The central bank has lowered 1 -year and 5 -year loan market quotation interest rates

At 9:15 am on August 22, the People's Bank of China authorized the National Bank of China Interbank Borrowing Center to announce that the loan market quotation interest rate (LPR) on August 22, 2022 was: 1 -year LPR was 3.65%, and LPR of 5 years or above It is 4.3%. The above LPR is valid before the LPR is released next time.

Compared with the previous LPR offer, the 1 -year LPR and LPR more than 5 -year LPR have been lowered, respectively, respectively 5 basis points and 15 basis points. Earlier, on May 20, the 5 -year LPR ushered in the maximum decline, and the 5 -year LPR downgraded 15 basis points in the 5th year to 4.45%; the 1 -year LPR was flat with the previous month's quotation at 3.70%.

This time LPR is reduced in market expectations. On August 15, 2022, the People's Bank of China launched a 400 billion yuan medium -term loan convenience (MLF) operation. The MLF bid rate was 2.75%, a decrease of 10 basis points. The MLF interest rate was reduced in August, which means that the foundation of LPR quotation in the month of the month has changed. In addition, the recent bank capital costs have also settled faster. In August, LPR quotation was reduced to expected. Considering that the recent reflection of the property market, the mortgage market tilted towards the lender. The market view generally believes that the possibility of a 5 -year LPR quotation of more than 10 basis points has increased significantly.

Wen Bin, chief economist of China Minsheng Bank, said that in the context of residents 'revenue and a large debt burden, reducing policy interest rates and guiding LPR reduction, helping to release bonus bonus for deposit mortgage loans, and enhance the expectations of residents' consumption. LPR reduction above 5 years will improve the real estate financing chain, but as for the specific improvement, it still needs to continue to observe and other supporting measures. It is low, but if the subsequent economic recovery is not as good as expected, the repair of consumption and investment continues to be weak, and the 1 -year LPR interest rate will still have room for reduction.

What is the next monetary policy trend? In the "China Regional Financial Operation Report (2022)" issued by the central bank in July, the next step should continue to deepen LPR reform, improve the LPR quotation mechanism, and continuously improve the quality of LPR quotation, so that the central bank's policy interest rates to loan interest rates and loan interest rates and loan interest rates and The transmission of deposit interest rates is smoother.

Wen Bin believes that under the policy tone of the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate hikes in the later period, and the policy tone of“ I ’m dominated”, the possibility of cutting interest rates again does not rule out. The probability of decline in the third quarter is not high, but if the real estate financing has improved in the fourth quarter, the process of wide credit is accelerated. With the recovery of structural liquidity shortages, it provides long -term liquidity to the banking system and further reduces liabilities for liabilities. The cost is not ruled out that 0.25 percentage points will be performed in a timely manner.

(Beijing Daily Client)

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