LPR interest rate cuts help the private sector "broad confidence", and the subsequent monetary policy still has space

Zhang Aoping/Wen on August 22, the People's Bank of China authorized the National Bank of China Interbank Borrowing Center to announce that on August 22, 2022, the loan market quotation interest rate (LPR) was: 1 -year LPR was 3.65%, and LPR of 5 years or above was as a 5 -year or above. 4.3%. The above LPR is valid before the LPR is released next time. The 1 -year LPR decreased 5 basis points from the previous month, and the LPR of more than 5 years decreased by 15 basis points from the previous month.

The LPR reduction is mainly driven by the preliminary policy rate reduction (August 15, the central bank's MLF operation and the public market reverse repurchase operation have decreased by 10 basis points). LPR is a representative quotation bank. According to the bank's loan interest rate on the best customer, the price is quoted by the MLF interest rate, that is, "LPR = MLF interest rate (policy interest rate)+commercial bank plus points", all financial institutions should be the main main thing Refer to LPR for loan pricing. When the LPR quotation is quoted, it will comprehensively consider factors such as their own capital costs, risk premiums, and market supply and demand. LPR will fully reflect the changes in market interest rates in a timely manner.

Since the start of the new round of interest rate cuts in December 2021, LPR has lowered 4 times. In December 2021, 5 basis points were reduced at a 1 -year LPR, and the 5 -year LPR was 4.65%. In January 2022, the 1 -year LPR was 3.7%, and the 5 -year LPR was 4.6%. Develop 10 basis points and 5 basis points again. LPR remains unchanged in February, March, and April in 2022; in May 2022, the 1 -year LPR was maintained at 3.7%, and the 5 -year LPR downgrading 15 basis points was 4.45%. In June and July 2022, the LPR remained unchanged; in August 2022, the 1 -year LPR was 3.65%, and the 5 -year LPR was 4.3%, which again lowered 5 basis points and 15 basis points.

After a lapse of 3 months, the LPR started the interest rate cut again, and the 5 -year LPR once again reduced the 15 basis points. The main reason is that although the current economy continues to resume the development trend, there are still slight fluctuations, and the private sector is difficult to relay government departments to achieve its efforts, and the economy is difficult to achieve endogenous recovery (that is, corporate loan investment and resident loan consumption).

From the perspective of specific data, in July, the new social integration was 756.1 billion yuan, a new low since 2017. The relevant subjects representing the market independent financing willingness of the market, the number of residents' medium- and long -term loans increased to 248.8 billion yuan year -on -year. The increase in loans from a year -on -year to less than 147.8 billion yuan, showing the two weak trend of total and structure.

Judging from the PMI data of the Economic Pioneer, PMI recorded 49.0%in July, and fell to the contraction range again (March 49.5%, April 47.4%, May 49.6%, June 50.2%, July 49.0%), reflecting The level of economic prosperity in my country has fallen, and the foundation of recovery still needs to be stable.

In addition, from the perspective of large, medium and small enterprises PMI, large and medium -sized enterprises have fallen to contraction range again, while small enterprises have been in the contraction range for a long time. In July, the PMI of large enterprises was 49.8%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month; the PMI of the medium -sized enterprise was 48.5%, a decrease of 2.8 percentage points from the previous month; the PMI of small enterprises was 47.9%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points from the previous month. Since this year, this year Continue in the contraction range. Among them, compared with the production and operation of large enterprises, the development expectations of large enterprises have continued to be weaker. This is the "sequelae" caused by the multi -round impact of more than two years of epidemic and multi -round impact.

The author believes that the "key" of the economy to realize endogenous recovery is the development confidence of the market subject, especially the development confidence of SMEs. Resident consumption in the private sector changes with the expectations of income. Only residents' income is expected to improve can residents increase consumption. If the income is expected to be good, the enterprise needs to achieve investment development, especially the small and medium -sized enterprises that contribute to more than 80%of the urban employment to achieve investment development, and the premise of enterprises to achieve investment development is to have confidence in development. Therefore, the premise of the private sector is that the market subject has confidence in development. The greater the confidence, the greater the effort, and otherwise.

In addition, because of wide currency (increasing basic currency) to wide credit (physical use currency), there is a key "wide confidence" in the middle. At present, due to insufficient confidence in private sector, there is still greater obstacles in the real economy.

On July 29, 2022, the Politburo Conference clearly required the macro policy part, "Macro policies must actively act as a active demand. The fiscal and monetary policy must effectively make up for the lack of social needs." In terms of monetary policy Reasonable sex, increase the credit support for enterprises, and make good use of policy banks to build investment funds for new credit and infrastructure construction. "

On August 18, 2022, the Executive Meeting of the State Council pointed out that "the targeted increase in financial and monetary policy support the real economy, further consolidate the foundation of economic recovery, and maintain economic operation in a reasonable range."

The author believes that this time the LPR interest rate cut reflects that under the premise of taking into account the short -term and long -term, long -term, economic growth and stable prices, internal equilibrium and external equilibrium, it is firmly actively actively actively actively actively actively, helping the private sector "broad confidence" , To achieve wide credit. In addition, subsequent monetary policy will still maintain strategic determination, maintain marginal loose positions, and will not rush to turn.

If the incident of super -expected black swan and gray rhinos in the future economic development, new downward pressure on the economy, or market entities, the expectations and confidence of the development of small and medium -sized enterprises are still weak, the endogenous recovery of the economy is insufficient, and the monetary policy is still.With space, the total tools are still in the policy toolbox, and structural policies will continue to make efforts.(The author of this article is the Dean of the Institute of Extraction)

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