Fengkou Think Tank | One -year and five -year LPR diverted down. What signals are released?

Liu Xiao, chief reporter of Fengkou Finance Liu Xiao

The People's Bank of China authorized the inter -bank interbank borrowing center announced that the loan market quotation interest rate (LPR) on August 22, 2022 was: one -year LPR was 3.65%, and the LPR of more than 5 years was 4.3%. The above LPR is valid before the LPR is released next time. Previously, the loan market quotation interest rate on July 20, 2022 was: one -year LPR was 3.7%, and 4.45%of LPR above 5 years.

The one -year and five -year LPR double -reduced. Many experts from the Trone Finance and Economics said that the quotation is in line with market expectations, showing that a new round of steady growth measures are increasing. Keep repair momentum.

Direct support of the property market is the focus

The People's Bank of China authorized the inter -bank interbank borrowing center announced that the loan market quotation interest rate (LPR) on August 22, 2022 was: one -year LPR was 3.65%, and the LPR of more than 5 years was 4.3%. Data show that in December 2021 and January this year, the central bank has reduced the one -year LPR 5 and 10 BPs, and then stabilized at 3.70%. After the five -year variety was lowered 5bp in January this year, it was 5BP, and it was 5BP. The monthly lowered 15 BP to 4.45%.

The Politburo Conference held on July 28 proposed to stabilize the real estate market, insisting that the house is used to live and is not used for speculation. Real local government responsibilities, keeping over the building and stabilizing the people's livelihood. On August 18, the State Council Executive Committee proposed to improve the formation of market -oriented interest rate formation and conduction mechanisms, give play to the guidance of the loan market quotation interest rate, support the recovery of valid demand for credit, and promote the reduction of comprehensive financing costs of enterprises and personal consumer credit costs.

It is worth noting that the lowering of LPR more than 5 -year LPR is conducive to reducing the pressure on personal mortgage. Taking a mortgage loan with a period of 1 million and a period of 30 years as an example, if you choose the method of repayment of the monthly equal amount, the 5 -year LPR reduction will be reduced by 15 basis points, which can reduce the monthly repayment amount by nearly 88 yuan. Reduce nearly 32,000 yuan.

"Under the circumstances where real estate sales have weakened again, residents' willingness to increase leverage, and the pressure of steady growth is still large, the quotation of LPR more than 5 years will be greatly reduced by 15bp again, which will help narrowing the gap between the interest rates of housing loans in previous years. Promoting the process of wide credit. "Wen Bin, chief economist of Minsheng Bank, said in an interview with Trone Finance that in an environment where the real estate market is still sluggish, LPR downsize the reduction of mortgage interest rates, becoming a reversal market expectation, promoting the property market, and promoting the property market The important part of recovery. The reduction of LPR also helps reduce the interest rate of stock mortgages, delay the rhythm of the residents' reduction of leverage, and increase consumption expectations under the savings of mortgage interest, help consumption recovery.

Dongfang Jincheng chief macro analyst Wang Qing told Fengkou Finance that the August 5 -year LPR quotation has decreased greater, and the one -year decrease is smaller, indicating that the targeted support of the property market is the focus The key to the macroeconomic market. "The current residential mortgage interest rate is still relatively high, and the 5 -year LPR quotation needs to be reduced to a significant decline to pave the way for the further downlink of the mortgage interest rate." Wang Qing said.

Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher at the Everbright Bank Financial Market Department, believes that the LPR interest rate is reduced to guide financial institutions to reduce the cost of personal and enterprise financing, stabilize the market expectations of the market for economic recovery, and boost personal and enterprise financing needs. Among them, the 5 -year LPR interest rate will be reduced, which will directly reduce the cost of buying housing in the manufacturing industry and residents' commercial housing.

Pang Yan, chief economist and director of the research department of the Zhongliang Federation Greater China, told Fengkou Finance. The important task of protecting people's livelihood and stability can not only reduce the cost and monthly supply of home buyers, promote banks to further reduce loan interest rates, actively release loans to meet the reasonable demand for house purchase, but also promote developers' repayments, help ensure that houses are delivered, and gradually reversed to reverse. The complex situation of credit and real estate, reversing the market's expectations for the economy and real estate, the building market is expected to recover.

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Policy interest rates and flexible adjustment space

A few days ago, the People's Bank of China launched a 400 billion yuan medium -term loan convenience (MLF) operation. The MLF operation interest rate was reduced by 10 basis points to 2.75%, and the 7 -day reverse repurchase interest rate simultaneously reduced 10 basis points to 2%, exceeding market expectations. It is worth noting that due to the large amount of MLF expiration in September to December, in the current environment with rich liquidity, many experts predict that subsequent MLFs may continue to shrink.

"In the second half of the year, the LPR quotation still has a certain amount of adjustment, especially the 5-year LPR quotation will have a significant decline in 15-20 basis points." On the one hand, with the fluctuations of the epidemic, consumption restoration in the second half of the year will be milder. Real estate will also run low for a period of time. In addition, under the shadow of global economic recession, there is a slowdown in exports that have previously stimulated economic growth. These factors means that the policy may further increase the stable growth, focusing on stimulating the overall demand in China. On the other hand, the domestic price situation in the second half of the year is generally expected to maintain stability. The structural inflation driven by the rise in pork prices is difficult to cause comprehensive and significant increase in prices. The core CPI that deduct food and energy prices will continue to maintain a low level of below 2.0%(August is in August is for it. 0.8%), will not form a large constraint on future macro policies. At the same time, in the process of tightening the policy tightening in the second half of the year, the Federal Reserve and other overseas central banks will consider the risk of economic recession brought by it, and the pace of policy tightening may slow down. This means that the external constraints of loose domestic policies are also decreasing. Wang Qing said that at the moment of consumption and investment restoration in the second half of the year, the policy interest rate (MLF interest rate) also has room for flexible adjustment. In terms of LPR quotation, the August 1 -year LPR quotation was reduced, and the yield of 10 -year Treasury bonds was declining, which will drive the bank's deposit interest rate to reduce the price, thereby driving the quotation to compress the LPR quotation plus points.

Pang Ye pointed out that this year there are still more than 2.5 trillion yuan of MLF expiration, so in the future, the sequels may continue to be approved in a moderate time. Considering that the main force of the monetary policy is to maintain a reasonable liquidity and maintain the steady and moderate growth of monetary credit, the focus is to promote the transformation of wide currency to wide credit. , Adjusting the more convenient measures of banking funds.

On April 20, the staff assembled new energy vehicles in the car assembly factory of the BYD Caotang Industrial Park in Xi'an. Xinhua News Agency

A new round of steady growth measures are increasing

"The recovery of medium and long -term credit demand for enterprises is still slow. In July, it increased by 147.8 billion yuan year -on -year, and the growth rate of fixed asset investment also decreased by 0.4 percentage points." Wang Yunjin, a senior researcher at the Zhixin Investment Research Institute, told Fengkou Finance that monetary policy actively acts, and the monetary policy is actively acting. The goal of expanding the demand is more clear. It is necessary to further play the reform effectiveness and guidance of the loan market quotation interest rate, reduce the cost of corporate financing, and achieve the purpose of expanding credit and stable growth.

Wen Bin believes that the policy is expected to continue to maintain continuity in the second half of the year. While increasing credit support, it focuses on increasing wide credit through policy banks' new credit and infrastructure investment funds. He said that under the tone of the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate hike rhythm and the“ master ”of monetary policy, the possibility of re -cutting the interest rate cut again. The probability of decline in the third quarter is not high, but if the real estate financing has improved in the fourth quarter, the process of wide credit is accelerated. With the recovery of structural liquidity shortages, it provides long -term liquidity to the banking system and further reduces liabilities for liabilities. The cost is not ruled out that 0.25 percentage points will be performed in a timely manner.

Wang Qing told Fengkou Finance that short -term fluctuations will not change the general trend of the macroeconomic gradually returning to the normal growth level in the second half of the year. Following the reduction of interest rates at monetary policy, the steady growth of fiscal policy and industrial policy will also be further increased. Wang Qing believes that the downward settlement of LPR quotes in August reflects the guidance of policy and interest rate cuts, and a new round of faster low -down trends will have a new round of low -reduction interest rates, which in turn drives the rebound of valid credit demand and supports the steady growth policy with wide credit. This means that after the implementation of a package of the macroeconomic market in May, a new round of steady growth measures are increasing, and its focus is on the supply end of the logistics blocking point and promoting the re -production and re -production. The macroeconomic needs such as consumption and investment.

"Recently announced data show that financial institutions are also facing the problem of weak real economy financing. Financial institutions can help stimulate financing to recover through moderately. Restore. "Zhou Maohua told Fengkou Finance that from the current domestic real economy facing difficulties and challenges, the interest rate cut policy needs to cooperate with policies such as finance and industry to alleviate the effect of corporate operation. In addition, it is necessary to accurately prevent epidemic prevention, implement measures to ensure stability, help the enterprise, help enterprises, stabilize growth policies, maintain stability of prices, continue to improve employment, and steadily recover from domestic demand.

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