[East look at the west] The exchange rate is a new depreciation low, how will the renminbi get?

Zhongxin Jingwei, August 25th (Song Yafen) On August 23, the US dollar index was once again refreshed by the nearly 20 years high of 109. Under the strong attack of the US dollar, the shore and offshore RMB fell below the 6.86 and 6.88 marks in the US dollar disk, respectively, refreshing the lows for nearly two years.

Renminbi reappears in the first half of the year?

In response to the reasons for the depreciation of the RMB in this round, CITIC Securities Chief Economist clearly stated to Zhongxin Jingwei: "The current pressure facing RMB is mainly the pressure of the US dollar index, so the RMB is more passive depreciation pressure, not the pressure of active depreciation. "

In the second quarter, the RMB had a short -term rapid depreciation. Will the renminbi reappear in the first half of the year? In contrast, it is obviously denied. "In the second quarter, the RMB depreciation was mainly due to a large impact on the fundamental fundamentals in April. The exports fell briefly, and the foreign investment in the financial market intensified. In the future, although the slope of economic restoration in July has slowed down, the recovery trend does not not have the trend of recovery. After changing, the probability of impact on the previous scale of the previous scale was not high, and after the foreign capital flowed out in the early stage, the outflow speed has slowed, and the foreign investment of the stock market has begun to return. Therefore, it is difficult for the renminbi to reproduce the depreciation of the first half of the year. "

Wen Bin, chief economist of Minsheng Bank, also holds a similar point of view. "Generally speaking, the recent depreciation of the renminbi is the reflection of the two -way fluctuations dominated by the market under the increasing exchange rate elasticity. It is not seen that the market has obvious herd effects, which is different from the depreciation of the first half of the year. "

According to Wen Bin, from the time point of view, the rounds of RMB depreciation and the rise of the dollar are almost synchronized. As of August 23, the US dollar index rose 3.27%from the 11th, the euro was degraded by 3.41%at the same time, the pound was degraded by 3.02%, the yen was depreciated by 2.82%, the shore was degraded by 1.67%, and the offshore RMB depreciated 1.64%. It can be seen that the RMB exchange rate is significantly stable than other major currencies. From the perspective of the daily US dollar against the middle price of the RMB, in addition to the slightly down reduction on the 24th, the actual price on the shore and offshore was basically referenced in the near future, and there is no obvious tendency to intervene in the policy.

How long will the "strong dollar" last?

Since 2022, the US dollar index has been extremely strong. As of August 23, the US dollar index increased by 14%during the year.

The recent significant rise in the US dollar has begun from August 12. Wen Bin analyzed the main reason is that Federal Reserve officials have recently released the signal of partial eagle. Let the dollar rise quickly.

Obviously, a strong dollar may last until the third or early fourth quarter. "The inflation situation in the United States is not clear, and the market is also changing to the Fed's interest rate hike, so from the perspective of the United States, the US dollar index is difficult to say in the near future. In Europe, in 2022, the euro against the US dollar fell below the parity twice, which is fundamental. The reason is that the European energy crisis, the fuse is Russia's maintenance of the European gas supply pipelines of Europe, which exacerbates the market's concerns about subsequent gas supply repair. Therefore, if the gas supply is resumed in the future, the depreciation of the euro may ease. The overall depends on it. The existence of the European and American economic differences and policies may make the strong dollar last until the third quarter. "

As for the follow -up trend of the renminbi, it is clearly believed that the current trade surplus has maintained a high level, and the inflow of FDI (foreign direct investment) has increased high year -on -year. Therefore, the trend of the US dollar index has caused certain disturbances to the renminbi in the short term. Generally speaking, the international revenue and expenditure in 2022 is in a balanced state, and the probability of RMB will still show a vibration trend.

Wen Bin also agreed with this. "At present, China's epidemic prevention and control situation is generally good. This is the biggest difference from the first half of the year. From the perspective of in recent months, the fundamental aspects of China's goods trade surplus and direct investment growth may be difficult to change. It will basically maintain a balanced, which will support the smooth operation of the RMB exchange rate. However, given that the US dollar is still in a large fluctuation pattern, it will still show a two -way fluctuations in the next stage of the RMB exchange rate. "(Zhongxin Jingwei APP)

This article is original by the Sino -Singapore Jingwei Research Institute, and the copyright of the Sino -Singapore Jingwei. Without written authorization, no unit or individual may be reprinted, extract or use in other ways.

Editor in charge: Sun Qingyang

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