.

Shanghai Copper Four Company

Copper prices this week are weak and shock, and the price center of gravity continues to move down. On June 13, Lun Tong closed at $ 9294/ton. By June 17, Lun Tong closed to $ 8962/ton, down below the $ 9,000/ton mark. Shanghai copper continued to fall. On June 17, the closing fell to 6,9740 yuan/ton, which has fallen for the fourth consecutive trading day. Since mid -February, it has fallen below 70,000 yuan/ton for the first time.

Donghai Futures Research Report pointed out that the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate hikes have fallen, and the pressure of inflation in the United States has increased. In terms of fundamentals, the domestic supply side gradually shows a loose state, and the consumption recovery of demand is not as good as expected, and there is a dual weak pattern of supply and demand.

Huatai Futures Research reports that the market's concerns about the future economic outlook are not conducive to the expectations of copper; however, the continuous high inflation has a certain boosting effect for products.

The characteristics of the off -season of the steel market are becoming more and more obvious

The comprehensive price of Lange Iron and Steel National Steel this week was 4921 yuan/ton, a 3.7%decrease from last week. According to Lange Iron and Steel, the operating rate of major domestic steel companies this week has declined, which is basically the same as that of the same period last year; social inventory continues to rise, the rise in building materials inventory has slowed slightly, and the inventory of board inventory has rebounded slightly.

On June 15th, the National Frequently deployed measures to support private investment and promote projects in one way to better expand effective investment and drive consumption and employment. According to Lange Iron and Steel analysis, supporting private investment and increasing urban renewal investment will become an important measure to make up for the lack of steel, thereby driving the demand for domestic steel to gradually come out of the trough; Essence From the perspective of the supply side, due to the continuous raising of coke prices in the near future, most of the steel mills are already on the edge of profit and loss. Steel manufacturers have fallen into a dilemma of price and reduced production. The release of short -term steel production capacity will be under pressure. From the perspective of demand, although all departments and provinces and cities are actively implementing a package of stable economy, it is currently in the off -season of steel traditional demand, and the domestic steel market shows a significant situation of strong expected collisions.

Lange Iron and Steel predicts that in the short term, the domestic steel market will present the main line of insufficient demand, cost support as the bottom line, and stabilize growth and strong expected to be traction. The domestic steel market may show a weak bottom next week.

The price of iron ore fell sharply

The price of iron ore has fallen sharply this week. As of June 17, the main futures expenditure price of the domestic iron ore closed at 790.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13.56%from the closing price last week. It closed at $ 122.2/ton on Friday, falling until the beginning of this year.

According to the analysis of Lange Iron and Steel, the sharp decline in iron ore prices this week is mainly affected by the demand side of steel and the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike. From the perspective of demand, traditional demand is coming, and steel prices have continued to decline. At present, the profit of steel mills has been reduced to near the profit and loss balance line. In addition, the expectations of crude steel production to reduce production have been continuously enhanced. We weakened, and foreign mining may accelerate. In addition, the Fed raised interest rates sharply, further inhibiting iron ore prices.

Lange Iron and Steel predicts that the current sharp and air factors in the iron ore market will gradually increase, and the fundamentals will gradually weaken. It is expected that the mine price will continue to run weak next week.

Dynamic coal broad shock

This week, the price of power coal declined. As of June 17, the main futures contract of power coal closed at 833.6 yuan/ton, a closing price of 867 yuan/ton last week, a decrease of 3.92%.

According to the analysis of the CCTD China Coal Market Network, from the perspective of the supply side, under the dual background of global energy tension and "peak summer", the place of production will continue to implement a policies for confession, and coal production will still be maintained. From the perspective of demand, the impact of public health issues on terminal coal consumption still cannot be ignored. As the high temperature weather increases in the later period, the daily consumption will also rise. It is difficult to return to the same period last year. In addition, the current terminal is relatively high whether the absolute inventory and relative inventory are relatively high. Under the circumstances of "high inventory and low daily consumption", coal procurement needs will be limited.

CCTD China Coal Market Network believes that the supply of ports is relatively stable, and the demand is probably less likely to be than the same period last year, and the bargaining ability of the terminal will be significantly improved. In the short term, the cost of high incidence is the main factor of the price of the traders, and it will also affect the scope of price exploration to a certain extent.

Shanghai Aluminum continues to decline

This week, the price of Shanghai aluminum was shocked downward. As of the early morning of June 18, the main futures contract of Shanghai Aluminum received 19,600 yuan/ton, down below the 20,000 yuan/ton mark.

Soochow Futures analysis said that the retail data of social consumer goods announced on Wednesday shows that the national economic operation in my country has resumed momentum, and the impact of public health issues has gradually decreased. Due to the phenomenon of transfer inventory in East China and South China, the reference of Division data in the near future is relatively low. However, the global aluminum ingot explicit inventory continues to remove the price of aluminum. In addition, the market has strong expectations for the recovery of demand, but the demand is obviously improved. At the same time, Europe and the United States raise interest rates to suppress aluminum prices again.

Taken together, Soochow Futures believes that aluminum prices will remain weak in the short term. In the middle and long term, the pressure of the domestic supply end is still existing. As the seasonal off -season arrives, or the phenomenon of accumulated libraries, aluminum prices are difficult to rise.

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