The LPR will be announced in August, and the space is lowered or 10 base points

According to CCTV News, the executive meeting of the State Council held on the 18th to deploy measures to promote the reduction of corporate financing costs and personal consumer credit costs, and increase financial support for the real economy.

The State Frequently pointed out that the current economy continues to resume development, but there are still slight fluctuations. It is necessary to implement the deployment of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, increase the financial and monetary policy to support the real economy, further consolidate the foundation of economic recovery, and maintain economic operation in a reasonable range. Activate the local special debt limit space in accordance with the law. Improve market -oriented interest rate formation and conduction mechanism, give full play to the guidance of the loan market quotation interest rate, support the recovery of valid demand for credit, and promote the reduction of comprehensive financing costs of enterprises and personal consumer credit costs.

The July economic data released recently showed that the "collapse" appeared in the credit social integration in July, and financial data showed a full range of weakened features. Since August, the demand for credit has continued to weaken and the economic "steady growth" pressure has increased. On August 15, the central bank officially "interest rate cuts", which stimulated the steady growth of credit.

Next week, the quotation interest rate (LPR) of the loan market for one -year and 5 -year loan will be announced. Many analysts believe that the central bank's MLF (medium -term borrowing convenience) 10BP has released a stronger "stable credit and steady growth" signal. It is expected that the probability of LPR (loan market quotation interest rate) will increase significantly in August, which does not rule out that the amplitude exceeds expectations.

Zhou Maohua, a macro analyst of Everbright Bank, told the First Finance of the First Finance that the policy orientation was relatively clear, the domestic economy was short -term fluctuations in the recovery of the complex environmental impact, and the financial and monetary policy was moderately increased to consolidate the foundation of the economic recovery. Earlier, the central bank's policy interest rate was intended to guide financial institutions to reduce the cost of financing in the real economy and stimulate the vitality of the micro -subject. It is expected that the LPR interest rate will follow up this month to promote the rebound of the real economy financing.

The chief economist of CITIC Securities clearly believes that, on the one hand, after the reform of the LPR formation mechanism is improved, the 1 -year MLF interest rate has a greater impact on the LPR quotation. Considering that the current banking costs have dropped, the pressure on the debt side will be significantly reduced. The bank provides space for LPR quotes to increase points. In summary, the LPR regulation of LPR may exceed 10bp. On the other hand, the probability of LPR asymmetric lowers is greater. In the case where the demand for medium- and long -term loan needs to be boosted, the voltage -drop -length LPR interest rate will effectively reduce the financing costs of residents and enterprises and improve their willingness to increase leverage.

Since 2022, the People's Bank of China has implemented the decision -making and deployment of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, put steadily growth in a more prominent position, increased the implementation of stable monetary policy, better play the dual functions and structural dual functions of monetary policy tools, strengthen credit to strengthen credit Policy guidance helps market players to develop, and resolutely support the stability of the economic market.

In June of this year, LPRs of one -year and 5 -year LPR were 3.70%and 4.45%, respectively, decreased by 0.1 and 0.2 percentage points from December of the previous year.

Obviously, experience has proved that LPR reduction can bring rapid repair to credit. Looking back at history, corporate credit growth is more affected by LPR. As the impact of the epidemic gradually weakened, LPR reduction will have a good effect on loans. In contrast, the residential loan seems to be not sensitive to the changes in LPR, but observing the marginal changes that increased the value year -on -year, it can be found that the response of China -long loans based on personal housing mortgage loans to 5 -year LPR reduction is more response. Obviously fast.

According to the China Monetary Policy Implementation Report in the second quarter of 2022, in terms of the effectiveness of LPR reform, since this year, the 1 -year and 5 -year LPR decreased by 0.1 and 0.2 percentage points respectively. The monetary policy transmission mechanism of interest rates is more unobstructed, and corporate loan interest rates are new lows. Guide interest rate self -discipline mechanism Optimize the formation of the upper limit of deposit interest rate self -discipline, establish a market -oriented adjustment mechanism for deposit interest rates, and guide deposit interest rates to follow market interest rate changes.

Wang Yifeng, chief analyst of the Everbright Securities Financial Industry, predicts that the LPR curve is moved downward, and the 5Y-LPR is reduced by 10bp or higher. In the second quarter, the China Monetary Policy Implementation Report was attached to the "central bank guidance" in front of the LPR transmission chain, which increased the flexibility of the central bank for LPR quotation guidance: First, it may require inductive factors, such as downgrading or MLF interest rate; The second is to reduce the range, and it may not necessarily be synchronized with the MLF interest rate. Combined with the current market situation, it is expected that the one -year and 5 -year LPR curve will be moved downward, and the 5 -year LPR will be reduced by 10bp or more.

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