European "gas shortage" impact nitrogen fertilizer production agencies say that global fertilizer use is expected to decrease by 7%

21st Century Business Herald reporter Shu Xiaoting Beijing Beijing report

On August 16, Gazprom, Russia, said that the price of natural gas in Europe this winter may soar 60%. Gazprom said in a statement: "The price of natural gas in Europe has exceeded $ 2,500 per thousand cubic meters. According to conservative estimates, if this trend continues, the price of natural natural gas this winter will exceed $ 4,000 per thousand cubic meters."

Recently, due to the impact of hot weather on energy demand and transportation, coupled with the continued tension of natural gas supply in the situation of Russia and Ukraine, the price of natural gas in Europe has soared, and high costs forced the amount of ammonia to damage. In July component.

The World Bank said that high investment costs, interruptions and trade restrictions are the main driving factor for the sharp rise in chemical fertilizer prices. According to Cru Group estimates, the soaring natural gas prices as the main raw materials have caused European nitrogen fertilizer to be reduced by 1/4.

International fertilizer prices have recovered expectations

Recently, the end of the fertilizer season and the recovery of international food prices have affected the high level of fertilizer prices. However, considering that the international epidemic situation is still severe and the international political situation is relatively complicated, the unbalanced supply and demand of the international fertilizer area continues, and Li Yubo, an analyst of Jinlian Creative Fertilizer, told reporters from the 21st Century Economic Herald that when the international energy pattern is facing reshaping, the international energy pattern is facing reshaping, and the international energy pattern is facing reshaping. With the approaching of a new round of fertilizer, the international fertilizer market still has expected expectations.

Earlier, since the upgrade of Russia and Ukraine's conflict at the end of February, sanctions and anti -sanctions have led to Russian fertilizer exports restricted, and market concerns about fertilizer supply have further pushed the price of high chemical fertilizer.

From a data point of view, Russia has an important influence on the global fertilizer market: the country accounts for nearly 25%of the global nitrogen fertilizer trade volume, and is the world's largest nitrogen fertilizer exporter, the second largest potassium fertilizer supply country and the third largest phosphate exporter.

Li Yubo told reporters that as a commodity, the fundamentals of supply and demand are the decisive role that affects the trend of fertilizers. Data show that the total global fertilizer consumption in 2021 was 203.8 million tons, an increase of 6.3%year -on -year. World fertilizer production is mainly concentrated in Asia, North America, and Europe. The three continents account for more than 90%of the total global fertilizer production. Latin America, South Asia and other places are the global net inflow area.

"Regional differences in supply and demand determine the huge fluctuations in the international fertilizer industry." Li Yubo pointed out.

Global food output or damage

The International Fertilizer Association (IFA) predicts that global fertilizer use will decrease by 7%. IFA CEO Alzbeta Klein said: "The decrease in the consumption of chemical fertilizers this year has increased the risk of significant decline in the number of crops in the next season, which means the decline in grain output, and eventually more people face hunger and hunger. risk."

The main producer CF Industrial Holdings Company's senior sales vice president Bert Frust also pointed out earlier this month that the nitrogen market is still very tight, and limited supply means that the food may occur in 2023 later this year may occur in food. shortage.

Membrane fertilizers are called "grain food", and the contribution rate of increasing food production is above 40%. GRO Intelligence's modeling in July 2022 shows that reducing the use of nitrogen fertilizer in less optimistic situations will cause global corn output to decrease by 1.4%, rice output decreases by 1.5%, and wheat output will decrease by 3.1%.

Fan Ruohuan, a researcher at the Bank of China Research Institute, told the 21st Century Economic Herald reporter that the price of urea in nitrogen fertilizer and the price of natural gas is high. Under the context of the continued context of Russia and Ukraine, the global natural gas prices have continued to rise. In the future, global nitrogen fertilizer supply will further intensify, and a large number of farmers will be forced to reduce the amount of nitrogen fertilizer, which will lead to a certain decline in global grain output.

- END -