Xia Chun: The macro hedge "Tiger King" is gone, how did he cultivate the "little tiger" ｜ Xia Chun column

Xia Chun | Cube, everyone talks about column authors

According to Bloomberg report, Julia Robertson, nicknamed "Tiger" in the fund world, died at the age of 90. Robertson established a Tiger Fund at the age of 48 at the age of 48. The initial capital scale was $ 8.8 million. By the mid -1990s, the highest peak grew to about $ 22 billion, with an average return of 32%. One, the other two are George Soros and Michael Steinhardt.

Robertson and SOROS's most eye-catching record was to jointly defeat British pounds in 1992 and the currency and stock markets of East Asian countries during the East Asian financial crisis from 1997-1998. However, the scale of Robertson and SOROS was not large, and at the time they mainly laid the funds in the hot U.S. stock market and listed them as the culprit of the East Asian financial crisis. Unlike market public opinion, the financial academic community has a clear understanding of this issue. For friends who are interested in this topic, can I read my article "Soros is the black warrior of the East Asian financial crisis? "

It is worth mentioning that both Robertson and SOROS are famous for macro -hedging, but in fact, both of them started with a long -short stock (Michael Steinhardt also created a glory in the stock market).

However, in the 1980s and 1990s, the macroeconomic wind rose, currency, interest rates, and commodities had huge investment space, providing the two of them with excellent geniuses to show the market. In the late 1990s, with the Russian crisis, the euro zone was about to be established, and the global macroeconomic stability, the two of the two in the macro hedge market gradually faded out, which directly caused them to close the fund empire they created by themselves. Dark, at that time, Robertson's Tiger Fund was short -term short technology stocks and caused huge losses and customer redemption. SOROS experience was even more boss. When the short finding effect was bleak, it was changed to do more. Then wealth management for customers, just manage assets for their own family.

After Robertson withdrew from the market, he changed to another way to participate in the capital market, that is, the fund manager of the Tiger Fund was encouraged to establish its own portal. He changed to angel investors and invested capital for these newly established funds. As a result, he succeeded. Because of this, Robertson's "Tiger" nickname was changed to "Tiger King", while his disciples and grandsons became famous "Tigers", the two most widely known are Bill HWANG and Chase Coleman.

In March 2021, Bill HWANG suddenly became a household name. Because of the high -leveraged heavy stocks, it was hit by a series of regulatory storms. He lost $ 15 billion on that day, and his fund Empire Archegos Capital fell down. On the contrary, Coleman, who also in the heavy -duty technology stocks, exits at a high time at a high point. At that time, I wrote a special article describing Robertson's legendary stories and the rise of the "Little Tigers".

As a professor who has long studied and taught the hedge fund industry and strategy at the Department of Finance of the University of Hong Kong, Robertson and other talents of investment have inspired generations of students. Seeing the news of Robertson's death today, I decided to repost this old article in April 2021 to commemorate Robertson!

How does "Tiger King" cultivate the "Little Tiger"?

Recently, US Treasury bond yields have risen, technology stocks have been adjusted, domestic training supervision and supervision of external schools, China -US diplomatic talks, and the United States announced the final revised version of the "Foreign Companies' Accountability Act". A local perfection storm has defeated a few US and Chinese -conservation funds ARCHEGOS Capital and Teng Yue Capital. Julia Robertson, and has a common title "Tiger Cubs", as for the rumored "Tiger Club" does not exist.

When the media exclaimed "the biggest single -day loss in human history", I can only remember the story described by the book "More Money than God". Robertson likes the fund manager of athletes very much, and often leads team members to conduct field physical training such as rock climbing or kayak. Once the training items were suspended in the wind and rain, using the seat belt to cross a cable bridge that across the valley, and below the cliff with hundreds of feet of cliffs below.

Naturally, the successful people will realize the spirit of the fearless investor and adventurer on the boss, but the accident will inevitably appear. Some people lose their hands from Suoqiao and are pulled by the seat belt. It was suddenly discovered that he actually had a seat belt, and the safety buckle was about to be decoupled, so everyone was busy starting the assistance. The picture of this description is so strong that I will never forget it after reading it. The two who left everyone are the two who fell from Suoqiao this time. They will be rescued after being rescued.

The deepest impression of Robertson and Tiger Fund to the world is that the quantum funds of George Soros are almost short in 1985, shorted the pound in 1992, and the currency of Asia -Pacific countries in 1998, which was labeled as "macro hedge". Fund, but unlike SOROS, Robertson's most master is the company's fundamental research and extensive connections in the industry, and implement the stock long -short strategy of stocks with value investment.

From the $ 8 million when it was established in May 1980 to $ 22 billion in the heyday of August 1998, the annualized return rate of the Tiger Fund after deducting the cost was 31.7%, which was much higher than the 12.7%of the S & P index. Only-1.4%and -9.3%were obtained in 1987 and 1994, respectively.

In addition to the ability of individuals and teams, Robertson has also caught up with the most golden stage of the development of US stocks. On the one hand, the US 401 (K) retirement pension plan was launched in 1981 and gradually became popular. The proportion of household configuration in the United States has continued to rise; on the other hand, the stock market has risen straight under the support of corporate mergers and acquisitions, which continues to benefit stock funds such as tigers.

The power of Robertson is that under the market's market, it can still find out the stocks with poor performance. Taking 1984 as an example, the S & P index rose only 6.3%, while the yield of Tiger Fund reached 20.2%, more than half of the short position.

However, in the investment community, success may be the mother of failure. Robertson is short -haugal to the US dollar, the British pound and the Asia -Pacific currency smoothly, and compares the loss of losses when he later short -term yen. In the 1980s, he was short -term in individual stocks. At that time, the foam was hard, and the bigger and bigger.

The Tiger Fund lost losses in 1998 to 2000. In addition, the customer continued to withdraw money. The fund size fell from US $ 22 billion to $ 6.5 billion. After Robertson's pain, he decided to wash his hands from the rivers and lakes.

It is a pity that Robertson returns funds to customers, and the time to exit is exactly in March 2000, and this is exactly the beginning of the Internet bubble. In the next two years, the Nasdaq index fell 75%. If the Tiger Fund Carrying it will become the ultimate big winner.

By the way, SOROS is more flexible than Robertson. At the beginning, the Internet company was unsuccessful, so he decisively turned to make more, poured oil on the foam fire, and then exited before the foam was burst. But even so, SOROS returned the funds to customers in July of that year and reorganized quantum funds into family offices.

Earlier, although Robertson's investment performance was comparable to SOROS, the niche was always behind. Robertson had never understood before, and finally lost at this moment. However, even if the losses from 1998-2000, the annualized return rate of the Tiger Fund's fee was still as high as 26%. In the 20-year investment career, it has achieved positive returns in 16 years. Obviously, Robertson's victory over the market depends on strength, not luck.

The "Little Tiger" expands becomes a "tiger nest"

And another that can confirm Robertson's strength, of course, the performance of the "Little Tiger Team" he taught by himself. Before the Tiger Fund was closed in 2000, some members founded their own hedge funds after quit. After the Tiger Fund was closed, Robertson turned his office into a fund manager's entrepreneurial incubator, providing seed funds for 29 funds, including Bill Hwang's Tiger Asia and Chase Coleman Tiger.

It is very valuable that although Robertson defeated Maicheng in the investment in technology companies, he encouraged the "Little Tigers" to invest in technology. Tiger Asia and Tigers are top masters of investment technology. In fact, the first name of the tiger is Tiger Technology.

A statistics in 2008 show that the former employees of the 36 Tiger Fund set up a fund and managed a total of $ 100 billion in funds. The names of many funds contain tigers. In addition to tigers Asia, tigers worldwide, there are also tiger Pacific, Tiger Legatus, and so on.

Half of the 36 "Little Tigers" submitted monthly income data to Hennessee, Hennessee, which is constructed for the "rich and enemy country". It was 11.9%, including the yield of 2008 -20%. During the same period, US stocks have experienced two bubbles. The S & P index annual yield is -5.3%, while Hennessee's comprehensive hedge fund index annualized yield is 4.8%, of which the annualized yield of stock multi-short funds is 4.4% Essence The more powerful "Little Tiger" is the annualized volatility of 2000-2008, and the annualized volatility of the S & P was 15.2%at the same time. That is to say, the "small tiger" has higher income and lower risks. It is worth mentioning that not every "Little Tiger" member has been successful. Hennessee's data contains two funds for bankruptcy and liquidation, which instead reduces the "survivor deviation".

The scale and number of the "Little Tigers" have continued to expand in recent years. A statistics at the end of 2019 show that Tiger Fund has hatched 175 funds. Robertson and men provided seed funds through their own or other funds, and founded 73 first -generation "Little Tigers" (42 of which were still active, and 31 stopped operations because of general performance or retirement of the founder). The first generation of 31 members founded 90 second -generation "Grand Cubs", and 8 members of the second generation founded the third generation of Great Grand Cubs. As a result, a new term "Tiger Den" was created in the industry to describe Robertson and his disciples and grandchildren.

In the first generation of "Little Tigers", the leader Viking Global Investors and Shumway Capital Partners are also funds that cultivate the most second -generation "Little Tigers". In addition, Tiger Global, Tiger Asia, Lone Pine Capital, Maverick Capital are the best in the "Tiger Nest". Although most of the first generation of the small tigers, like the master, focuses on the long and short strategies of stocks, the strategies adopted by the latecomers gradually become more diversified.

It is no exaggeration to say that Robertson's records are impeccable in the hedging fund industry and excavation and cultivation of talents. In this regard, he far surpasses SOROS.

Who is the strongest "Little Tiger" member?

What's more interesting is that Robertson himself did not stop investing after closing the fund in 2000. According to the "Fortune" magazine reported in early 2008, from 2001 to 2007, his personal investment cumulative income was 404%, of which 77%were as high as 77%in 2007. It surpassed the 70%yield record set by the Tiger Fund in 1997.

In 2007, the average yield of 34 "Little Tigers" was 34%, of which HWANG's tiger Asia had a pre-yield of 55%, and the annualized return rate from 2001-2007 was 40.4%. The annualized return rate from 2002-2012 was 16%).

What is better than this performance is the global tiger founded by Coleman. The annualized return rate from 2001-2007 was 43.7%, and 91%in 2007, which is much higher than that of the S & P index in 2007. The total yield of 5.5%and more than 3,000 hedge funds is 12.5%.

Although the time for Tiger's global establishment in 2001 is not conducive to technology stocks, fortunately, Coleman sees three Chinese companies: Sina, Sohu, and Netease. After buying at the end of 2002, it has appreciated several times in mid -2003. The real Internet era has just begun. Lucky has always been accompanied by tigers worldwide, and hugging the market leader is the key to its success.

Tiger Asia was reorganized into Archegos Capital after being involved in insider trading in 2012, and the subsequent performance was well known. In the investment philosophy of Robertson to the "Little Tiger", one is a decentralized risk, "avoid betting in a gambling game more than 5%of the capital." Recent incidents have shown that some members of the "Little Tigers" have forgotten this important principle. Data show that the leverage ratio of stock multi -short funds usually does not exceed 1.5 times, and the leverage with a 5 times of HWANG is indeed a heavy price.

Two weeks before HWANG's newsstand news, stick tennis players were born. Coleman, 45, just handed over a shining transcript.

Although hedge funds have been manifested as a whole in the past 10 years, the S & P index has been continuously ordered, and the long-term funds of Tiger Global have obtained 21%of the annualized yields in the past 20 years (2001-2020). The annual annualized yield of multi -headed funds is 22%. Coleman obviously learned the essence of Robertson's investment. In the environment of the global stock market in 2018, the positive returns of Tiger's global gains basically come from short positions.

Tiger's global current scale is about $ 50 billion (about half of which is a private equity fund). In 2020, Tiger brought $ 10.4 billion in income to customers worldwide, ranking first in the industry.Coleman has deservedly became the best disciple and best investment in Robertson.But both HWANG and Coleman have one thing in common. They have learned the master's goodness and good contributions in charity donation.

Intern editor: Xu Xilin | Audit: Li Zhen | Director: Wan Junwei

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