How big is the scale of retirement population in Chinese society?

"From now to the next 10 years, the" 60s' group has continued to enter retirement "-t. Recently, the discussion on the number of retirees has been discussed on the Internet. Facing the reality of deepening the aging of Chinese society, people's attention to the word "retirement" has also extended to topics such as public service supply and social pension system.

How large is China's retirees? What impact will it have on economic and social development? What are the preparations for the construction of the pension system?

China has crossed the first period of fast population aging

"There are a lot of people born around 1962." "Compared with the previous two years, old colleagues who retired this year are obviously more" ... In some enterprises and institutions, retirees have increased today.

If the number of birth rates and total population is calculated every year based on the annual birth rate and total population announced by the National Bureau of Statistics, and then simply calculated the number of birth population, the number of 60 -year -old population in the country was less than 12 million last year, and this year exceeded 20 million. It is expected to be close to next year. It is expected to be close to next year. 30 million. Reflected in real life, the number of retirees may increase significantly.

So, how to know the scale of China's retirement population in the future?

The number of births is still an important reference indicator. Yuan Xinxin, a professor at the School of Economics of Nankai University and vice chairman of the Chinese Population Scholars, told this reporter that according to the annual birth rate and total population of the National Bureau of Statistics, since the founding of New China in 1949, a total of 37 years of birth population exceeded 20 million. These 37 years have formed another three birth peaks.

The first peak was 1950-1958, during which the number of births of 6 years exceeded 20 million.

The second peak was 1962-1975, with a population of more than 20 million born each year, of which 1963 reached its peak, close to 30 million people.

The third peak was 1981-1997, with a population of exceeding 20 million each year.

"If it is pushed back in 60 years, this year corresponds to the second year of birth peak in 1962." Original new said that this is also the main reason why the number of retirement population has caused a lot of attention in the near future.

However, at present, China is mainly implemented by male cadres and employees, 60 years old, 55 -year -old female cadre and 50 -year -old retirement age. The number of retirees cannot be simply based on the 60 -year -old standard. In other words, a considerable part of women born around 1962 retired 5 years ago or earlier. In addition, data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that at the end of 2021, there were 141.26 million people across the country, of which 91.425 million in urban residents and 49.35 million villages. Nearly 500 million rural population has no strict retirement system and concept.

"Theoretically, the peak of birth may not necessarily correspond to the peak of retirement." Lu Jiehua, a professor at the Department of Sociology of Peking University and vice chairman of the Chinese Population Society, said in an interview with this reporter that only the constant such as social systems does not change, birth will not change, birth When the scale characteristics are obvious and the duration is long enough, the number of retirement population will show a corresponding change. This is a normal process for population changes. And many experts also believe that the reference to the number of birth population and other indicators, accompanied by deepening the aging of Chinese society, the expansion of the scale of retirees will be indisputable.

In fact, in the past 10 years, China has crossed the first period of fast population aging. According to the seventh national census data, in 2020, the total population of 60 and above in mainland China was 264 million, accounting for 18.7%of the total population. From the 10 years from the "six people" in 2010 to the "Seven Pu" in 2020, the increase in population 60 and over the age of 60 and above was significantly higher than the previous 10 years.

Zhai Zhenwu, a professor at the Population and Development Research Center of Renmin University of China, believes that this is mainly closely related to the population queue formed by the first peak of birth in the 1950s. During the "Fourteenth Five -Year Plan" period, the larger -scale population queue formed by the second peak of birth in the 1960s will enter the elderly.

The scale of retirement is expanding, and there are many positive factors

What impact will the increase in the retirement population bring? From the perspective of many experts who have studied population for a long time, there are challenges, but don't have to be too nervous.

Lu Jiehua said that the increase in the retirement population means that there are more pensions that the whole society needs to pay and puts forward higher requirements for the social pension service system. Population aging will also have a long -term impact on economic and social development. In addition, many people have noticed that the supply of labor has decreased in recent years. Data released by the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security show that the number of working age in China has declined since 2012, with an average annual decrease of more than 3 million. It is expected that the "14th Five -Year Plan" period will be reduced by 35 million people.

"The deepening of social aging is the law of demographic development." Original new believes that the trend of aging cannot be changed, but this phenomenon is not a problem itself. Only when it does not match the economic and social development, it is a problem. "What should pay attention to is how to further promote high -quality economic and social sustainable development while deepening aging."

Although the scale of retirees is expanding, in general, there are many positive factors.

—— Generally, it is still "rich and strong". The relevant person in charge of the National Bureau of Statistics clearly stated in the interpretation of the "Seven Persons" data in 2020 that China ’s 16-59-year-old labor age population is 880 million, and the labor population is still abundant; the average age of population is 38.8 years.

——The number of elderly people is considerable. Last year's average life expectancy of China was over 78 years old, and China did enter the "longevity era". According to the "seven-person" data in 2020, among the 60-69 years old, 60-69-year-old population accounted for 55.83%of the elderly population in China. Most of these young and elderly people have the advantages of knowledge, experience, and skills. Essence ——The educational level of elderly population has increased. At present and in the future, the elderly who have retired are mostly entered the labor market after reform and opening up. The education level and work skills have been greatly improved compared to the past. According to the "Seven Persons" data in 2020, 36.69 million people with high schools and above are of high schools and above, accounting for 13.9%, an increase of 4.98 percentage points from 10 years ago. At the same time, the average educational period for the average education of the 16-59-year-old working age in China has increased to 10.75 years. "In the past, it was simply relying on the scale of labor, and now the quality of labor is higher. It can further convert the disadvantages of structural aging into a high -quality development advantage." Lu Jiehua said.

——The social industry transformation and upgrading accelerate. On the one hand, the level of mechanization, digital industrialization, and intelligence has been greatly improved, and the industrial structure has been upgraded. "This reduces the dependence of the whole society for physical labor, and the tolerance of social employment to age is enhanced." Original new said. On the other hand, the income level of retirees has increased compared with the past, and the expansion of the consumption of elderly products and services is conducive to promoting technological progress and driving the development of elderly industries.

——China has built the world's largest social security system. As of the end of June this year, the number of basic pension insurance participants in the country reached 1.04 billion. Over the years, basic pensions across the country have continued to rise, raising 4%again this year, benefiting hundreds of millions of retirees. Sign up to enrich the social security funds and the central government's adjustment of major reform measures, such as the central government, and other major reform measures, and escort the endowment insurance fund to run smoothly and sustainable. The annual report of the National Social Security Fund announced on August 18 shows that by the end of 2021, the total assets of social security funds will exceed 3 trillion yuan, reaching 3019.81 billion yuan. The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Affairs has repeatedly emphasized that there is no problem with pensions on time.

Many experts said that actively adapting to the development trend of the population and tapping the opportunities are the focus of the future.

"Bian Fu, Bian, Strong and Elder", turn challenge as an opportunity

Tianjin dialect, Northeast dialect, Shandong dialect ... voice search, dialect can understand. Recently, a well -known domestic shopping website has launched the dialect voice search function, which allows the elderly to avoid the troubles of handwriting and typing during online shopping, and achieve easy shopping. There are no advertisements, no pop -ups, clean interfaces, and clear operations. A variety of mobile apps have also launched a "old version" tailored for the elderly groups, making the elderly more convenient to operate smartphones. Right now, more and more enterprises and brands have opened up new development space around the "silver -haired economy".

This is a microcosm of the aging trend of population aging. The "Fourteenth Five -Year Plan" proposes to implement a national strategy of actively responding to the aging of the population. At present, relevant policy adjustments have been introduced or planted.

While the number of retirees has caused heated discussions, the topic of delaying retirement has attracted attention again. In recent decades, most countries have improved their retirement age to varying degrees. At present, the retirement age of major world economies is generally over 65 years old. The "Fourteenth Five -Year Plan" proposes that in accordance with the principles of small step adjustment, elastic implementation, classification promotion, and overall planning, etc., the legal retirement age is gradually delayed, and the full use of human resources will be promoted.

The relevant person in charge of the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security previously introduced that it was studying the specific reform plan in accordance with relevant departments. The plan must be drawn from the practices and experiences of international access, and we must fully consider the situation of realistic national conditions, cultural traditions, and historical revolution. It will fully absorb the opinions and suggestions from all walks of life, obtain the largest number of conventions, and ensure that the scientific scientific and smooth implementation of the plan will be implemented.

In response to the problem of retirees that some people are worried about, the system is constantly improving. In April this year, the General Office of the State Council announced the "Opinions on Promoting the Development of Personal Pension", marking the official introduction of the third pillar personal pension system. Participating in personal pensions can add another pension accumulation on the basis of the first and second pillars of endowment insurance to further improve the level of income and quality of life. At the press conference in the second quarter of this year, the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security made it clear that it will formulate supporting policies with relevant departments to determine the cities for the personal pension system.

Ou Xiaoli, director of the Social Development Department of the National Development and Reform Commission, recently stated that from the international horizontal comparison, the current process of aging China's aging is generally comparable to economic development. With the continuous improvement of people's lives, China's aging will further deepen. In the middle of this century, it will reach the level of major developed countries, but then it will be fully established to build a socialist modern power. Therefore, this is a historical process of "Bian Fu, Bian, Strong and Elderly". When facing the challenge, it contains huge development opportunities. factor.

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