Experts evaluate LPR "double drop": take into account the stabilization real estate and prevention of profit

Under the influence of MLF policy interest rate reduction, bank liability side pressure reduction, and insufficient physical financing demand, the August LPR quotation interest rate was reduced, and based on the comprehensive consideration of stable land and prevention, the one -year and 5 -year LPR realization was realized. Asymmetric down. This will play an active role in reducing the cost of reducing the cost of real economy, boosting the confidence of market entities, and promoting the recovery of effective demand for credit.

1. In August, LPR realized asymmetric reduction, taking into account the stabilization of real estate and anti -over -profit behavior

In August, LPR realized asymmetric lowering, 5 basis points in 1 year, and 15 basis points for more than 5 years.

In August, the MLF interest rate was reduced by 10bp, and August LPR realized the reduction in market expectations and historical laws. From the perspective of the decline, the 1 -year LPR downgrade is small, which should mainly originate from the current market short -term interest rate. The overall market is at a lower level. If you continue to guide the 1 -year LPR reduction, it will easily exacerbate the arbitrage behavior of the enterprise; and 5 years Following May, the LPR of the period has once again lowered 15bp, mainly because the current stabilization of real estate is high, interest rates still have room for reduction, and the demand for medium- and long -term loan needs to be boosted. The financing cost of the enterprise increases its willingness to increase leverage.

From the perspective of the 1 -year LPR quotation, under the comprehensive consideration of demand and anti -liter, this time the 5BP was slightly reduced. Earlier, the level of 3.7%has been low. If you consider increasing the contradiction between the credit supply and demand, the bank's loan interest rate point is dropped to high -quality enterprises under the "deduction of the investment", the interest rate of the loan rate of the mobile fund may be lower, and even some regular deposits Prices form upside down. In this case, if the one -year LPR continues to be significantly reduced, it is easy to exacerbate the arbitrage behavior of the enterprise and deviate from the original intention of the policy. And from historical data, since the LPR reform in August 2019, the cumulative 1 -year LPR has a cumulative increase of more than 5 years LPR. After this decline, the 1 -year LPR has lowered 60bp, and the total 55bp has been reduced by 55bp over 5 years or above. Essence

From the perspective of the 5 -year LPR quotation, under the influence of factors such as stabilizing real estate, wide credit, and difference in profit, this time, it has been significantly reduced by 15bp. The decline in May 15BP exceeded market expectations, driving the sales of real estate sales; A sharply lowered 15bp will help narrowing the gap between the interest rate of the mortgage loan in previous years and boost the wide credit process. Considering that the Politburo Conference requires the "stabilizing real estate market" and August 18th, the State will propose a "improvement of market -oriented interest rate formation and conduction mechanism, give full play to the guidance of the loan market quotation interest rate, support the recovery of valid demand for credit, promote the reduction of comprehensive financing costs of enterprises and the cost of comprehensive financing and the cost of corporate financing and the cost of comprehensive financing and the cost "Personal consumer credit costs", mortgage interest rates need to be further reduced to historical lows. With reference to the lowest level of history, the interest rate of the first home loan at the end of 2008 reached 4.158%(5.94%*0.7), the average interest rate of the weighted personal housing loan was 4.34%, and the current two indicators were 4.25%and 4.62%. Lower space.

2. Under the influence of multi -factors, the LPR reduction in August is down as scheduled

(1) In August, the MLF interest rate was reduced, and the foundation of LPR quotation changed

Because the LPR quotation is linked to the MLF interest rate, in the case of MLF interest rate down 10bp on August 15, the price foundation of LPR in August changed downward, and eventually drove the loan interest rate to reduce.

After sorting out previous quotations, since the LPR reform landing (August 2019-August 2022), LPR changes have changed 8 times. Among them, in the case of MLF interest rates that have not changed, reducing the comprehensive financing costs of banks with the reform of references and deposit interest rate pricing, thereby achieving LPR downgrade to varying degrees. Stepping down, the 1Y-LPR and MLF interest rates basically changed the same amplitude. The decline in 5Y-LPR in stabilizing the stable real estate interest rates was basically halved, but it increased by the decline in stimulating real estate financing demand.

It shows that changes in the policy interest rate of central banks will have a more direct and effective impact on LPR changes. At the same time, in addition to MLF and other policy interest rates, it is also necessary to look at the impact of bank costs and loan demand side on the increase. In different economic, monetary policies, regulatory policies, and market liquidity environments, banks' capital costs, risk costs, and capital supply and demand are different, which will have an important impact on LPR adding points, which will then comprehensively affect the LPR of policy interest rates, forming a different difference More market -oriented and refined loan quotation interest rates.

(2) The cost pressure of the bank liabilities is reduced, creating conditions for LPR reduction

Since the beginning of this year, the pressure on the bank's debt is reduced, and there is still room for pressure to drop. Mainly comes from the following aspects:

First, the cost of market -oriented liabilities such as interbank deposits continues to decline. Since April of this year, under the coordination of monetary policy and fiscal policy, the market liquidity has always been abundant, and the rate of interest rates and the return on deposits of the same industry has continued to decline. In early August, the yield yield rate (AAA) fell below 2%of the 1 -year interbank deposit list, and it remained at a lower level of 1.91%on August 18, which was a significant decrease of 70bp from a high point at the beginning of the year, which was largely reduced to a large extent. The pressure on the bank liabilities.

Second, the scale and yield of structural deposits are declining. According to central bank data, as of the end of June 2022, the balance of structural deposits of Chinese national banks was 5.56 trillion yuan, a decrease of 4.85%month -on -month and a decrease of 7.99%year -on -year, the lowest level this year. Among them, the scale of personal structural deposits and unit structural deposits of large banks decreased by 10.16%and 6.84%, respectively, and a decrease of greater than small and medium -sized banks. At the same time, the high -cost structural deposit yield also continued to decline. The average expected maximum rate of return in July was 3.49%, a decrease of 9bp from the previous month, and a decrease of 148bp from the highest point. Third, structural tools are added and reducing the preparation coverage, all of which have a certain cost reduction effect. Since the beginning of this year, low -cost structural policy tools have actively "doing addition", carbon emission reduction support tools, support for coal cleaning and efficient use of special re -loan, scientific and technological innovation special loan, inclusive pension special loan, and transportation and logistics special re -loan amounts, respectively It reached 800 billion yuan, 30 billion yuan, 200 billion yuan, 40 billion yuan, and 100 billion yuan, the interest rates were 1.75%, the larger loan interest rate of the small -scale agricultural support small reinforcement was 2%, and the central bank was 60%of the loan principal. Or 100%of low -cost funding support, which allows the entity while also helps reduce the cost of bank liabilities. In addition, on April 13th, the country often encourages large banks with higher levels of preparation levels to reduce the preparation coverage in an orderly manner. Reduce interest and non -interest income to the entity further.

(3) Insufficient physical financing needs, the contradiction between credit supply and demand has increased the LPR reduction

At present, some urban epidemic conditions have been repeated, and enterprises' production and operations have been affected to some extent. At the same time, the real estate market has resurrected. Enterprises and residents will continue to be sluggish. The credit structure continues this year's poor situation. The volume of the bills is obvious, the credit is "front low and high", and the stability of the monthly period is not strong. The contradiction between supply and demand in the field of credit has further increased, prompting the new loan interest rate to continue to decline.

First, from the perspective of economic fundamentals, in July, the manufacturing PMI fell 1.2 percentage points to 49%again, and fell below the 50%of the Rongku line. The high field of prosperity focused on the direction of the infrastructure and automobiles with policy stimulus. superior. Macro data in July showed that the growth rate of industrial production, consumption and investment was completely lower than last month, showing that the foundation of my country's economic recovery needs to be stable.

Second, from the perspective of financial data, in July, the "second collapse" of credit and social finances. In the month, RMB loan increased by 679 billion yuan, a significant increase of 404.2 billion yuan year -on -year; Essence In July, the total amount of financial data and structure were not good, and the overall weaker than the seasonal nature, indicating that the investment willingness of the physical department was still weak. Credit demand has continued to be weak since August, and the low -level operating rate of bills has not been fully repaired after the effective demand for vitality in the economy and the impact of the epidemic.

Third, from the perspective of the real estate financing chain, as a key link of wide credit, the real estate development loan and mortgage loans in the second quarter have not performed well, and the overall downward pressure continues to increase. The weaker again, residents' willingness to leverage continues to be sluggish. In this context, the average interest rate of the new corporate loan loan was reduced to 4.16%in June, a decrease of 42bp from the beginning of the year, a new low of statistics; the average interest rate of personal housing loans in June was 4.62%, a significant decrease of 101bp from the beginning of the year. Although the interest rate of new mortgages has decreased significantly, compared with corporate loan interest rates, it is still 46bp higher. By reducing loan interest rates, there is still room for operating demand for residents to purchase houses. Compared with the new loan, the interest rate of the stock mortgage is still at a high level, which in turn increases the mortgage early repayment rate. Under the replacement of the incremental incremental incremental incremental incremental incremental increase, reducing stock and lower interest rates, the stability of the real estate chain financing has weakened, which directly affects the foundation of wide credit.

3. In August, LPR reduction helps to reduce costs and promote demand, and boosts confidence to stabilize the economy

The reduction of the new LPR quotation interest rate will play an active role in reducing the cost of real economy financing, boosting the confidence of market entities, and promoting the recovery of valid demand for credit.

(1) 1 -year LPR reduction helps reduce the cost of financing in the real economy, stimulates credit demand, activates the vitality of micro -subject, and supports the real economy

Financial data shows that in July, short -term loans decreased by 354.6 billion yuan, a year -on -year decrease of 96.9 billion yuan; enterprise medium- and long -term loans increased by 147.8 billion yuan year -on -year; corporate bond financing increased by 73.4 billion yuan, a significant decrease of 235.7 billion yuan year -on -year. Obviously shrink.

The 1 -year LPR reduction will also drive the decline of loan interest rates at other periods. On the one hand, it will help further reduce the cost of financing of enterprises, boosting the expected confidence, helping enterprises to accelerate the recovery and stable operation, and drive the growth of investment repair; on the other hand,, on the other hand,, on the other hand,, on the other hand,, on the other hand, It will also continue to reduce the cost of social financing, reduce the financing cost of corporate debt issuance and debt repayment, and maintain stability of various financing channels.

(2) The decline in LPR above 5 years is large, which helps to reverse market expectations, promote the recovery of the property market, and help consumption recovery

On the one hand, the reduction of LPR helps reduce the cost of buying a house, enhance the willingness to buy a house, and boost real estate sales. Among the internal needs, the large -scale, upstream and downstream chain, and the real estate industry that is closely related to the residential balance sheet is still important to stabilize the economy, which is related to the effects and processes of wide credit landing. In the current environment where the real estate market is still sluggish, the LPR reduction has been used to drive the reduction of mortgage interest rates, which has become an important part of reversing market expectations and promoting the recovery of the property market. On the other hand, the reduction of LPR also helps reduce the interest rate of the stock loan, delay the rhythm of the residents' reduction of leverage, and increase consumption expectations under the savings of mortgage interests to help consumption rebate. Under the influence of factors such as high existing mortgage interest rates, upside -down mortgage and commercial loan interest rates, asset yields and liabilities, the gap between asset yields and liabilities has continued to expand, this year, residents have a strong willingness to repay the mortgage in advance. And starting from January 1 next year, the effect of the cumulative LPR this year will be reflected in the monthly supply of residents. With the increase in interest and disposable income, it is expected to boost the consumption expectations of residents, so as to expand the domestic demand and boost the economic belt Come a series of "positive feedback".

(Zhang Liyun, Chief Economist, China Minsheng Bank Chief Economist, Zhang Liyun, Director of the Financial Market Research Center of China Minsheng Bank)

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