The steel export situation is "reversed" for three months: Is the overseas manufacturing industry okay?

Economic Observation Network reporter Li Ziyi in May, June, and July, the exports of Chinese steel increased significantly three months in a row, and the opposite situation was formed three months ago.

According to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs, in July 2022, my country exported 6.671 million tons, an increase of 17.7%year-on-year; from January to July, the cumulative exported steel was 40.73 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6.9%.

Look at the data of June and May: In June 2022, China Exporting Steel was 7.557 million tons, an increase of 17.0%year -on -year; in May 2022, China Exporting Steel was 7.759 million tons, an increase of 47.2%year -on -year.

In the first four months of 2022, steel exports are still in a state of decline. In April, China's exported steel was 4.977 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 37.6%; from January to April, the cumulative exported steel was 18.156 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 29.2%.

From April to May, why is this division?

On August 19, Wang Guoqing, director of the Lange Iron and Steel Research Center, analyzed to the Economic Observation Network that exports remained high from May to July, mainly due to the low base of the same period last year. In May 2021, China's steel export policy changed, and the export tax refund was canceled. This caused the export to decline sharply from May, thereby "significantly increased" in May this year.

On the other hand, Wang Guoqing believes that the export price of Chinese steel in the first half of the year still has certain advantages. "In the context of Russia and Ukraine's conflict this year, the export prices of Turkey, CIS and other regions are significantly higher than that of my country, which has driven China's export orders significantly. Measurement. "Wang Guoqing said.

She believes that China's export price advantage is not obviously insufficient, and the export orders have shrunk. It is expected that it will still show a decline in the later period. At present, the downward pressure on the global economy has increased, and the currency tightening under inflation has risen, making the demand for steel weakened. Overseas steel prices are falling. At present, some export prices are lower than China.

Export orders look good, does it mean that the overseas economy has recovered?

Wang Guoqing believes that the situation may not be the case. Export orders in June and July were higher. As ahead, there are factors for preliminary order delay. The latest data shows that JP Morgan's global manufacturing PMI fell in July to the lowest year, which reflects the overall situation of overseas manufacturing. In fact, under many factors such as the impact of the epidemic, inflation pressure, geopolitical conflict, and tightening monetary policy, the global economic recovery momentum has weakened.

On August 6, the data released by the China Logistics and Procurement Federation showed that in July 2022, the global manufacturing PMI was 51.2%, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month. New lows. In terms of section, in July, the PMI of Asia, Europe, the Americas and Africa's manufacturing industry decreased to varying degrees from the previous month, and all hit a stage low.

The global manufacturing PMI has a new low at the stage. If this indicator can largely explain the problem, it means that the growth rate of global manufacturing is continuously slowing down, the global economic recovery moment big.

It is also based on concerns about the downside of the global economy. In the "World Economic Outlook" report in July, the International Monetary Fund will reduce the global economic growth rate from 3.6%to 3.2%in 2022.

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