Willing to the wine industry: The epidemic has become a central reporter. In the third quarter, can the inner volume of liquor in the third quarter exacerbate the high -end high -end volume?

This article is based on public information, which is used only for information exchange and does not constitute any investment advice.

Production/company research room wine industry group

Text/Huai Liangyue

On the evening of August 17, the semi -annual report was released on the wine industry (600702.SH), and 22H1 achieved revenue of 3.025 billion yuan, an increase of 26.5%year -on -year, and net profit attributable to mother was 836 million yuan, an increase of 13.6%year -on -year; of which 22Q2 achieved revenue of 11.41 revenue 11.41 100 million yuan, a year -on -year decrease of 16.3%, and the net profit attributable to his mother was 305 million yuan, a year -on -year decrease of 29.7%.

Although many brokerage firms have issued a lot of research reports simultaneously, the capital market does not seem to buy it. On August 18, the stock price of the wine industry fell sharply, and the closing of the market fell 5.77%. Fortunately, the transaction volume on the same day showed that there was still funds in the relatively low stock price.

01. The epidemic becomes a performance back. In the first half of the year, the sales cost of sales in the first half of the year increased by 51.30% year -on -year

Since the release of Shuijingfang (600779.SH), the market has been psychologically prepared for the white wine industry's performance in the first half of the year. However, the interim reporting of the wine industry still broke through the psychological bottom line of many people. Because in 2021, the revenue of the wine industry increased by 133%in the first half of the year and the net profit increased by 347%. This performance was too dazzling, which made some investors psychological expectations high.

As for the reasons for the expected performance in the first half of the year, the explanation of the liquor industry is not surprising. That is, the epidemic in the second quarter brought a great impact. Various banquets were significantly reduced, affecting the sales of sub -high -end liquor. Starting from Shuijingfang, except for the Guizhou Maotai (600519.SH), which is riding, almost all of them are the back pots with a decline in the performance of liquor companies in liquor companies.

People in the industry believe that although this is the truth, the dazzling performance of Moutai in Guizhou is still like a mirror, which reverses the strength of different liquor brands to fight external risks. Only the best liquor like Moutai can truly cross various risks. Maintain the company's performance continuously and stable. As for the Gujing Gongjiu (000596.SZ), which was rewarded, the market seemed to be controversial about this performance express report. Previously, a well -known brokerage company even issued a short report.

However, the company's research room noticed that in the face of the epidemic, he was willing to make some efforts in the first half of the year. In the first half of the year, the company's revenue cost increased by 30.15%year -on -year, and sales costs increased by 51.30%year -on -year. In this regard, the company said that the changes in operating costs were mainly due to the increase in the increase in the corresponding operating costs of sales revenue in this issue, and the change in sales expenses was mainly due to increasing employees' salary and marketing promotion activities. During the same period, the amount of sales costs with the same volume as the wine industry was only 19.27%, because in the second quarter, the company faced the epidemic to greatly shrink marketing promotion activities.

Of course, the adversity expansion of the wine industry has achieved a certain effect. Oriental Securities (600958.SH) Research Report believes that at the end of 22H1, the number of company dealers was 2456 (YOY+20.2%), an increase of 47 month -on -month, and the average income of 22H1 was 10.68 million yuan (YOY+8.4%). The overall company channels still maintained Expansion trends.

02. In the second quarter, the rising price of the series was reluctant. Where is the driving force for the growth of sales in the third quarter?

Like Shuijingfang, many securities firms are hopeful for the sale of the wine industry in the third quarter. Generally speaking, the second quarter is the off -season of liquor sales, and in the third quarter, it is just the opposite. It is the peak season of liquor sales. This quarter is not only a traditional Mid -Autumn Festival, but also for the Eleventh National Day holiday.

Specifically, what are the advantages of selling in the wine industry in the third quarter?

Oriental Securities believes that, in addition to the expansion of the channel in the first half of the year, the balance of the contract liabilities at the end of the 22H1 of the wine industry was 432 million yuan, an increase of 17.0%year -on -year, and an increase of 10.4%month -on -month. From the perspective of batch price, the company's core products have remained stable since 2022, and the taste is willing to rose slightly in June; the company guarantees the amount of channel inventory and profit through the control of the price. With the ease of the epidemic, some delayed banquet orders are expected to be released in the Mid -Autumn Festival, and then it is expected to promote the company's volume in the third quarter to optimize the recovery of performance in the second half of the year.

Tang Jun, an analyst of Soochow Securities (601555.SH), and Wang Yingjie released a research report that the high -end wine H1 performance of the wine industry, H2 also depends on the series. Q1 Crystal is willing to string goods and price randomness. In February, the crystal was suspended, and the sacrifice was stable to stabilize the price; The price has been done. Since the beginning of this year, the batch price is stable at about 360-370 yuan; the number of dealers is 2456 as of the end of Q2, a year-on-year+412, and +47 month-on-month. The operating ideas have not changed, the channel performance is relatively healthy, the core market inventory remains 2 months, looking forward to the Q3 peak season, and it is expected to enter the stage of volume on the basis of this year.

Some people in the circle told the company's research room that the performance of the epidemic in the second quarter was affected by the performance of most liquor companies. Each company did a lot of work in the third quarter, taking back the losses caused by the epidemic in the first half of the year. For example, Jiangsu Real Estate Famous Wine (603369.SH) launched a hundred -day marketing conference in late June after the epidemic was relieved. Because of this, it is estimated that the liquor circle in the liquor circle in the third quarter is very powerful. What is the current forecast is difficult to count. 03. Performance pressures Falls first, and the institutions enter and exit Super Cattle Sanda for two consecutive quarters to reduce their holdings for two consecutive quarters

The stock price curve always walks in front of the performance, and it is good for goodness. In fact, it is not satisfactory to the performance of liquor companies. In fact, the market has already expected, and the stock price of most companies has already begun to fall.

As far as the wine industry is concerned, the company's stock price closed at 164.08 yuan/share on August 17, a decrease of 19.25%from the same period last year. After the performance of the interim report on August 18, the company's stock price fell sharply and closed at 154.61 yuan/share, a decrease of 23.54%from the same period last year. The performance of the pressure stocks fell first, which looked very clearly in the company's stock price weekly K -line trend.

The company's research room noticed that as the stock price of the wine industry fell from a high level, the attitude of the institution and the large households also differentiated.

In 2021, among the top ten shareholders, they did not see public funds. Only super large households such as Fan Shebin and Yunnan Zhuoyi Investment Management Co., Ltd.-Zhuo Xun No. 1 Fund. This is a private placement. Drop a low suction.

At the end of June last year, Fan Shebin was in addition to the position, and Zhuo Xun No. 1 Fund was reduced. From the third quarter of last year to the end of the year, both maintained the same operation. In the first quarterly report of 2022, the operation of Fan Shebin and Zhuo Xun No. 1 Fund reversed, Fan Shebin began to reduce its holdings, and Zhuo Xun No. 1 Fund began to increase its positions. The same action has been maintained until June 30. Judging from the operation of the past one year alone, Zhuo Yan No. 1 Fund grasped the company's stock price trend more accurately.

However, public information shows that Fan Shebin entered the top ten shareholders of the wine industry in the third quarter of 2020. At that time, the company's stock price was near 30 yuan/share. In the fourth quarter of that year, the stock price rose. High point of repetition). Therefore, the Niu San completely participated in the ten -fold market for the liquor industry, and the current reduction price was still at a high level. In the first half of the year, Fan Shebin reduced its holdings of 3.79 million shares. Based on the average price of 174 yuan/share in the first half of the year, the current amount of this Niu San set has exceeded 530 million yuan.

The latest interim report shows that, in addition to Super Niu San Fan Shebin and Zhuo Xun No. 1 Fund, among the top ten shareholders, institutional investors are relatively mixed, and their investment operations are inconsistent. Fifth is the Macau Financial Authority, a QFII agency, with an increase of 596,000 shares in the second quarter. Next to it is the China Merchants Certificate Terring Fund. This liquor investment in Da La also increased its holdings in the second quarter. The next two public offerings -Huitianfu consumption and wealth value are slightly reduced. The tenth is everyone's Life Insurance Company, a new institution in the second quarter.

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