Futures Weekly ｜ The commodity of the commodity fluctuates upward, Iran's oil is difficult to return to the international market.

Southern Finance All -Media reporter Weng Rongtao intern Sun Yongle Guangzhou reported

This week, the global economic recession trend has not yet eased. High electricity prices and electricity limit in some areas have brought a new round of reduction of production reduction. The demand for commodities is not expected to be in good cases, and the contradiction between supply and demand is prominent.

During the week (August 15th-August 19th), the commodity of commodities rose and decline, the energy chemical sector was doped in long and short, and high-electricity prices triggered the price of non-ferrous goods to reduce production. High temperature and drought weather also pushed some commodity prices in the short term.

From the perspective of the domestic futures market, the energy chemical sector rose 2.21%during crude oil, the fuel fell 7.14%, and the LPG rose 1.79%; the black sector, the iron ore plummeted 7.80%, the coke coal fell by 5.86%, the coke plummeted sharply 7.46%, glass fell 8.28%; non -ferrous metal sectors, Shanghai copper fell 4.15%, Shanghai zinc fell 1.19%, Shanghai nickel fell 5.31%; agricultural product sectors, palm oil fell 5.60%, white sugar fell 2.21%, pigs rose 4.57 by 4.57 %.

Hot spots of trading market:

Hotspot 1: The agreement is difficult to achieve in the short term, and Iranian crude oil will not return to the international market quickly

Recently, international oil prices have been concerned sharply due to economic recession. As the Yue nuclear negotiations have made progress, the market has closely paid attention to whether Iranian crude oil can return to the market. Goldman Sachs pointed out that in the short term, the three parties of Iran, the European Union and the United States are unlikely to obtain consensus, and the chance of reaching an agreement is very small.

"We still think that it is unlikely to reach an agreement in the short term, and the stalemate is not good for both parties," said a report by Goldman Sachs analyst. They also said that even if an agreement is reached, it may be "implemented in stages", and Iranian crude oil will not return to the market until 2023.

Considering that once the Iran nuclear agreement is reached, Iran will be able to significantly increase the export of crude oil without being sanctioned by the United States. Global oil price benchmark Brent has closed since February this year.

Goldman Sachs analyst said that if Iran resumes crude oil supply, our current estimate of Brent crude oil prices in 2023 ($ 125 per barrel) will be reduced by another $ 5 to $ 10. The market shows that Brent crude oil currently trades around $ 93 per barrel.

Hotspot 2: Russia announced "Beixi-1" from August 31st, which will stop for 3 days. European natural gas futures will reach a new high

On August 19th local time, Russia's Natural Gas Industry Co., Ltd. announced that the only turbine left by the "Beixi-1" natural gas project pipeline will be stopped for three days from August 31st to September 2nd. Natural gas transportation.

Since mid-June, Russia has reduced the natural gas transported by Beixi-1 to 40%of the maximum transportation volume, and then further dropped to 20%at the end of July. The maintenance of Russia's maintenance decision to increase the market's concerns about the deterioration of European energy shortage.

Although the European Union has been trying to find any source of fuels they can find in order to cope with the upcoming winter supply and heating problem, there is no suitable energy substitution solution. Since entering the summer, the rare high temperature and drought weather in Europe has made the European energy crisis worsen.

After Russia's statement was released, European natural gas futures prices rose. The TTF benchmark Dutch natural gas futures rose 1.64%to 244.550 euros/MWh. The two consecutive trading days have reached a record high, and this week has increased by 24.58%.

Industry policy news:

Maintenance 1: Overview of the futures market development in the first half of the year in the mid -term

In the first half of the year, the trading of the mainland futures market, in the first half of 2022, the futures market transactions were 3.046 billion hands (unilateral, the same below) and 25.748 trillion yuan, a year -on -year decrease of 18.04%and 10.08%, respectively.

In the first half of 2022, the global futures market transactions were 38.32 billion hands. The transaction volume of the mainland futures market accounted for 7.9%of the total global futures market, which was a decrease of 5 percentage points from 12.9%in the first half of 2021.

The global ranking of the exchange volume and major contract varieties, in the first half of 2022, in Mainland China Futures Exchange, the large -scale business houses, Zhengshang institutes, previous periods, and the global exchanges of the China Exchange of the Futures and options trading volume rankings ranked respectively. 8th, 10th, 12th and 26th.

In the ranking of various types of futures options in the world in the first half of the year, Chinese varieties occupy 16 among the top 20 of agricultural product varieties, 14 among the top 20 metal varieties, 5 of the top 20 of energy varieties, and 20 of the top 20 energy varieties. There are 3 seats in the strong China.

The listing of new varieties, as of the release of this report, the Mainland futures market has been listed in 5 varieties since the beginning of the year, including 1 period of delivery and 4 options. Among them, the China Financial Futures Exchange was listed on the CSI 1,000 stock index futures and 1,000 stock index options; the Dalian Commodity Exchange was listed on Huangdou No. 1 options, yellow soybean 2 options, and soybean oil options.

Maintenance 2: Indonesia plans to levy nickel export tax

As the world's largest nickel -reserve country, Indonesia is no longer willing to be exporters with nickel resources, but hopes to participate more in the refining processing of nickel, power battery production, and even the production of electric vehicles, thereby improving the country's global electric vehicles worldwide The status in the industrial chain and earn more added value.

On Thursday, local time, Indonesian President Joko Widodo revealed that the country may tax nickel exports this year. If it is implemented, Indonesia will become the first developing country in Asia to tax on carbon emissions. He also said that he hoped that Tesla could not only produce power batteries in Indonesia, but also put electric vehicle production in Indonesia. Indonesia has a "ambitious goal" to achieve zero emissions by 2060.

Nickel, coal and palm oil are the main export products of Indonesia. Earlier this year, Indonesia had temporarily banned palm oil exports to control inflation, shocked the global market, and prompted global palm oil prices to soar, at the same time exacerbated global inflation pressure.

Looking to the performance of the market outlook:

Energy chemical sector:

Crude oil: At present, the macro -faced atmosphere has been warming. After the previous pessimistic emotional release, the macroex and short -term suppression of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes slowed down, and the price of crude oil futures at home and abroad has a stable driving force. However, crude oil has been dragged down by the global economy, and the three major energy institutions have reduced the demand for crude oil this year and next to make the supply and demand of the oil market rising. With the implementation of the OPEC+oil -producing country in August, the dividend of production reduction policies since the epidemic will be exhausted, and the supply of oil markets will be lost. At the same time Crude oil demand expectations. Therefore, from the perspective of the medium and long term, the excess pressure of global crude oil supply and demand will still exist in the future. It is expected that the oil price in the market will lack the driving force for continuous rebound and maintain the bottom -up stability in the short term. (Baocheng Futures)

Black system:

Iron ore: This week's iron ore price is under pressure. Although the total amount of the Australian -Pakistan iron ore and the volume from the port has declined significantly, and once supported the price of the ore, the current inventory of the iron ore port continued to accumulate, and the loose supply and demand loose pattern continued. In addition, the steel mill still maintains low inventory operation. A small amount. As the price of steel weakened, the market sentiment was frustrated, and the future price of iron ore gradually declined. Next week, iron ore's future price may be suppressed first. In this issue, the inventory of the iron ore port continues to rise, but the increase has been significantly reduced; the operating rate of the steel plant's blast furnace continues to increase, the demand for iron ore spot is expected to further increase, and the spot in the long monthly contract is deeper. (Ruida Futures)

Nonferrous metal sector:

Shanghai Zinc: This week, the main contract price of Shanghai Zinc is a high trend of the future price. The main zinc smelting factories in Europe will be closed due to high energy costs. The zinc industry giant Nyrsta issued a statement saying that it will be maintained in the zinc smelting plant in the Netherlands from September 1st. The outer market rose sharply, and the Shanghai zinc rose. Energy disturbances are frequent, and the market is concerned that the scale of production reduces production is high; in China, due to the decline in the prices of by -products such as sulfuric acid, the cost of the smelting plant is increasing, and the processing fee has been raised. With limited, the supply end has not changed. In terms of demand, traditional consumption off -season, poor downstream delivery emotions and weak transactions; car production and sales data released by the release have increased year -on -year, but the performance of real estate data is not well dragged down, and the overall consumption is weak. In terms of inventory, there are no signs of stable accumulation. (Ruida Futures)

Agricultural product sector:

Pig: Pig prices have risen slightly this week. After the "Central Yuan Festival", the consumption of consumption was exhausted, and the increase in pig prices narrowed. The pigs out of the pigs have been reduced, pig prices have risen, breeding fences are sold, and they are forced to collect pig difficulties. The market supply has decreased. In the late week, the supply shifted from tight to loose. It is still in the off -season of consumption in late August, but the opening season in September and the preparation of the early Mid -Autumn Festival have some boosting demand for pigs. As the high temperature in the south passes, demand may gradually appear. From the perspective of the market market, the problem of insufficient supply of pigs and pork in August is still not very prominent. Supply may shift phases from tightness to loose, so the price of pigs will increase to a certain extent. High temperature weather continues in some parts of the south, the market demand is average, the demand season still needs time to be fulfilled, and the epidemic will also adversely affect the consumption of pigs. The price of pigs is expected to operate next week. (Hehe Futures)

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