RMB mid -price depreciation 148 points Experts: There is no basis for continuous unilateral depreciation

Zhongxin Jingwei, August 25th. On the 25th, the RMB was reported to the US dollar at 6.8536, and the 148 basis points were depreciated.

The intermediate price of the previous trading day was 6.8388, and the closing price at the shore was reported at 6.8654, 23:30 nights of the night.

On the 24th, the RMB -pairing exchange rate was high at 6.8430, and the highest rose to 6.8415 in the market. Subsequently, the RMB against the US dollar declined in the current exchange rate, one after another below the 6.85 and 8.86 mark, and the lowest depreciation of the plate to 6.8680, 16: 30 days The closing was reported at 6.8654, down 144 basis points from the previous trading day, a new low since the end of August 2020. In the past two weeks, the RMB exchange rate has increased. The US dollar/RMB rose from a phased low on August 10.

On the 24th, the US dollar index rose 0.1%to 108.65, and non -US currencies generally fell.

Looking back, after 2014, a total of three rounds of interest rate cuts have been experienced in China, namely November 24, 2014 to October 26, 2015, August 20, 2019 to April 2020, 2020, and December 20, 2021 2021 2021 2021 Day to the present. During this period, the RMB exchange rate was shocked.

Guotai Junan's large -scale asset allocation research team believes that the pressure of the RMB depreciation is still controllable. Under the environment of poor domestic economic momentum and weak credit, the slight devaluation of the RMB is conducive to export support, and it is also an effective measure to balance domestic and foreign prices and release cross -border financial pressure. Looking backwards, we believe that by the end of 2022, the RMB exchange rate will continue to depreciate slightly and fluctuate in both directions, and it is expected to fall into the range of 6.7 to 7.0.

Although facing the strong rise of the US dollar index, Morgan Asset Management Global Market strategist Zhu Chaoping said that the appreciation of the US dollar has also been affected, but compared with other currencies, the RMB has obtained more support, because traders bet on the Chinese economy for a long time for a long time Performance is stable.

Wu Chaoming, deputy dean of the Caixin Research Institute, said that at present, the staged pressure of China's cross -border funding has increased, and the two -way fluctuation elasticity of the RMB exchange rate may increase, but there is no basis for continuous unilateral depreciation. In terms of economic fundamentals for the important decisive factor of the RMB exchange rate on the US dollar, China's economic growth and the decline in the decline in the US economic growth have not changed. (Zhongxin Jingwei APP)

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