Economic Daily: Single -month financial data fluctuation does not need to panic

After the scale of social financing and RMB credit data was released in July, it caused widespread market attention. Many analysts believe that the growth rate of the two data was significantly lower than market expectations in the month, and some even described it as "collapse". But in fact, excessive interpretation of single -month data is not scientific. If the financial data of the past few months is combined, it is not difficult to find that financial support for the real economy is still stable, far from being caught in a "collapse" panic.

Seasonal factors are important reasons for the short -term fluctuations in financial data in July. In July each year is a traditional tax payment month, and the fiscal deposit recovery effect is obvious. The existence of the bank in the middle of the year, so the financial data in July often fluctuated significantly. In addition, the bank credit investment is not uniform, and it is easy to form a "big and small month" for credit. Especially in the past two years, due to the repeated epidemic, monthly credit growth and increased social financing scale fluctuations have been significantly enlarged, and the phenomenon of "large and small month" is even more prominent. In June of this year, credit was more increased compared with the same period last year. The demand for corporate credit financing was released in June. The growth rate in July was also reasonable. In March of this year, the growth rate of credit growth and social financing was significantly higher than that of the same period last year. The two data in April also increased less.

Therefore, observing financial data is not accurate to see only a single month, and it should be stretched for a long time. Based on the data of the first seven months, the financial system has more support for the real economy and can effectively meet the financing needs of the real economy. In the first seven months of this year, the cumulative RMB loan increased by 14.35 trillion yuan, an increase of 515 billion yuan year -on -year. In the first 7 months, the increase in social financing was 2.177 trillion yuan, which was 2.89 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. The two data increased significantly compared to the same period last year. Under the continuous efforts of fiscal and monetary policy, the increase in basic currencies has increased, driving the deposit of residents and enterprise departments significantly increased. Broadly (M_2) has remained more than 11%for many consecutive months. At the end of May, M_2 increased 11.1%year -on -year. In June, 11.4%, at the end of July, M_2 increased by 12%year -on -year, reaching the highest level in the past six years, reflecting the sufficient domestic currency supply.

From the perspective of trend, with the overall domestic epidemic prevention and control situation, the economic activities are accelerating, and it is expected to drive the growth of financing demand. Recently, the monetary policy has further exerted its strength, and the People's Bank of China has reduced policy interest rates such as the interim borrowing convenience (MLF), which will promote the comprehensive financing cost of the real economy and the steady interest rate of corporate loans. Repair and corporate relief to stimulate credit needs. In addition, the 800 billion yuan credit quota and the newly established 300 billion yuan financial instruments will also strongly support infrastructure project financing. Accelerating the implementation of key projects will effectively drive upstream and downstream credit demand growth and achieve expansion of investment expansion investment , Bring employment and promote the comprehensive effect of consumption, help stabilize the macroeconomic market.

Next, the implementation of my country's stable monetary policy will continue to increase, and monetary credit will remain steady and moderate. At the same time, the total amount and structural dual functions of monetary policy tools still need to play a good job, actively respond, boost confidence, and make a good cross -cyclical adjustment, take into account short -term and long -term, economic growth and price stability, internal equilibrium and external equilibrium. "Big Water Manfang", does not exceed currency, provides more powerful and high -quality support for the real economy. It is also necessary to maintain reasonable liquidity, increase the credit support for enterprises, make good use of policy development financial instruments, focus on supporting the construction of infrastructure, maintain a reasonable growth of currency supply and social financing scale, and strive to achieve the most economic operation realization. Good result.

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