How can China respond to the inflation of many countries in the world?

Jimu Journalist Zeng Lingzheng

In the case of soaring inflation around the world, China's inflation has remained at a lower level. A number of economic experts reminded in an interview with Jimu Journalists on the 18th that although the Fed has raised interest rates sharply to control inflation, the policy effect may not be immediately appeared. At present, China's price stability has benefited from actively preserving the stable price policy and macroeconomic regulation, and it will still face the pressure of input inflation in the future.

Innovation in inflation rates in multinational countries

Recently, CPI data from many countries around the world showed that domestic prices have surpassed the expected increase, and the inflation rate has reached a new high for decades.

On June 10, the US Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) showed that the U.S. CPI in May without quarterly increased by 8.6%year -on -year, a new high in 40 years, and this is also the sixth consecutive month of CPI in the United States. Breakthrough 7%. After eliminating the large fluctuations and energy, the core CPI increased by 6%year -on -year.

This data has far surpassed the US Federal Reserve's average core inflation rate that remained at about 2%of the monetary policy goals.

On May 31, the EU Statistical Bureau also announced the preliminary estimated euro zone inflation data in May. The consumer price index of the euro zone increased by 8.1%year -on -year. After the index rose 7.4%year -on -year in April, the historical record since the establishment of the euro zone was renovated, and it also exceeded 7.7%of the previous forecasts.

Except for the United States and the European Union, malignant inflation has already occurred in emerging market countries. As one of emerging market countries, Russia's inflation rate has also exceeded expectations.

Generally, the inflation rate higher than 50%in the industry is defined as malignant inflation. In early June, Turkey announced that its May CPI increased by 73.5%year -on -year, and this inflation rate reached a new high of 23 years. Argentina's inflation rate in May has reached 55%.

As far as Russia is concerned, its April inflation rate is 17.8%, which is the highest level since January 2002. In early June, the Russian Federal Bureau of Statistics released data showing that the price of consumer in May increased by 17.1%year -on -year, which was already decreased from April. However, on the evening of June 17, Russian President Putin reiterated that Russia's inflation rate had reached 4%of the goal.

Federal Reserve's interest rate hike steady swelling

In order to cope with the worst inflation in 40 years, the United States has made a decision to raise interest rates sharply.

At 2 am on June 16, Beijing time, the Fed announced the decision of the latest monetary policy conference to adjust the federal fund interest rate target range to 1.5%-1.75%, and will continue to raise interest rates at subsequent conferences. In addition, the Fed will continue to reduce the balance sheet according to the plan given in May.

In his speech on the day, the Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that he would resolutely fight inflation, and at the same time mentioned the goal of restoring inflation to 2%. Powell also said at the press conference that various inflation expectations indicators showed that short -term inflation is very high, but in the next two years, it will decline significantly in the next two years. He gave economic predictions in the name of the Federal Reserve. In 2022, personal consumption expenditure was expected to increase by 5.2%year -on -year, but by 2023, it would drop to 2.6%and 2.2%by 2024.

IPG China Chief Economist Bai Wenxi Xiangxiang Jixiang Jiomu reporter analyzed that there are different degrees of inflation and prices in emerging market countries such as the United States, the European Union, and Turkey. The quantitative easing policy of the central banks and the Federal Reserve has released excessive liquidity.

"In response to this situation, the Federal Reserve has adopted the convergence action of a large continuous interest rate hike, and the central banks of other countries will also follow up in the future, so as to gradually reduce inflation pressure. The global inflation in the future will be alleviated." Bai Bai will be alleviated. " Wenxi is expected.

However, Wang Dan, chief economist of Hang Seng Bank (China) Co., Ltd., believes that the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate hike cannot appear immediately and can only be gradually controlled. While raising interest rates in the United States, emerging market countries are facing new risks.

"Global inflation cannot be resolved in the short term, because it is mainly limited by the shortage of energy and food supply." Wang Dan said, "The Federal Reserve’ s interest rate hikes can slow down the economy through cracking down on demand, so as to gradually control inflation, but cannot solve the problem of insufficient supply. The situation in the United States may last a long time. The pressure on the US interest rate hike is not fully released. It may be added twice in July and September, and the risk of US stocks is high. " The effect is great, which will increase the debt cost of all countries in the international market and lead to capital outflow. Most other central banks will also be forced to adjust the monetary policy, passively raising interest rates or difficulty in using loose monetary policies to stimulate the economy. "

China is facing input inflation pressure

While the inflation rate in multiple countries was stressful to economic operation, China's prices remained stable. On June 15, the National Bureau of Statistics announced in May that in May, consumer prices (CPI) across the country increased by 2.1%year -on -year, increase and increase and increase and increase and increase and increase and increase and increase and increase and increase and increase and increase and increase and increase and increase and increase and increase and increase and increase and increase and increase and increase and increase and increase and increase and increase and increase and increase and increase and increase and increase and increase and increase and increase and increase and increase and increase and increase and increase and increase and increase and increase and increase and increase and increase and increase and increased increase and increase and increase and increased increase and increase and increase and increase and increased increase. Last month, it was flat, a decrease of 0.2%month -on -month.

Deng Zhidong, director of the China CFO Hundred Talent Forum and senior economist, believes that this data is due to China's active policy of safeguarding and stabilizing and stabilizing, and it also shows that macroeconomic regulation is timely and effective. The supply of important livelihoods and the overall stability of the consumer and price level of residents shows that China's price level is generally in a controllable range.

As early as May 10th, the Wall Street Journal released "China is alone while the global inflation is soaring." Inner pointed out that China's residents' consumer prices (CPI) in March increased by only 1.5%year -on -year. China ’s CPI in 2021 rose 0.9%over the previous year. In sharp comparison, the United States CPI rose by 8.5%year -on -year in March, and 2021 rose 7.5%, the largest increase since 1982. The CPI in the euro zone in April reached a record high of 7.5%year -on -year. This is mainly because the Chinese government has taken greater efforts to prevent input inflation from being transmitted to consumers. Bo Wenxi also reminded that China's inflation pressure is also large. In the future, inflation of many countries may affect the stability of Chinese currency operation and price trend at a certain extent, and exacerbate domestic inflation pressure.

Wang Dan believes that there is still room for loose currency in China. Wang Dan further explained: "The nominal interest rate of China and the United States is close, but because the inflation in the United States is much higher than that of China, China's actual interest rate is still much higher than the United States. This means that China still has room for loose currency. Strong, it will increase the value of the RMB. China's capital account is strictly controlled. The domestic economic cycle is not subject to the US monetary policy. The stability of the currency value has always been the primary goal of the Central Bank of China. . China's monetary policy follows me as the main principle of me. It will consider the influence of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike, but it will not make a fundamental steering because of this. "

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