The interest rate of the first house dropped to 4.1%?Industry insiders evaluate LPR downward: Excessive intensity expectations

The new phase of the loan market quotation interest rate (LPR) was released this morning, and within 3 months, LPR was lowered twice. According to the website of the People's Bank of China, the loan market quotation interest rate (LPR) on August 22, 2022 was: 1 -year LPR was 3.65%, which was 5 base points from the previous month; Last month fell 15 basis points.

Picture source: the official website of the People's Bank of China

What pays attention to the market is that on August 15th, the central bank's open market launched a 1 -year MLF operation of 400 billion yuan and a 7 -day reverse repurchase operation of 2 billion yuan. Both decreased 10 basis points from the previous time. "The MLF interest rate is the reference benchmark for LPR pricing. This time, the high probability of LPR will also decrease in August." Previously, a senior real estate market analyst judged reporters.

Li Yujia, chief researcher at the Housing Policy Research Center of Guangdong Provincial Planning Institute, believes that the interest rate cut "unexpectedly, but exceeded expectations." Prior to the announcement of this morning, the market is generally expected that this one -year LPR will be reduced by 10 basis points, and LPRs of more than 5 years will exceed 10 basis points. "The five -year downgrade of 15 basis points this time has obviously exceeded market expectations."

According to the regulations of the Central Bank and the Banking Insurance Regulatory Commission, the lower limit of the interest rate of the first house of commercial personal housing loan is adjusted to not less than lower than the corresponding period of loan market quotation. And this 5 -year LPR drops, it means that the lower limit of the first interest rate can be further dropped to 4.1%.

"This interest rate can be said to be the lowest time I have encountered in the past 10 years," said a new house agent in Huadu District, Guangzhou. "At present, the loan speed is also very fast. It can be loan within 2 days as soon as possible. Our cooperative banks are very cooperative."

Li Yujia thinks-

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This round of interest rate cuts have a relatively large promotion effect on rigid demand, improving demand and housing changes. At the same time, he emphasized that to stabilize real estate consumption, he also needs to work hard on residents' income. "If it is expected, even if the interest rate cuts can save a month of monthly to one thousand yuan, it is difficult to improve everyone's enthusiasm for buying a house."

Compared with the 5 -year LPR super expectation, the 1 -year LPR downgrade has weakened, and it remains unchanged for 7 consecutive months. Li Yujia believes that this is based on the decisions of the current financing environment. "The bank's interbank borrowing and the financing interest rate of corporate bills have dropped to less than 1%, which is already a record low, and no need to drop again."

According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on August 15, in the first seven months of this year, real estate development enterprises were in place of 8877 billion yuan, a year -on -year decrease of 25.4%. Among them, domestic loans were 1103 billion yuan, a decrease of 28.4%; 5.3 billion yuan of foreign capital was used, an increase of 20.7%; self -raised funds of 3149.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.4%; deposit and pre -collection of 2857.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 37.1%; personal mortgage loans 141.69 billion yuan Yuan, a decrease of 25.2%.

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