How does the temperature rise by 2 ° C on wheat output and price?

The reporter learned from the Chinese Academy of Sciences that Zhang Tianyi, the Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, joined for 13 scientific research institutions such as the Royal Dutch Meteorological Research Institute and China Agricultural University to develop a collection simulation method based on global circular models, wheat growth models, and general balanced economic models. This model can analyze the impact of climate change and climate extreme events caused by the increase of 2 ° C in the future of the global wheat output, price and supply chain caused by the global wheat supply chain. The study was published on August 19, 2022 at the One Earth (influencing factor 14.994).

The results of the research show that under the temperature increase of 2 ° C world, the fertilization effect of CO2 can effectively offset the loss of production caused by temperature increase. In the future, global wheat output may increase (about 1.7%). However, unlike traditional views, the increase in production has not led to a decrease in global wheat prices. Studies have found that the output of wheat exporting countries in mid -to -high latitudes increases, while the output of low -latitude wheat importing countries has decreased. This further expanded the supply and demand gap between agricultural products, deepened the traditional wheat international trade pattern, and led to an increase of 6.2%of global wheat prices. Regional comparative research results found that under the temperature increase of 2 ° C in the future, when global wheat output is at a low valley, consumer prices at low latitudes and many wheat importing countries will generally exceed wheat exporting countries located at high latitudes. This not only increases the economic burden on the population of wheat importing countries, but also is not conducive to the construction of the main grain capacity of these countries, making them in a passive situation in the guarantee of food production safety.

Source: CCTV News Client (CCTV reporter Chu Erjia) Title: Xinhua News Agency Guangzhou Daily · Xinhuacheng Editor: Lin Weilin

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