Nancai fast comments: monetary policy "total amount+structure" is prominent, and the credit pattern has changed positively

On August 19, the central bank issued a detailed introduction to the structural monetary policy tools, saying that China's structural monetary policy tools are tools for the central bank to guide financial institutions to invest in credit direction, exert accurate drip irrigation and leverage leverage. The incentive method supports financial institutions to increase credit investment in specific areas and industries, and reduce corporate financing costs. Structural monetary policy tools have both total and structural dual functions.

Judging from the recently released economic data, the manufacturing PMI returned to Rongku Line in July, the CPI increased year -on -year high, and the added value of industries above designated size increased by 3.8%year -on -year. The total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by only 2.7%year -on -year. Real estate investment continues negative growth year -on -year. At the same time, the increase in social financing in July was 756.1 billion yuan, which was 319.1 billion yuan less than the same period last year. The trend of M2 and social financing was separated. The sluggish financing needs of market entities were in sharp contrast to the liquidity of the loose personality.

A series of economic and financial data shows that the current foundation of economic recovery is still not firm, and the macroeconomic market in the third quarter is fully supporting the majority of domestic expected domestic expectations. A few days ago, the People's Bank of China issued the "Implementation Report in the Second quarter of 2022" (hereinafter referred to as the "" Report ""), which gave specific guidelines on the implementation of monetary policy in the next stage. Combined with the latest documents of the central bank and the content of the "Report", the "total+structure" policy orientation and the active changes in the layout of credit resources provided an important idea for subsequent monetary policy directions.

The guidance of the "total amount+structure" of monetary policy is highlighted. In the second half of the year, the central bank pays more attention to the structural role of monetary policy on the premise that the liquidity continues to ensure that the liquidity is reasonable and abundant, and realize the "precise drip irrigation" of the real economy. The "Report" mentioned that "Increase the implementation of stable monetary policy and give full play to the dual functions and structural dual functions of monetary policy tools. Comprehensive use of multiple monetary policy instruments to maintain reasonable liquidity and abundance, maintain monetary supply and social financing The scale increases reasonably, and strive to achieve the best results of economic operation. "

Judging from the previous 7 months, the year -on -year growth rate of M2 and social financing scale was faster than the nominal GDP growth rate. In addition, the liquidity of the currency market remains abundant, and the level of DR007 is lower than the inverse repurchase operating interest rate, which shows that the characteristics of the total amount of monetary policy instruments have been better played. Considering that the economic and financial data in July was lower than market expectations, on the 15th of this month, the central bank reduced the sequel to MLF. At the same time, MLF and 7 -day inverse repurchase bid interest rates decreased by 10 basis points again. Expected policy signals.

In recent years, the central bank is committed to classifying the stable functions of monetary policy to macro -prudential (MPA), and at the same time, on the basis of ensuring abundant total amount, it actively expands the structural function of monetary policy through tools. At present, the world's commodities have encountered the impact of supply, and monetary policy must handle the dual targets of stable prices and maintain growth, and the difficulty of coordination will gradually increase. According to the rules of Ding Bogen, the implementation of N policy goals must be supported by not less than N. Therefore, the central bank has always tried to break through the total thinking mode. Growth policy intention. Considering that the current market liquidity remains reasonable and abundant, the central bank pays special attention to foreign input inflation in the "Report" or will cause domestic structural inflation. At present, domestic inflation levels are in a controllable stage, and it provides a rare period of opportunity for the central bank's implementation of monetary policy.

It is foreseeable that in the future, the main tone of the main body of monetary policy will not change, and the open market operation will be expanded in the form of equal sequels. At the same time Improve the efficiency of monetary policy conduction, and use structural tools to shift from the current wide currency to the wide credit of the credit market. Considering that corporate loans are mostly in the medium and long -term, short -term interest rate decline is not significant to reduce the cost of corporate financing. In the later period, it can be considered as “reduction of“ reduction of interest rates ”and“ lock shorts ”. The structural tools such as the agricultural branch small re -loan cooperate with each other, and reasonably guide the downward and long -term interest rates to effectively achieve the intention of financial efficiency to support the real economy.

In addition to the promotion of the "total amount+structure" of monetary policy, the central bank has specifically mentioned in the "Report" column 3 that since 2010, the credit structure has changed positively, showing the "manufacturing industry to build a bottom -up and universal bottom, universal universal, universal generalization, universal universal generalization, universal universal generalization, universal universal generalization, universal universal generalization, universia Huixiaowei has steadily improved, the high level of infrastructure has been slowed down, and the real estate rising and declining. " The structural change in credit has changed, and it has no connection with the various structural policy tools adopted by the central bank in recent years.

It is still necessary to see that from the data of the first half of the year, the proportion of manufacturing loans is still low, and the improvement of the credit structure is not a matter of time, but it takes a long time.

At the same time, the increase in the proportion of inclusive micro loans indicates that the early agricultural branch small retraine loans have achieved practical results. In the future, the central bank's policy will continue to work hard to break the three orientation of commercial bank liquidity, capital and interest rates.

The active trend of the emergence of credit structure needs to continue to be consolidated. At the same time, it is also necessary to actively increase the proportion of indirect financing such as stock bonds, optimize the social financing structure, avoid excessive dependence on credit channels, and help the enterprise's balance sheet quickly repair.

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