"Brother Hot Pot", falling to the bottom of the sea

Source | Bohufn

Author | Dongli

"Bye with all the troubles, say all the joy to all happiness ..." Behind this birthday wishes that made countless netizens "smell the wind", the 28 -year -old Haidilao, who was launched for 3 years, was happy. stand up:

Profit warning, closing stores, and shrinking market value, like a "Sword" to the former "hot pot brother", then# Put down the "altar".

"Gui", "over -service", "blind expansion" ... In the storm of public opinion, we seem to see a "sore" Haidilao.

The script of Haidilao changed from a prosperous to declining, or the "gambling game" after the outbreak of 2020.

"Bottom"

In 2020, the epidemic was coming, restricted food, takeaway stopping, shortage of ingredients, closed personnel, and the catering industry was full of mourning, and over 320,000 catering stores closed down.

However, the bitter days are still behind. With the repeat of the epidemic in various places, the restaurant restaurant has been closed for several days. The "three big mountains" of high rent, manpower, and ingredients are crushed. To 935,000; in the first half of this year, this number reached 373,000, which has exceeded 2020.

Just when the entire industry is reducing costs and efficiency and "more live one day", Zhang Yong, the founder of Haidilao, made a judgment of "the epidemic will end within 3 months" in June of that year, and Leading Haidilao embarked on the road of "bottoming" that expanded against the trend.

At that time, Haidilao was full of confidence in the arrival of the "after the epidemic season", and believed that it was a good time to seize more market share and eat more dividends. In 2020 and 2021, 544 and 421 stores were opened. During the peak period, Haidilao's total number of global stores was as high as 1,597.

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But Haidilao is blindly confident. In 2021, Haidilao ushered in the first annual losses since its listing, with a loss of 4.163 billion yuan, which is equivalent to losing all the profits in the past three years. The market value of Haidilao has evaporated more than 330 billion yuan.

If more than 3.65 billion yuan of losses in 2021 are the one -time loss and impairment loss of long -term assets brought about by nearly 300 restaurants, then revenue in the first half of 2022 is expected to decline by 17 %, and the highest pre -losses are 2.97.97 Where does the profit early warning of 100 million yuan come from?

It is still the sequelae of "blind expansion".

In addition to the repeated domestic epidemic, fixed expenses and employee cost squeezing profits, under the "Woodpecker Plan", Haidilao closed nearly 80 stores in the first half of 2022, resulting in a one -time and minus of about 255 million to 327 million yuan. Value loss.

The so -called "Woodpecker Program" is a shrinking and expansion strategy proposed by Haidilao in November last year, and strengthening internal management. It aims to find out "pests" that affect the performance of the store, including overseas stores, and take improvement measures.

The impact of the epidemic is naturally not to be ignored. In fact, it is not just Haidilao. The performance of the entire hot pot track in the first half of this year is difficult to speak.

Langbu Bingbu has also issued a profit early warning recently. It is expected that the revenue in the first half of 2022 was 2.16 billion yuan, a year -on -year decrease of 29%. The net loss is expected to reach 290 million yuan, the loss of nearly 5 times the losses year -on -year. Another catering listed company Jiu Maojiu is expected to revenue of 1.899 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year -on -year decrease of 6.1%, and a net profit of about 55 million yuan, a year -on -year decrease of 70.4%.

What makes Haidilao even more headache is that during the period of the epidemic, the catering industry did not usher in retaliated consumption, only the "guerrilla" type of food and consumption -downgraded attitude.

Many netizens said, "The epidemic is closed at home and learned to cook at home, and suddenly found that I can also support myself." You can also change the pattern according to the taste, and you have no special expectations for eating. "

The weakness of consumption directly leads to a decline in the turnover rate of hot pot business that is not just needed.

From 2018 to 2020, the average turnover rate of Haidilao decreased year by year, 5 times/day in 2018, and a slight decline in 2019 to 4.8 times/day. By 2020, due to the raid of the epidemic, the turnover rate of Haidilao has fallen further to 3.5 Times/day, it dropped directly to 3 times/day in 2021.

Some securities institutions have estimated that the three -day/day turnover rate is the profit and loss balance line of Haidilao Store, which falls below this value, which means that it is in a micro -profit or loss state.

With the#people do not like to eat Haidilao#topic, discussing the entire network, causing the revenue of Haidilao's revenue, I am afraid not only the chain reaction caused by the epidemic, but also the consumer reputation.

"Moat" lost

The reason for the decline in the mouth of Haidilao is its increasingly expensive price. Many netizens directly called "can't afford" and "too expensive, I don't deserve".

In April 2020, Haidilao was criticized by netizens for its "revenge price increase". For example, a piece of potato was 1.5 yuan, a bowl of rice was 7 yuan, and per capita consumption went straight to more than 200 yuan. Even though Haidilao restored the original price in the discussion of public opinion, the amount of dishes was visible to the naked eye. Back.

Earlier, the red 10 yuan Haidilao self -guided hot pot, which seemed to be a wool -wool person to take advantage of Haidilao, but in fact, it was all Haidilao diners to pay. They are all converted to the price of Haidilao's dishes. Potatoes of 1.5 yuan can be bought in the vegetable market. Some professionals in the industry have pointed out that the three major factors that affect the reputation of catering brands are taste, service and cost -effectiveness. However, Haidilao has not had a particularly prominent explosion in terms of taste and products for many years, but the prices are constantly rising, so cost -effectiveness is considered lower and lower.

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In addition to the price increase, the lack of service, the lack of taste, the immigration of Zhang Yong, and the health issues are also indispensable. According to incomplete statistics, Haidilao appeared on the hot search list last year more than 35 times, and there were many negative topics.

As we all know, Haidilao first rely on high -quality services. For example, free continuation of fruit platter, unlimited lemonade, nail service, birthday performance, dolls when dining alone, and the legendary "there is no chance to pour water by yourself" ... Young netizens ridiculed to "perverted services", but also circled a group of loyal fans and made the service into their own business cards.

However, with the expansion of the management radius, Haidilao's proud service has begun to do not follow. It is understood that Haidilao employees have been promoted from ordinary partners to store managers, with an average of six or seven years. In the context of the rapid expansion of stores, the number of outstanding and senior store managers is generally generally expanded.

Some netizens bluntly said: "I feel that the response of the service staff is very slow" and "the service is getting worse and worse."

And with the improvement of the overall service quality of the catering industry, more and more customers are no longer willing to pay for the high price of Haidilao. The post -80s and post -90s consumers who grow up in the era of material plenty of material pay more attention to the product itself, and have a negative attitude towards excessive service and intervention.

For example, the Bagu hot pot, which rely on the hairy belly, transformed the category of Focusing on the cable hotpot in 2012, and changed its name to "Ba Nu Mao Belly Belly Hot Pot", creating its own "explosive product".

In addition, the hot pot industry may have entered the "Gao Wei" war. The new forces of hot pot have been "strange" to create "deputy brands" and "hot pot+", and recruit customers with a compound dining experience.

For example, make up for the "hot pot+milk tea"; thank you for the hot pot, barbecue, milk tea, and drinks; Dalongzhang opened a sub -brand Xiaolong 燚, Chen Pan spicy hot hot hot hot hot hot hot hot hot hot hot, cooked paddling, Niu Hua Eight Eight Eight Mother -in -law, fisherman fish, etc., diverse categories test water.

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In the capital market, the new forces of hot pot also performed strongly. In June 2021, Bagu received 500 million yuan in financing; Sister Sister Lao Hot Pot, Brother Zhou, Chaotianmen Wharf, etc. also received hundreds of millions of yuan in financing; Cantonese -style hot pot chain brand Lao Wang, sprinting Hong Kong stocks IPO; Qixintian also delivered the Table Stock Exchange on January 12 this year.

Looking back at the losing money of the old hot pots such as Haidilao and Laibubu, the hot pot track is playing "the two days of ice and fire". There are obviously more, cheaper, and restoration of hot pot diners, and Haidilao has gradually "fell out of favor".

Self -rescue

In the case of slightly declining the main business of hot pot, Haidilao is also actively looking for a new growth curve.

In July of this year, Haidilao established the "Community Operation Division", forming a community operation model of "takeaway+community+live broadcast+online mall", which is striving for takeaway and prefabricated vegetables.

In fact, Haidilao has launched takeaway services a long time ago, and has grown rapidly. Its financial report shows that from 2019 to 2020, Haidilao's takeaway business rose from 449 million yuan to 718 million yuan, an increase of 60%. However, the proportion of takeaway services accounted for Haidilao's revenue. In 2021, the annual revenue of Haidilao's takeaway business was 706 million yuan, accounting for only 1.7%of the total revenue.

However, as soon as the front foot was exerted, the rear -footed sea was hurting the eyes of college students. On August 19, a major student in Hangzhou, Zhejiang claimed that he ordered Haidilao takeaway at Meituan takeaway. When he was eaten, he suddenly fry the pan. "After cooking for ten minutes, it exploded, and it was hot oil everywhere."

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Haidilao responded that after the incident, they contacted the customers in the case, and they would bear the cost of consultation and refund the meal fee. According to verification, the customer first put the bottom material when preparing for meals, and then add water without stirring.

Many netizens believe that "hot oil does not release water" is a common sense, and this "pot" should not be carried back. However, Haidilao's lunch box is too thin, and whether it provides sufficient process instructions and security reminders has caused a lot of doubts. After this incident, Haidilao's takeaway business may be affected.

In terms of prefabricated dishes, Haidilao launched a series of semi -finished dishes "Open" on multiple e -commerce platforms in early 2020, selling 16 dishes, including palaces, spicy chicken chicken, tomato potato roast beef, sauerkraut fish, big plate chicken, etc. Essence

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In the first half of this year, Haidilao also launched Haidilao hot pot "Youth Package" and the third -party takeaway platform on its official WeChat mini -programs, as well as prefabricated dishes such as crayfish, sauerkraut fish, and pepper fish. According to statistics, Haidilao Cabin -prefabricated dishes have reached 10,000 boxes on the first week of listing.

In terms of store operations, Haidilao also tried to build other formats other than catering. For example, in August last year, the new store type was launched. In March this year, the barbecue ingredients were launched, and peripheral products such as blind boxes and digital collections were launched. Another direction of going to sea or Haidilao. On July 13 this year, Haidilao's overseas business subsidiary, SUPER HI (Special Sea International), submitted a prospectus to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

The prospectus shows that as of March 31, 2022, Tshahai International has opened 97 restaurants in 11 countries on the four continents. In 2021, revenue achieved revenue of US $ 312 million, an increase of 41.1%, but the losses further increased to $ 151 million, and the cumulative loss of more than 237 million US dollars in three years.

The inversion rate indicator in Twita International in 2021 is also lower than that of Haidilao's 3 times per day in restaurants in mainland China, from 4.1 times/day in 2019 to 2.1/day in 2021. It can be seen that overseas business performance has not brought new growth to Haidilao.

Under the crisis of domestic hot pot business, Haidilao also aimed at other formats of overseas markets and other food and catering. In the case of not much and overall losses, it is the only way to make up for shortcomings and return to the benefits and deliciousness of catering dishes itself. Perhaps Haidilao "recover" customers and reshape the brand image.

Reference source:

1. Mustang Finance: The market value fell to 329.7 billion yuan! Haidilao suffered a "middle -aged crisis"?

2. Dongfang.com: There are nearly 300 stores a year, people don't like to eat Haidilao? The reason why netizens summarize are just one word

3. CCTV: Haidilao has a pre -loss of more than 200 million yuan in the first half of the year. Can the layout of takeaway and prefabricated vegetable business be rescued by themselves?

4. Internal reference of the owner of the meal company: In the first half of the year, these well -known catering brands disappeared forever

5. China Youth Daily: outer plans, takeaway, live broadcast ... The epidemic is repeated, how can the catering industry spend the cold winter

6. Titanium Media: Where does the hot pot market in the two days of ice and fire boil?

7. Investigation Research Report: [36 氪 Research Institute] Research and Consumer Research Report on Hot Pot Industry

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