[Cai Zhi Headline] Will the drought cause the price and vegetable price of food?Global food supply will face challenges

This year, my country has strengthened the supply of agricultural policies, and summer grains have achieved high production increase, and early rice in various places has completed the harvest. The area of ​​autumn grains increased compared to the previous year. At present, it is generally better in the growth of the field crops, but it has swept the country's continuous high temperature and drought weather to bring severe challenges to the production of autumn grain.

Picture source: CCTV News

From the current point of view, my country's grain supply is sufficient. The local finished food and oil reserves in the main urban areas of large and medium -sized cities and the market are volatile areas have reached 15 days or more to prevent significantly enhanced market risk capabilities. The rice harvest is harvested for many years. It lasted for many years to produce greater than the need, abundant inventory, sufficient supply, and the rice market continued to weaken. This year, Puatai Rice has been listed in large quantities. The country's routine to put the minimum purchase price of rice every week. The local reserve rice at all levels has further accelerated the progress of rotation. The market supply pressure has increased, and the transaction price continues to decline. However, the southern region continues to be high -temperature drought, rice production is expected to increase, and the prices of rice in some areas have signs of rising.

The rapid development of dry feelings in the Yangtze River Basin

The Ministry of Water Conservancy issued a drought report on the 11th that the dryness of the Yangtze River Basin developed rapidly.

At present, the water level of the Yangtze River and Dongting Lake and Poyang Lake are 4.7 meters to 5.7 meters lower than the same period. At the same time, the water storage of small reservoirs in some areas is seriously insufficient.

Drought reports stated that the drought in the Yangtze River Basin developed rapidly. Anhui, Jiangxi, Hubei, Hunan, Chongqing, Chongqing, and Sichuan's six cities and cities in 6 provinces and cities in Sichuan suffered 9.67 million mu, and 830,000 people were affected by drought supply. At present, the water sources of large and medium -sized irrigation areas in the Yangtze River Basin can be effectively guaranteed. Some of the end areas of the irrigation area and "Wangtiantian" are severely drought; some of the small reservoirs or mountain spring water and streams are used as a decentralized water supply project. Influence, some people need to pull water to send water to ensure living water.

The production of crops in the southern autumn grain formation formation is a critical period

Agriculture is an industry that "eat by the sky", especially the food production is greatly affected by weather.

According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Ministry, the area of ​​autumn grains exceeded 1.3 billion mu.

From the current point of view, my country's grain supply is sufficient. The local finished food and oil reserves in the main urban areas of large and medium -sized cities and the market are volatile areas have reached 15 days or more to prevent significantly enhanced market risk capabilities. The rice harvest is harvested for many years. It lasted for many years to produce greater than the need, abundant inventory, sufficient supply, and the rice market continued to weaken. This year, Puatai Rice has been listed in large quantities. The country's routine to put the minimum purchase price of rice every week. The local reserve rice at all levels has further accelerated the progress of rotation. The market supply pressure has increased, and the transaction price continues to decline. However, the southern region continues to be high -temperature drought, rice production is expected to increase, and the prices of rice in some areas have signs of rising.

The middle rice in the south entered the pumping period, and Xia corn entered the pumping period. The China Meteorological Administration pointed out that it is currently the critical period of the production of crops in the southern autumn grain. It is also the period when the temperature and water are the most sensitive. High temperature superimposed drought will lead to a decline in the activity of pollen and the effect of affecting the strength of autumn grain.

The price of dishes in July increased by 12.9% year -on -year

High temperature and drought weather may adversely affect the crops such as local areas. However, it is effectively supplemented by the "North Caipan South Transport" and "Western East Transport". The overall summer and autumn vegetable supply is guaranteed.

On August 16th, the average price of 28 vegetables monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs was 4.61 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.6%from August 15th, and 1.5%from August 1st 4.68 yuan/kg.

There are two main parts of vegetables that have declined recently: some are bean -angle vegetables that are recently listed; the other is vegetables that have gradually increased in market volume, including Gansu, Hebei and other cold vegetable production areas. , Western blue flowers, onions, etc.

Zhang Jing, chief analyst of the Vegetable Market Analysis and Early Warning Team of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, said that the current price of most vegetables in the country has remained stable, and a small part of vegetable prices fluctuate slightly.

On August 5th, the average weighted price of vegetables in Xinfa Land in Beijing was 2.92 yuan/kg, a decrease of 9.03%from 3.21 yuan/kg on July 29. The main reason is that the weekly decline is, mainly due to the stubble vegetables in the summer of the summer. Cabbage, cabbage, celery, white radish, lettuce, zucchini, group lettuce, and loose leaves are expanded than last year. Fast lower.

What is the price trend of vegetables in the second half of the year? Analysts said that the current national vegetable area is 105.721 million mu, a year -on -year increase of 3.996 million mu; the production of vegetables in mid -July was 29.384 million tons, an increase of 1.504 million tons year -on -year. This year, the area and output of vegetables in the country have increased, and the foundation of stable production is better.

Multi -party take action to resist drought and keep

Ministry of Agriculture and Rural: 300 million yuan in agricultural production disaster relief funds

According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Ministry, since July, high temperatures and less precipitation in most areas in the south have led to some drought in the end of the irrigation district, hilly gang and "Wangtiantian". According to the China Meteorological Administration, the high temperature weather in the south will continue in the next two weeks, bringing severe challenges to the production of autumn grain.

Picture source: CCTV News

At present, there is still about 50 days from the large area of ​​autumn grain. In order to cope with the recent drought conditions in the south, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has sent expert groups and technology teams to go to various places to guide drought resistance.

On August 12, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and the Ministry of Finance issued 300 million yuan in agricultural production disaster relief funds to the 13 provinces and regions to support the disaster -stricken areas to accelerate the restoration of agricultural production. On August 13, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs issued an urgent notice to further deploy the harvest of high temperatures and droughts.

At the same time, sent 25 provincial -wrap -in -the -shelf work group and 12 technology teams to the key provinces of autumn grains and key areas affected by high temperature and drought, guiding the implementation of key measures to promote disaster -keeping harvest, strive to reduce disaster losses, go all out to seize autumn grain harvest Essence

Ministry of Water Conservancy: Special Action for Drought Resistance and Water Supply for Water Supply

Liu Weiping, deputy minister of the Ministry of Water Resources, said that the current autumn grain crops such as rice in the Yangtze River Basin are in the critical period of irrigation. In order to curb the rapid decline in the water level in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and ensure that the water conservancy area along the irrigation district and the town along the line, the Ministry of Water Resources decided to implement the "Special Action for Drought Restaurant Drought and Water Supply for Drought and Water Supply for Drought and Water Supply for Drought and Water Supply for Water Supply for Water Supply and Water Supply for Water Supply.

Schedule the upstream stall reservoir group with the Three Gorges Reservoir as the core, the "Four Water" Reservoir Group, and the "Five River" reservoir group of the "Four Water" Reservoirs in the Dongting Lake, and increase the flow of the warehouse to replenish the downstream. The masses drink water safety to ensure the demand for irrigation water for autumn grain crops.

On August 11, the Ministry of Water Conservancy issued a drought report saying that the drought in the Yangtze River Basin developed rapidly, and the Ministry of Water Resources launched a grade IV emergency response to the six provinces and cities of Anhui, Jiangxi, Hubei, Hunan, Chongqing, and Sichuan.

At present, the water level of the Yangtze River and Dongting Lake and Poyang Lake are 4.7 meters to 5.7 meters lower than the same period. At the same time, the water storage of small reservoirs in some areas is seriously insufficient.

The drought report stated that the Ministry of Water Conservancy pays close attention to the rain, water, drought conditions in the Yangtze River Basin, and timely release drought warning information; notify the water conservancy departments of relevant provinces and cities, requiring early drought resistance measures to reduce the effects of drought and losses. At the same time, the organization of the Yangtze River Basin emergency water volume dispatch schedule is organized, and dispatching measures are proposed for key dry areas, and 51 major reservoirs such as the Three Gorges and Danjiangkou are planned in advance to reserve water sources for drought resistance. Drought and categorized by the dry provinces and cities, and do their best to do a good job of drought -resistant drinking and water protection irrigation.

Source of the Three Gorges Reservoir to the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River: CCTV News

At present, all localities are going to go to high temperatures and anti -drought, organize the masses to carry out self -rescue, adopt dredging, pumping water, wells, and finding water sources to maximize the irrigation area, and strive to achieve less production in the severe disaster area, the capacity of light disaster -stricken areas, the capable areas of the disaster area. Stable, increased production in the disaster -free area. Strengthen the saving water system, strengthen the unified management and dispatch of water resources, prevent wasting water resources, and improve the utilization rate of water resources. At the same time, it has seized the timely organizing and organizing artificial rainfall operations in a timely manner, effectively alleviating the drought of some towns and villages. Moreover, drought and insects. All localities should pay attention to grassland greedy moths, rice "two relocations" pests, rice plague, soybean "disease green", etc., to achieve "rushing grain".

In the long run, we must continuously improve the disaster prevention and mitigation ability of food production. In -depth implementation of "hiding grain in land, hiding grain in technology", continuously promote the construction of high -standard farmland, improve the level of land and water resources, continuously improve the level of grain breeding research and development, and continuously develop new varieties of high temperature resistance and drought resistance. Strengthen agricultural production meteorological protection services, use satellite remote sensing technology to improve disaster weather warnings, diseases and insect warnings, improve the level of disaster prevention and reduction meteorological services, improve the level of field management, and truly realize the transformation from "watching the sky" to "knowing the sky and doing". Further improve the level of food security.

Foreign media: Global food supply will face challenges

According to Lianhe Zaobao, due to drought in some parts of India in the world's largest rice exporting country, rice shortage may become the next challenge facing global food supply.

The drought has reduced Indian rice planting area to the lowest level in about 3 years. The total rice planting area has dropped by 13%so far this season.

India supplies rice to more than 100 countries including Bangladesh and China, and undertakes 40%of rice supply in the world. Traders are worried that the decline in rice output will make India's work in response to inflation.

Some traders estimate that by September, the export price may climb from the current $ 365 per ton (equivalent to RMB 2465) to $ 400 (equivalent to RMB 2701).

In addition, Europe's drought this year may be the worst drought in 500 years. With the continued worsening of the drought, the energy use of water resources based on water resources has also encountered difficulties, which has made the European energy crisis even worse. The European Commission said that nearly half of the EU countries suffered droughts, and agriculture, energy production and water supply were affected.

According to the latest evaluation report of the European Commission, about 44%of the EU countries are in the "warning" of drought. It is expected that the food output of food production will decline this year, including France, Romania, Spain, Portugal, and Italy this year. A report from the Joint Research Center of the European Commission's Scientific Service Institution predicts that due to the hot and dry summer, the output of EU grain corn, sunflowers and soybeans will drop by 8-9%, far lower than the average level of 5 years.

The French Ministry of Agriculture is expected to decrease by 18.9%this year's corn harvest. Especially sowing corn is facing the embarrassing situation of water deficiency.

In the Bohe region of Italy, severe drought leads to the dry paddy fields. Local farmers estimate that the rice harvest this year may be "chopped".

The German Farmers Association recently warned that under the circumstances of continuous drought, we must be alert to the occurrence of crop harvesting and rising prices.If it does not rain as soon as possible, the harvest may be reduced by 30%or 40%.Land drought, lack of water resources, reduced food production, the economic losses caused by the weather this year or twice the previous decades.The earth has sounded alert, and it is urgent for its "cooling".

According to the Financial Association, Eric Hansotia, the CEO of AGCO, one of the three major agricultural machinery giants in the world, warned on Monday that global food shortage may continue until the end of this year, even next year.

(WeChat public account "Caizhi Headline" comprehensive from: Xinhuanet, CCTV News, Economic Daily, China News Network, etc.)

Edit: Fenghua

School pair: Yuan Kai

Review: Gong Zimo

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